Texas
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#30
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#43
Pace70.7#150
Improvement+0.1#171

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#22
First Shot+8.7#13
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#214
Layup/Dunks+5.6#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#209
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement+1.4#47

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#54
First Shot+5.0#51
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#208
Layups/Dunks+1.3#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#97
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#59
Freethrows-1.5#272
Improvement-1.3#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 4.0% 4.2% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 15.1% 15.5% 5.7%
Top 6 Seed 30.5% 31.3% 13.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.9% 64.7% 44.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.5% 62.4% 41.9%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 7.8
.500 or above 92.1% 92.8% 75.9%
.500 or above in Conference 61.0% 61.7% 44.8%
Conference Champion 4.4% 4.6% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.6% 5.1%
First Four5.6% 5.5% 8.1%
First Round61.4% 62.3% 40.4%
Second Round40.8% 41.5% 23.7%
Sweet Sixteen18.5% 18.9% 10.4%
Elite Eight8.0% 8.2% 4.1%
Final Four3.6% 3.7% 2.1%
Championship Game1.5% 1.5% 1.4%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.7%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 9
Quad 24 - 28 - 10
Quad 35 - 113 - 11
Quad 47 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 325   Incarnate Word W 88-56 98%     1 - 0 +19.2 +0.5 +16.0
  Nov 10, 2023 337   Delaware St. W 86-59 99%     2 - 0 +12.4 +2.5 +8.1
  Nov 15, 2023 249   Rice W 80-64 96%     3 - 0 +8.4 +1.8 +7.0
  Nov 19, 2023 155   Louisville W 81-80 87%     4 - 0 +1.5 +12.0 -10.4
  Nov 20, 2023 5   Connecticut L 71-81 28%     4 - 1 +8.8 +10.9 -2.8
  Nov 26, 2023 149   Wyoming W 86-63 91%     5 - 1 +20.9 +14.8 +6.6
  Nov 30, 2023 216   Texas St. W 78-60 96%    
  Dec 06, 2023 6   @ Marquette L 72-81 21%    
  Dec 09, 2023 358   Houston Christian W 99-68 99.8%   
  Dec 16, 2023 71   LSU W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 22, 2023 316   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 89-65 99%    
  Dec 29, 2023 101   UNC Greensboro W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 01, 2024 191   Texas Arlington W 82-65 94%    
  Jan 06, 2024 51   Texas Tech W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 09, 2024 36   @ Cincinnati L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 13, 2024 102   @ West Virginia W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 17, 2024 83   Central Florida W 82-72 81%    
  Jan 20, 2024 13   Baylor W 82-81 51%    
  Jan 23, 2024 24   @ Oklahoma L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 27, 2024 11   @ BYU L 74-80 29%    
  Jan 29, 2024 3   Houston L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 03, 2024 23   @ TCU L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 06, 2024 33   Iowa St. W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 10, 2024 102   West Virginia W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 17, 2024 3   @ Houston L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 19, 2024 44   Kansas St. W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 24, 2024 4   @ Kansas L 72-81 21%    
  Feb 27, 2024 51   @ Texas Tech L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 02, 2024 75   Oklahoma St. W 76-67 78%    
  Mar 04, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 79-85 30%    
  Mar 09, 2024 24   Oklahoma W 74-71 59%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.2 0.7 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.4 3.6 5.2 1.2 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 5.6 2.1 0.1 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 4.7 3.1 0.3 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.0 0.6 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.8 1.2 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 1.4 0.1 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.4 0.1 4.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.6 7.5 10.1 12.8 14.0 13.3 12.1 9.3 6.1 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 92.8% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 73.6% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.1
14-4 40.9% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 12.3% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.8% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 2.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.6% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 2.9 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.1% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 3.9 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.3% 99.6% 8.7% 90.9% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.6 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 12.1% 97.7% 7.8% 89.9% 6.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 3.2 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.5%
10-8 13.3% 91.2% 6.2% 85.0% 7.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.2 90.7%
9-9 14.0% 75.3% 5.3% 70.0% 8.9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.1 3.4 73.9%
8-10 12.8% 45.7% 4.0% 41.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.9 43.5%
7-11 10.1% 15.3% 3.4% 11.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.5 12.2%
6-12 7.5% 3.6% 2.1% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 1.5%
5-13 4.6% 2.1% 2.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
3-15 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Total 100% 63.9% 6.1% 57.8% 6.7 1.4 2.6 5.1 6.0 7.6 7.9 7.9 7.3 6.4 5.8 4.8 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 36.1 61.5%