Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#180
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#199
Pace69.8#143
Improvement+4.6#26

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#158
First Shot+1.9#131
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#250
Layup/Dunks-1.2#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#79
Freethrows+0.3#155
Improvement+4.3#14

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#237
First Shot-0.9#199
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#277
Layups/Dunks-2.3#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#116
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement+0.4#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 22.3% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 36.4% 45.2% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round21.2% 22.3% 17.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 76.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 20 - 11 - 1
Quad 32 - 53 - 6
Quad 415 - 618 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 93   @ Boston College L 70-89 17%     0 - 1 -10.2 -5.2 -3.7
  Nov 09, 2023 204   @ Rhode Island L 80-93 44%     0 - 2 -12.7 -3.8 -7.4
  Nov 17, 2023 134   @ Drexel L 47-65 28%     0 - 3 -13.2 -20.6 +6.3
  Nov 18, 2023 259   Queens L 63-69 64%     0 - 4 -10.9 -14.0 +3.1
  Nov 24, 2023 275   New Hampshire L 80-83 76%     0 - 5 -11.4 +3.2 -14.6
  Dec 01, 2023 214   Iona L 67-78 67%     0 - 6 0 - 1 -16.6 -6.0 -11.0
  Dec 03, 2023 229   @ Rider W 88-81 48%     1 - 6 1 - 1 +6.4 +10.8 -4.7
  Dec 06, 2023 89   @ Yale W 75-71 17%     2 - 6 +13.0 +6.5 +6.5
  Dec 09, 2023 303   @ Sacred Heart W 67-57 64%     3 - 6 +5.1 -3.9 +9.7
  Dec 17, 2023 316   Wagner W 63-51 84%     4 - 6 +0.4 -5.8 +7.5
  Dec 21, 2023 329   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 92-69 75%     5 - 6 +14.9 +8.6 +4.7
  Dec 30, 2023 319   Le Moyne W 78-72 85%     6 - 6 -6.2 -5.3 -1.2
  Jan 05, 2024 355   @ Siena W 93-69 86%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +11.4 +16.3 -4.9
  Jan 07, 2024 224   Marist W 82-61 68%     8 - 6 3 - 1 +15.1 +12.0 +3.3
  Jan 12, 2024 251   @ Niagara L 72-96 52%     8 - 7 3 - 2 -25.8 +0.8 -27.4
  Jan 15, 2024 280   @ Canisius W 88-63 58%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +21.7 +11.6 +9.4
  Jan 19, 2024 209   St. Peter's W 76-67 66%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +3.6 +7.1 -3.2
  Jan 21, 2024 345   @ Manhattan W 82-75 81%     11 - 7 6 - 2 -3.3 +6.1 -9.3
  Jan 28, 2024 191   Quinnipiac L 64-66 63%     11 - 8 6 - 3 -6.6 -11.3 +4.7
  Feb 02, 2024 214   @ Iona L 82-91 46%     11 - 9 6 - 4 -9.2 +7.7 -16.7
  Feb 04, 2024 345   Manhattan W 77-68 91%     12 - 9 7 - 4 -6.7 +2.1 -8.2
  Feb 08, 2024 229   Rider W 84-67 68%     13 - 9 8 - 4 +11.0 +21.3 -7.6
  Feb 10, 2024 209   @ St. Peter's W 64-62 45%     14 - 9 9 - 4 +2.0 +0.9 +1.3
  Feb 16, 2024 251   Niagara L 63-65 72%     14 - 10 9 - 5 -9.2 -11.9 +2.6
  Feb 18, 2024 249   Mount St. Mary's W 94-80 72%     15 - 10 10 - 5 +6.8 +18.1 -11.4
  Feb 23, 2024 191   @ Quinnipiac W 85-81 42%     16 - 10 11 - 5 +4.8 +9.3 -4.7
  Feb 25, 2024 355   Siena W 88-64 93%     17 - 10 12 - 5 +6.0 +10.5 -4.0
  Mar 01, 2024 224   @ Marist L 55-58 47%     17 - 11 12 - 6 -3.5 -8.8 +5.1
  Mar 07, 2024 280   Canisius W 78-70 77%    
  Mar 09, 2024 249   @ Mount St. Mary's W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 7.1 29.3 36.4 1st
2nd 2.6 34.7 10.7 48.0 2nd
3rd 6.6 6.5 13.1 3rd
4th 2.5 2.5 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 11.7 48.3 40.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 73.3% 29.3    5.9 17.9 5.5
13-7 14.7% 7.1    0.0 0.6 3.4 3.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
Total 36.4% 36.4 6.0 18.5 8.8 3.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 40.0% 24.4% 24.4% 14.3 0.0 1.0 4.9 3.6 0.2 30.2
13-7 48.3% 20.0% 20.0% 14.7 0.2 3.5 5.1 0.8 38.6
12-8 11.7% 15.4% 15.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 9.9
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 1.3 8.6 9.8 1.5 78.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 40.0% 24.4% 14.3 0.0 2.6 12.4 9.0 0.5
Lose Out 11.7% 15.4% 15.1 0.0 2.0 9.5 4.0