Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#233
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#241
Pace71.5#124
Improvement+2.4#40

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#276
First Shot-2.6#253
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#248
Layup/Dunks-4.3#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#48
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#113
Freethrows-3.4#339
Improvement+2.3#28

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#161
First Shot+1.9#113
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#294
Layups/Dunks+3.9#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#191
Freethrows-2.4#301
Improvement+0.0#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.1% 35.3% 24.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 66.3% 69.2% 42.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 95.2% 88.7%
Conference Champion 37.7% 38.7% 29.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four13.8% 13.7% 14.6%
First Round27.4% 28.8% 15.9%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Neutral) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 21 - 8
Quad 414 - 515 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 42   @ New Mexico L 55-92 6%     0 - 1 -22.9 -16.9 -2.6
  Nov 11, 2023 81   @ Arizona St. L 52-63 12%     0 - 2 -1.7 -15.9 +14.7
  Nov 16, 2023 30   @ Virginia L 33-62 5%     0 - 3 -13.8 -22.4 +2.9
  Nov 18, 2023 11   @ Creighton L 50-82 3%     0 - 4 -13.0 -9.3 -6.8
  Nov 21, 2023 159   @ Oral Roberts L 63-65 26%     0 - 5 +1.2 -3.9 +4.8
  Nov 25, 2023 72   @ Drake L 71-77 10%     0 - 6 +4.4 +6.0 -2.0
  Nov 28, 2023 1   @ Purdue L 67-99 2%     0 - 7 -9.0 -0.5 -5.7
  Dec 16, 2023 361   N.C. A&T W 83-70 89%    
  Dec 17, 2023 224   Howard L 74-75 48%    
  Dec 21, 2023 142   Samford L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 06, 2024 320   @ Southern W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 08, 2024 329   @ Grambling St. W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 13, 2024 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-72 89%    
  Jan 15, 2024 362   Mississippi Valley W 76-57 96%    
  Jan 20, 2024 296   @ Alcorn St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 22, 2024 262   @ Jackson St. L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 27, 2024 344   Alabama A&M W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 30, 2024 330   Alabama St. W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 03, 2024 248   @ Prairie View L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 10, 2024 336   @ Florida A&M W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 12, 2024 351   @ Bethune-Cookman W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 17, 2024 329   Grambling St. W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 19, 2024 320   Southern W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 24, 2024 362   @ Mississippi Valley W 73-60 87%    
  Feb 26, 2024 355   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-75 75%    
  Mar 02, 2024 262   Jackson St. W 75-70 67%    
  Mar 04, 2024 296   Alcorn St. W 77-70 72%    
  Mar 09, 2024 248   Prairie View W 72-68 64%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.0 9.0 10.0 8.4 4.1 1.3 37.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.0 8.1 5.4 2.0 0.2 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.0 3.3 0.6 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 4.4 2.1 0.3 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.7 0.2 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.7 5.1 8.1 10.5 14.0 15.7 15.1 12.0 8.6 4.1 1.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 4.1    4.1 0.0
16-2 98.1% 8.4    7.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 83.0% 10.0    7.5 2.3 0.1
14-4 60.1% 9.0    4.7 3.5 0.8 0.0
13-5 25.7% 4.0    1.2 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.7% 37.7 26.7 8.3 2.3 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 75.9% 75.9% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3
17-1 4.1% 70.6% 70.6% 14.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.2 1.2
16-2 8.6% 62.7% 62.7% 15.1 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.7 3.2
15-3 12.0% 52.9% 52.9% 15.5 0.5 2.4 3.5 5.7
14-4 15.1% 43.1% 43.1% 15.7 0.1 1.5 4.9 8.6
13-5 15.7% 33.2% 33.2% 15.9 0.5 4.7 10.5
12-6 14.0% 24.5% 24.5% 16.0 0.1 3.3 10.6
11-7 10.5% 16.9% 16.9% 16.0 0.0 1.8 8.7
10-8 8.1% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.9 7.2
9-9 5.1% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.4 4.8
8-10 2.7% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.2 2.6
7-11 1.6% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.5
6-12 0.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.1% 34.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.9 8.3 21.7 65.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 80.2% 12.4 11.3 35.5 25.6 7.8