Houston
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.2#3
Expected Predictive Rating+17.4#18
Pace61.9#339
Improvement-0.9#268

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#20
First Shot+3.6#84
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#8
Layup/Dunks-3.6#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#6
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#135
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement-0.3#217

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#2
First Shot+9.3#7
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#73
Layups/Dunks+8.2#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#84
Freethrows-0.1#201
Improvement-0.6#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.3% 8.7% 3.8%
#1 Seed 30.5% 34.5% 20.8%
Top 2 Seed 56.4% 62.0% 43.2%
Top 4 Seed 83.1% 86.9% 74.2%
Top 6 Seed 93.0% 95.2% 87.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% 99.3% 97.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% 99.1% 97.1%
Average Seed 2.8 2.5 3.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 96.5% 93.7%
Conference Champion 33.8% 36.3% 27.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round98.6% 99.1% 97.3%
Second Round90.2% 92.0% 86.0%
Sweet Sixteen64.5% 67.1% 58.5%
Elite Eight40.9% 43.6% 34.3%
Final Four24.3% 26.5% 19.2%
Championship Game13.9% 15.3% 10.4%
National Champion7.6% 8.5% 5.6%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 5
Quad 25 - 114 - 6
Quad 34 - 018 - 6
Quad 48 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 281   Louisiana Monroe W 84-31 99%     1 - 0 +43.7 +15.9 +33.2
  Nov 11, 2023 316   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-50 99%     2 - 0 +20.5 -1.0 +20.0
  Nov 13, 2023 162   Stetson W 79-48 97%     3 - 0 +28.1 +11.0 +20.9
  Nov 16, 2023 196   Towson W 65-49 96%     4 - 0 +14.2 +1.0 +15.5
  Nov 17, 2023 40   Utah W 76-66 79%     5 - 0 +20.9 +9.7 +11.4
  Nov 19, 2023 70   Dayton W 69-55 86%     6 - 0 +21.8 +15.2 +9.8
  Nov 24, 2023 195   Montana W 79-44 98%     7 - 0 +30.3 +13.7 +21.7
  Dec 01, 2023 43   @ Xavier W 72-66 70%    
  Dec 06, 2023 249   Rice W 85-58 99%    
  Dec 09, 2023 277   Jackson St. W 82-54 99.6%   
  Dec 16, 2023 19   Texas A&M W 70-65 69%    
  Dec 21, 2023 216   Texas St. W 74-49 99%    
  Dec 30, 2023 189   Penn W 79-55 98%    
  Jan 06, 2024 102   West Virginia W 73-55 95%    
  Jan 09, 2024 33   @ Iowa St. W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 13, 2024 23   @ TCU W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 17, 2024 51   Texas Tech W 70-58 86%    
  Jan 20, 2024 83   Central Florida W 76-60 93%    
  Jan 23, 2024 11   @ BYU W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 27, 2024 44   Kansas St. W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 29, 2024 30   @ Texas W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 03, 2024 4   @ Kansas L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 06, 2024 75   Oklahoma St. W 72-57 92%    
  Feb 10, 2024 36   @ Cincinnati W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 17, 2024 30   Texas W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 19, 2024 33   Iowa St. W 68-58 81%    
  Feb 24, 2024 13   @ Baylor W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 27, 2024 36   Cincinnati W 72-62 82%    
  Mar 02, 2024 24   @ Oklahoma W 66-63 61%    
  Mar 06, 2024 83   @ Central Florida W 73-63 80%    
  Mar 09, 2024 4   Kansas W 70-67 61%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 7.4 10.2 8.3 4.1 1.1 33.8 1st
2nd 0.3 2.7 7.5 7.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.0 5.3 1.4 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.3 4.1 0.8 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.6 0.9 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.1 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.4 7.5 10.8 13.8 16.0 16.0 13.3 8.8 4.1 1.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 99.9% 4.1    3.9 0.2
16-2 94.6% 8.3    7.2 1.1 0.0
15-3 76.8% 10.2    6.7 3.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 46.1% 7.4    2.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.4% 2.5    0.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.8% 33.8 22.2 8.5 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 1.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
17-1 4.1% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-2 8.8% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 1.3 6.6 2.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 13.3% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.4 8.2 4.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 16.0% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.7 6.7 6.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.0% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 2.3 3.3 6.9 4.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.8% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.9 1.2 3.6 5.0 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 10.8% 99.9% 14.2% 85.7% 3.9 0.2 0.9 3.0 3.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 7.5% 99.8% 10.1% 89.7% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 4.4% 99.1% 13.3% 85.9% 6.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
8-10 2.4% 87.6% 8.3% 79.3% 8.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 86.5%
7-11 1.3% 73.7% 6.2% 67.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 71.9%
6-12 0.5% 44.4% 3.2% 41.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 42.5%
5-13 0.2% 26.3% 9.1% 17.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18.9%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.8% 20.0% 78.8% 2.8 30.5 25.9 15.9 10.8 6.3 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.2 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 91.2 8.8