Wagner
Northeast
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#316
Expected Predictive Rating-9.2#312
Pace57.7#360
Improvement-0.1#193

Offense
Total Offense-7.1#338
First Shot-5.5#321
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#280
Layup/Dunks-4.2#322
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#90
Freethrows-0.9#243
Improvement+0.1#177

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#227
First Shot-2.7#270
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#99
Layups/Dunks-2.0#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#242
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement-0.2#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 100.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.3% 4.7% 3.5%
First Round1.8% 2.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 67.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 31 - 5
Quad 411 - 912 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 183   @ Fordham L 64-68 OT 17%     0 - 1 -2.6 -4.7 +2.0
  Nov 14, 2023 204   @ Rhode Island L 53-69 19%     0 - 2 -15.7 -15.3 -2.4
  Nov 18, 2023 54   @ Seton Hall L 51-72 3%     0 - 3 -8.6 -8.3 -2.9
  Nov 25, 2023 334   NJIT W 64-51 70%     1 - 3 -1.3 -5.9 +6.5
  Nov 28, 2023 48   @ Providence L 52-86 3%     1 - 4 -21.1 -12.4 -8.7
  Dec 02, 2023 208   @ Stony Brook W 60-59 20%     2 - 4 +1.1 -7.5 +8.7
  Dec 06, 2023 359   @ Coppin St. W 62-59 67%     3 - 4 -10.5 -9.1 -1.2
  Dec 10, 2023 295   Boston University L 59-73 54%     3 - 5 -24.0 -8.8 -17.0
  Dec 17, 2023 180   @ Fairfield L 51-63 16%     3 - 6 -10.4 -16.6 +4.8
  Dec 30, 2023 345   @ Manhattan W 68-56 55%     4 - 6 +1.7 +0.3 +3.0
  Jan 04, 2024 351   @ LIU Brooklyn L 67-69 60%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -13.5 -5.5 -8.1
  Jan 06, 2024 354   St. Francis (PA) W 71-56 80%     5 - 7 1 - 1 -2.7 -1.2 +0.4
  Jan 15, 2024 360   Stonehill W 64-54 83%     6 - 7 2 - 1 -9.2 -5.9 -1.7
  Jan 19, 2024 222   @ Merrimack W 71-65 21%     7 - 7 3 - 1 +5.6 +10.7 -4.4
  Jan 21, 2024 303   @ Sacred Heart L 61-66 35%     7 - 8 3 - 2 -9.9 -6.3 -4.3
  Jan 25, 2024 222   Merrimack L 44-60 38%     7 - 9 3 - 3 -21.8 -17.3 -7.8
  Jan 27, 2024 267   @ Central Connecticut St. L 68-69 OT 27%     7 - 10 3 - 4 -3.6 +2.1 -5.8
  Feb 01, 2024 319   Le Moyne W 80-57 63%     8 - 10 4 - 4 +10.8 +10.1 +3.3
  Feb 03, 2024 360   @ Stonehill L 61-71 68%     8 - 11 4 - 5 -23.7 -7.7 -17.4
  Feb 08, 2024 329   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 66-62 47%     9 - 11 5 - 5 -4.1 -3.9 +0.3
  Feb 15, 2024 354   @ St. Francis (PA) W 65-63 OT 63%     10 - 11 6 - 5 -10.2 -11.3 +1.2
  Feb 17, 2024 303   Sacred Heart L 53-63 56%     10 - 12 6 - 6 -20.4 -18.4 -3.2
  Feb 22, 2024 267   Central Connecticut St. L 72-73 47%     10 - 13 6 - 7 -9.0 -1.5 -7.6
  Feb 25, 2024 351   LIU Brooklyn W 72-57 78%     11 - 13 7 - 7 -2.0 -1.8 +0.9
  Feb 29, 2024 319   @ Le Moyne L 56-70 42%     11 - 14 7 - 8 -20.8 -17.9 -3.4
  Mar 02, 2024 329   Fairleigh Dickinson W 70-65 68%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 27.9 27.9 4th
5th 39.9 39.9 5th
6th 32.2 32.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 32.2 67.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 67.8% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 3.4 64.4
7-9 32.2% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 1.1 31.1
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.5 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 67.8% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 5.0
Lose Out 32.2% 3.5% 16.0 3.5