James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#68
Expected Predictive Rating+22.1#3
Pace78.8#14
Improvement-1.4#281

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#36
First Shot+7.0#26
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#223
Layup/Dunks+1.8#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#20
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement-0.1#194

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#135
First Shot+5.0#44
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#346
Layups/Dunks+1.5#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#84
Freethrows-1.3#260
Improvement-1.3#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 3.0% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 5.6% 7.1% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.0% 57.9% 43.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.6% 15.4% 6.1%
Average Seed 10.4 10.2 11.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.5% 98.8%
Conference Champion 62.5% 65.4% 54.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.8% 4.3% 2.4%
First Round51.9% 55.5% 41.7%
Second Round17.9% 19.8% 12.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.8% 6.8% 3.1%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.0% 0.7%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Away) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 13 - 1
Quad 37 - 29 - 3
Quad 416 - 125 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 16   @ Michigan St. W 79-76 OT 17%     1 - 0 +21.1 +4.5 +16.1
  Nov 09, 2023 108   @ Kent St. W 113-108 2OT 53%     2 - 0 +12.0 +10.1 +0.4
  Nov 12, 2023 224   Howard W 107-86 89%     3 - 0 +15.2 +16.7 -3.9
  Nov 17, 2023 164   Radford W 76-73 84%     4 - 0 +0.0 +3.3 -3.2
  Nov 21, 2023 109   Southern Illinois W 82-76 65%     5 - 0 +10.0 +10.4 -0.6
  Nov 22, 2023 187   Fresno St. W 95-64 80%     6 - 0 +29.9 +19.2 +9.4
  Nov 29, 2023 321   Buffalo W 81-66 96%     7 - 0 +3.2 +4.9 -1.1
  Dec 09, 2023 206   @ Old Dominion W 80-73 74%    
  Dec 16, 2023 327   @ Hampton W 92-77 91%    
  Dec 19, 2023 356   Coppin St. W 87-62 99%    
  Dec 22, 2023 337   @ Morgan St. W 90-74 94%    
  Dec 30, 2023 213   Texas St. W 79-66 88%    
  Jan 04, 2024 174   @ Louisiana W 82-77 69%    
  Jan 06, 2024 185   @ Southern Miss W 82-76 69%    
  Jan 11, 2024 231   South Alabama W 83-69 91%    
  Jan 13, 2024 114   Appalachian St. W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 18, 2024 286   Louisiana Monroe W 85-67 94%    
  Jan 20, 2024 196   Marshall W 90-78 87%    
  Jan 24, 2024 206   @ Old Dominion W 80-73 71%    
  Jan 27, 2024 114   @ Appalachian St. W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 01, 2024 300   Coastal Carolina W 90-72 95%    
  Feb 03, 2024 206   Old Dominion W 83-70 87%    
  Feb 07, 2024 240   @ Arkansas St. W 84-75 78%    
  Feb 15, 2024 204   Georgia St. W 85-72 87%    
  Feb 17, 2024 313   Georgia Southern W 91-72 96%    
  Feb 21, 2024 196   @ Marshall W 87-81 70%    
  Feb 24, 2024 313   @ Georgia Southern W 88-75 88%    
  Feb 28, 2024 204   @ Georgia St. W 82-75 72%    
  Mar 01, 2024 300   @ Coastal Carolina W 87-75 86%    
Projected Record 25 - 4 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 9.0 14.8 17.3 13.2 5.3 62.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.9 6.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.1 1.1 0.1 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.0 7.8 12.0 16.9 18.4 18.0 13.2 5.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.3    5.3
17-1 99.8% 13.2    12.8 0.4
16-2 95.8% 17.3    15.3 1.9 0.0
15-3 80.6% 14.8    10.4 4.0 0.5
14-4 53.3% 9.0    3.9 3.9 1.1 0.1
13-5 21.8% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 62.5% 62.5 48.3 11.4 2.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.3% 94.2% 73.5% 20.8% 5.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 78.3%
17-1 13.2% 85.9% 67.9% 18.0% 9.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 1.9 56.0%
16-2 18.0% 69.7% 57.9% 11.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 7.9 2.5 0.0 5.5 27.9%
15-3 18.4% 55.1% 50.7% 4.4% 11.5 0.0 0.3 5.2 4.3 0.3 0.0 8.3 9.0%
14-4 16.9% 43.0% 41.7% 1.3% 11.8 0.1 2.1 4.6 0.5 0.0 9.6 2.2%
13-5 12.0% 33.6% 33.5% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.2%
12-6 7.8% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 12.2 0.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 5.7 0.0%
11-7 4.0% 23.8% 23.8% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.1
10-8 2.4% 15.8% 15.8% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.0
9-9 1.2% 15.9% 15.9% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
8-10 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 14.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.2% 11.6% 11.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 54.0% 47.4% 6.6% 10.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.0 2.5 4.5 19.2 16.9 2.6 0.2 0.0 46.0 12.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 96.9% 4.8 2.9 3.5 15.0 24.1 22.1 15.6 7.9 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.8