Penn
Ivy League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#189
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#210
Pace66.4#260
Improvement-2.3#344

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#129
First Shot-0.5#187
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#74
Layup/Dunks+0.3#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#204
Freethrows-1.6#268
Improvement-0.3#219

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#275
First Shot-2.0#243
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#262
Layups/Dunks-1.7#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#321
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#207
Freethrows+2.9#29
Improvement-1.9#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.1% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 13.7 14.8
.500 or above 31.1% 59.0% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 39.7% 53.0% 39.0%
Conference Champion 2.4% 5.5% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 9.0% 14.5%
First Four0.8% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round2.7% 4.0% 2.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Neutral) - 5.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 4
Quad 21 - 32 - 7
Quad 32 - 44 - 11
Quad 47 - 411 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 324   Bucknell W 80-61 85%     1 - 0 +6.2 +5.1 +1.7
  Nov 10, 2023 126   @ Saint Joseph's L 61-69 24%     1 - 1 -2.2 -6.8 +4.7
  Nov 13, 2023 16   Villanova W 76-72 10%     2 - 1 +16.3 +13.0 +3.5
  Nov 18, 2023 346   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 80-83 OT 77%     2 - 2 -12.4 -4.6 -7.4
  Nov 24, 2023 320   Lafayette W 74-72 83%     3 - 2 -9.6 +6.5 -15.8
  Nov 25, 2023 178   Belmont L 79-84 OT 58%     3 - 3 -8.8 -1.3 -7.4
  Nov 26, 2023 246   Monmouth W 76-61 71%     4 - 3 +7.6 +8.4 +0.9
  Dec 09, 2023 14   Kentucky L 69-86 5%    
  Dec 11, 2023 234   Howard W 78-73 68%    
  Dec 23, 2023 250   @ Rider W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 30, 2023 3   @ Houston L 55-79 2%    
  Jan 02, 2024 21   @ Auburn L 65-83 5%    
  Jan 06, 2024 276   Dartmouth W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 15, 2024 113   @ Cornell L 76-84 23%    
  Jan 20, 2024 138   Harvard L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 27, 2024 252   @ Columbia W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 02, 2024 222   @ Brown L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 03, 2024 87   @ Yale L 66-76 17%    
  Feb 10, 2024 60   @ Princeton L 64-77 11%    
  Feb 16, 2024 87   Yale L 69-73 34%    
  Feb 17, 2024 222   Brown W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 23, 2024 276   @ Dartmouth W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 24, 2024 138   @ Harvard L 67-73 30%    
  Mar 01, 2024 113   Cornell L 79-81 43%    
  Mar 02, 2024 252   Columbia W 76-70 70%    
  Mar 09, 2024 60   Princeton L 67-74 26%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 2.5 2.4 0.5 0.1 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.8 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.4 4.0 8.4 4.6 0.6 0.0 18.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.5 9.5 4.2 0.4 0.0 20.3 5th
6th 1.0 5.7 8.6 3.0 0.2 0.0 18.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.9 6.1 1.6 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.3 1.4 3.1 2.2 0.7 0.0 7.7 8th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.3 8.1 13.2 16.2 16.7 15.1 11.9 7.0 3.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
12-2 85.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1
11-3 59.7% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1
10-4 21.4% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-5 3.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.1% 19.4% 19.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-2 0.5% 16.0% 16.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
11-3 1.4% 13.9% 13.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
10-4 3.8% 9.0% 9.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.5
9-5 7.0% 6.3% 6.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.6
8-6 11.9% 5.5% 5.5% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.2
7-7 15.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 14.6
6-8 16.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 16.4
5-9 16.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 15.9
4-10 13.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.1
3-11 8.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.0
2-12 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.3
1-13 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
0-14 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%