Yale
Ivy League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#91
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#127
Pace65.9#273
Improvement-1.5#282

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#82
First Shot+6.1#38
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#310
Layup/Dunks+3.4#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#145
Freethrows+1.5#94
Improvement-0.5#229

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#121
First Shot-0.3#187
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#40
Layups/Dunks+1.0#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#230
Freethrows+0.4#161
Improvement-0.9#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.5% 27.0% 17.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 13.3
.500 or above 88.9% 90.1% 69.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 92.9% 86.9%
Conference Champion 33.2% 33.8% 23.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.2%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round26.2% 26.7% 17.4%
Second Round5.8% 6.0% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.6% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 94.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 48 - 9
Quad 49 - 117 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 10   @ Gonzaga L 71-86 11%     0 - 1 +4.2 +5.9 -1.8
  Nov 12, 2023 125   @ Loyola Marymount W 83-80 49%     1 - 1 +8.6 +11.0 -2.4
  Nov 17, 2023 127   Colgate W 68-50 61%     2 - 1 +20.5 +3.4 +18.8
  Nov 18, 2023 117   Weber St. L 65-75 OT 59%     2 - 2 -6.9 -7.4 +0.8
  Nov 19, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb W 71-70 OT 72%     3 - 2 +0.4 -4.7 +5.1
  Nov 26, 2023 173   @ Rhode Island L 72-76 61%     3 - 3 -1.5 +9.7 -11.7
  Nov 29, 2023 261   Stony Brook W 79-71 90%     4 - 3 -0.3 +5.4 -5.6
  Dec 02, 2023 110   @ Vermont L 65-66 44%     4 - 4 +5.9 +3.6 +2.2
  Dec 06, 2023 308   Fairfield W 79-62 94%    
  Dec 11, 2023 268   @ Quinnipiac W 78-70 78%    
  Dec 22, 2023 5   @ Kansas L 64-79 8%    
  Dec 30, 2023 135   @ Santa Clara W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 03, 2024 224   @ Howard W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 09, 2024 232   @ Brown W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 15, 2024 246   Columbia W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 20, 2024 285   @ Dartmouth W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 27, 2024 150   @ Harvard W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 02, 2024 65   Princeton W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 03, 2024 194   Penn W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 10, 2024 121   Cornell W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 16, 2024 194   @ Penn W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 17, 2024 65   @ Princeton L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 23, 2024 121   @ Cornell L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 24, 2024 246   @ Columbia W 75-68 73%    
  Mar 01, 2024 285   Dartmouth W 76-61 91%    
  Mar 02, 2024 150   Harvard W 74-66 76%    
  Mar 09, 2024 232   Brown W 76-64 86%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.2 10.2 10.7 5.7 1.7 33.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 7.8 12.5 6.5 1.5 30.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.6 7.1 2.2 0.1 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.5 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.8 0.2 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 2.1 4.2 8.3 12.4 16.3 19.0 16.8 12.3 5.7 1.7 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
13-1 100.0% 5.7    5.4 0.4
12-2 87.4% 10.7    8.4 2.2 0.0
11-3 60.3% 10.2    5.2 4.5 0.5
10-4 22.0% 4.2    1.1 2.0 1.1 0.1
9-5 4.3% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 33.2% 33.2 21.7 9.4 2.0 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.7% 70.4% 56.1% 14.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 32.6%
13-1 5.7% 56.3% 52.2% 4.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.2 2.5 8.7%
12-2 12.3% 38.8% 38.1% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.5 1.1%
11-3 16.8% 32.9% 32.9% 12.2 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.3
10-4 19.0% 24.8% 24.8% 12.6 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 14.3
9-5 16.3% 20.8% 20.8% 13.3 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 12.9
8-6 12.4% 15.2% 15.2% 13.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 10.5
7-7 8.3% 14.2% 14.2% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 7.1
6-8 4.2% 9.4% 9.4% 15.5 0.2 0.2 3.8
5-9 2.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.9
4-10 0.7% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.1 0.7
3-11 0.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 26.5% 25.9% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 4.6 9.4 6.4 2.6 1.8 0.7 73.5 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 91.7% 5.5 20.0 11.7 1.7 26.7 21.7 10.0