Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#224
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#219
Pace63.6#313
Improvement+0.7#159

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#332
First Shot-4.8#306
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#290
Layup/Dunks+1.8#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#318
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#200
Freethrows-3.5#354
Improvement-1.1#250

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#77
First Shot+2.8#84
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#118
Layups/Dunks+1.2#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#56
Freethrows-1.9#304
Improvement+1.8#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 12.0% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 3.3% 5.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.6% 1.6%
First Round10.3% 11.8% 8.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 60.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 62 - 6
Quad 415 - 618 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 330   @ Army W 71-55 69%     1 - 0 +7.6 +2.5 +6.0
  Nov 11, 2023 270   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 65-59 48%     2 - 0 +3.2 -11.8 +14.9
  Nov 18, 2023 290   @ Binghamton L 59-82 54%     2 - 1 -27.2 -15.0 -12.8
  Nov 21, 2023 275   @ New Hampshire L 71-74 49%     2 - 2 -6.0 +0.1 -6.2
  Nov 25, 2023 292   Bucknell W 73-49 74%     3 - 2 +14.2 +7.0 +10.7
  Nov 29, 2023 214   @ Iona W 68-64 39%     4 - 2 +3.8 -7.7 +11.3
  Dec 03, 2023 345   Manhattan W 70-56 88%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -1.7 -6.2 +5.1
  Dec 09, 2023 331   @ Dartmouth W 63-53 69%     6 - 2 +1.5 -4.3 +6.9
  Dec 18, 2023 350   Maryland Eastern Shore W 76-52 89%     7 - 2 +7.4 +5.3 +3.5
  Dec 22, 2023 115   @ Notre Dame L 56-60 19%     7 - 3 +2.3 +2.4 -1.0
  Dec 30, 2023 271   Lehigh L 58-65 69%     7 - 4 -15.2 -19.8 +4.9
  Jan 07, 2024 180   @ Fairfield L 61-82 32%     7 - 5 1 - 1 -19.4 -11.9 -7.7
  Jan 12, 2024 191   Quinnipiac L 55-66 56%     7 - 6 1 - 2 -15.6 -17.3 +1.1
  Jan 14, 2024 229   Rider W 83-60 61%     8 - 6 2 - 2 +17.0 +15.4 +4.1
  Jan 19, 2024 249   @ Mount St. Mary's L 48-65 44%     8 - 7 2 - 3 -18.7 -21.1 +1.2
  Jan 21, 2024 355   Siena W 50-48 91%     9 - 7 3 - 3 -16.0 -23.0 +7.3
  Jan 26, 2024 251   @ Niagara L 62-67 45%     9 - 8 3 - 4 -6.8 -7.9 +0.9
  Jan 28, 2024 280   @ Canisius W 80-71 50%     10 - 8 4 - 4 +5.7 +10.4 -4.2
  Feb 02, 2024 249   Mount St. Mary's L 58-76 65%     10 - 9 4 - 5 -25.2 -15.6 -10.0
  Feb 04, 2024 209   St. Peter's W 63-52 59%     11 - 9 5 - 5 +5.6 +1.7 +5.6
  Feb 08, 2024 355   @ Siena W 67-51 81%     12 - 9 6 - 5 +3.4 -3.4 +8.3
  Feb 10, 2024 229   @ Rider W 77-62 40%     13 - 9 7 - 5 +14.4 +5.9 +9.0
  Feb 16, 2024 280   Canisius W 78-55 70%     14 - 9 8 - 5 +14.3 +11.1 +6.0
  Feb 23, 2024 345   @ Manhattan W 57-50 75%     15 - 9 9 - 5 -3.3 -11.9 +9.6
  Feb 25, 2024 209   @ St. Peter's L 60-69 38%     15 - 10 9 - 6 -9.0 -4.7 -4.8
  Mar 01, 2024 180   Fairfield W 58-55 53%     16 - 10 10 - 6 -0.9 -13.8 +13.2
  Mar 03, 2024 214   Iona W 66-64 60%    
  Mar 07, 2024 191   @ Quinnipiac L 66-70 34%    
  Mar 09, 2024 251   Niagara W 66-62 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.3 3.3 1st
2nd 1.5 7.6 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 13.8 3.5 17.5 3rd
4th 7.9 23.7 31.6 4th
5th 0.5 20.1 1.9 22.5 5th
6th 3.8 6.8 10.5 6th
7th 5.4 5.4 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 9.7 34.9 40.9 14.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 23.0% 3.3    0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 14.5% 16.1% 16.1% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.2 12.2
12-8 40.9% 11.5% 11.5% 15.2 0.0 0.4 2.7 1.5 36.2
11-9 34.9% 9.0% 9.0% 15.5 0.1 1.3 1.7 31.7
10-10 9.7% 6.7% 6.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 1.3 5.5 4.0 89.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.5% 16.1% 14.8 0.2 4.8 9.7 1.5
Lose Out 9.7% 6.7% 15.8 0.0 1.2 5.5