Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#280
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#255
Pace68.6#176
Improvement-5.8#351

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#276
First Shot-4.3#298
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#140
Layup/Dunks-6.4#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#44
Freethrows-3.6#355
Improvement-3.1#325

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#244
First Shot-2.5#264
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#159
Layups/Dunks-7.3#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#40
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement-2.7#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.1% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.4% 16.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 3.3% 2.6%
First Round1.9% 2.4% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 103 - 12
Quad 49 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 76   @ Syracuse L 77-89 8%     0 - 1 -1.9 +9.4 -11.4
  Nov 11, 2023 84   @ St. Bonaventure W 70-67 8%     1 - 1 +12.7 +2.2 +10.5
  Nov 15, 2023 206   @ Cleveland St. L 61-71 28%     1 - 2 -9.8 -15.3 +5.7
  Nov 24, 2023 187   Wofford W 76-67 34%     2 - 2 +7.4 -5.4 +12.1
  Nov 25, 2023 140   Western Kentucky W 85-77 23%     3 - 2 +9.7 +5.7 +3.2
  Nov 26, 2023 246   Bowling Green L 73-77 43%     3 - 3 -8.1 +5.5 -14.0
  Dec 01, 2023 191   Quinnipiac W 93-73 45%     4 - 3 1 - 0 +15.4 +12.5 +1.7
  Dec 03, 2023 209   St. Peter's L 52-54 48%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -7.4 -10.8 +3.1
  Dec 06, 2023 305   Robert Morris W 87-80 67%     5 - 4 -3.5 -1.5 -2.8
  Dec 09, 2023 49   @ Pittsburgh L 71-82 5%     5 - 5 +1.7 +8.7 -7.7
  Dec 22, 2023 125   @ High Point L 70-78 14%     5 - 6 -2.4 -1.7 -1.0
  Jan 05, 2024 249   @ Mount St. Mary's L 69-74 34%     5 - 7 1 - 2 -6.7 -2.1 -4.7
  Jan 07, 2024 229   @ Rider L 76-79 OT 30%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -3.6 -4.0 +0.6
  Jan 12, 2024 355   Siena W 67-63 87%     6 - 8 2 - 3 -14.0 -10.0 -3.8
  Jan 15, 2024 180   Fairfield L 63-88 42%     6 - 9 2 - 4 -28.9 -15.1 -13.0
  Jan 19, 2024 214   @ Iona L 58-70 29%     6 - 10 2 - 5 -12.2 -12.2 -0.5
  Jan 21, 2024 209   @ St. Peter's L 59-70 28%     6 - 11 2 - 6 -11.0 -7.2 -4.2
  Jan 26, 2024 345   Manhattan W 82-70 82%     7 - 11 3 - 6 -3.7 -1.8 -2.5
  Jan 28, 2024 224   Marist L 71-80 50%     7 - 12 3 - 7 -14.9 +3.9 -19.3
  Feb 04, 2024 191   @ Quinnipiac L 63-88 26%     7 - 13 3 - 8 -24.2 -11.4 -12.0
  Feb 06, 2024 251   @ Niagara L 64-69 34%     7 - 14 3 - 9 -6.8 -6.4 -0.6
  Feb 10, 2024 214   Iona W 73-69 49%     8 - 14 4 - 9 -1.6 -5.0 +3.2
  Feb 16, 2024 224   @ Marist L 55-78 30%     8 - 15 4 - 10 -23.5 -6.3 -20.0
  Feb 18, 2024 355   @ Siena W 73-64 74%     9 - 15 5 - 10 -3.6 +9.9 -11.8
  Feb 23, 2024 251   Niagara W 69-59 55%     10 - 15 6 - 10 +2.8 -1.5 +5.1
  Mar 01, 2024 249   Mount St. Mary's W 61-56 55%     11 - 15 7 - 10 -2.2 -3.2 +1.9
  Mar 03, 2024 229   Rider W 73-72 51%    
  Mar 07, 2024 180   @ Fairfield L 70-78 23%    
  Mar 09, 2024 345   @ Manhattan W 73-69 65%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 2.9 2.9 6th
7th 0.2 5.6 4.2 10.1 7th
8th 13.3 25.0 1.0 39.3 8th
9th 14.2 27.4 5.8 47.4 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 14.2 40.9 36.5 8.4 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 8.4% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.1 0.4 7.9
9-11 36.5% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5 35.0
8-12 40.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2 39.7
7-13 14.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 13.9
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 3.4 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.4% 6.1% 15.9 0.8 5.3
Lose Out 14.2% 1.9% 16.0 1.9