Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#251
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#247
Pace68.1#193
Improvement+5.2#18

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#240
First Shot+1.4#144
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#350
Layup/Dunks-0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#199
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement-2.1#295

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#242
First Shot-2.3#255
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#182
Layups/Dunks-3.9#311
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#110
Freethrows+3.1#20
Improvement+7.3#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 7.2% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 61.6% 84.8% 25.1%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 2.4% 3.5%
First Round5.1% 6.0% 3.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 36 - 36 - 5
Quad 49 - 1015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 115   @ Notre Dame L 63-70 16%     0 - 1 -0.7 +3.1 -4.4
  Nov 11, 2023 292   Bucknell L 64-73 69%     0 - 2 -18.8 -6.0 -13.7
  Nov 16, 2023 164   @ Hawaii L 73-92 24%     0 - 3 -16.3 -1.8 -13.6
  Nov 25, 2023 354   @ St. Francis (PA) W 69-61 77%     1 - 3 -4.2 -0.9 -2.3
  Dec 01, 2023 209   St. Peter's L 67-72 53%     1 - 4 0 - 1 -10.4 -2.4 -8.1
  Dec 03, 2023 191   Quinnipiac L 68-75 OT 51%     1 - 5 0 - 2 -11.6 -14.4 +3.5
  Dec 06, 2023 84   St. Bonaventure L 60-94 20%     1 - 6 -29.8 -5.5 -27.5
  Dec 16, 2023 334   NJIT W 89-81 82%     2 - 6 -6.3 +12.8 -18.7
  Dec 19, 2023 290   @ Binghamton L 69-74 49%     2 - 7 -9.2 -6.6 -2.5
  Dec 21, 2023 76   @ Syracuse L 71-83 9%     2 - 8 -1.9 -1.1 -0.2
  Dec 29, 2023 341   @ Buffalo W 69-63 70%     3 - 8 -4.0 -7.6 +3.8
  Jan 05, 2024 345   @ Manhattan W 81-67 71%     4 - 8 1 - 2 +3.7 +4.3 -0.6
  Jan 07, 2024 214   @ Iona W 75-73 34%     5 - 8 2 - 2 +1.8 +3.9 -2.1
  Jan 12, 2024 180   Fairfield W 96-72 48%     6 - 8 3 - 2 +20.1 +23.0 -2.1
  Jan 15, 2024 355   Siena L 88-93 89%     6 - 9 3 - 3 -23.0 +0.9 -23.5
  Jan 19, 2024 229   @ Rider W 78-74 35%     7 - 9 4 - 3 +3.4 +4.8 -1.3
  Jan 21, 2024 249   @ Mount St. Mary's W 82-71 39%     8 - 9 5 - 3 +9.3 +17.0 -6.8
  Jan 26, 2024 224   Marist W 67-62 55%     9 - 9 6 - 3 -0.9 +0.3 -0.9
  Jan 28, 2024 345   Manhattan L 78-84 OT 85%     9 - 10 6 - 4 -21.7 -12.0 -8.9
  Feb 02, 2024 209   @ St. Peter's W 68-59 OT 33%     10 - 10 7 - 4 +9.0 -0.6 +9.6
  Feb 06, 2024 280   Canisius W 69-64 66%     11 - 10 8 - 4 -3.7 -3.9 +0.5
  Feb 08, 2024 214   Iona L 71-74 54%     11 - 11 8 - 5 -8.6 -6.6 -2.0
  Feb 16, 2024 180   @ Fairfield W 65-63 28%     12 - 11 9 - 5 +3.6 -6.9 +10.5
  Feb 18, 2024 191   @ Quinnipiac W 80-66 30%     13 - 11 10 - 5 +14.8 +5.2 +9.2
  Feb 23, 2024 280   @ Canisius L 59-69 45%     13 - 12 10 - 6 -13.3 -9.7 -4.5
  Mar 01, 2024 229   Rider L 61-71 56%     13 - 13 10 - 7 -16.0 -13.6 -2.8
  Mar 03, 2024 249   Mount St. Mary's W 73-70 61%    
  Mar 07, 2024 355   @ Siena W 73-65 77%    
  Mar 09, 2024 224   @ Marist L 62-66 34%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 1.5 1st
2nd 1.5 8.2 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 13.8 6.3 20.3 3rd
4th 7.3 25.4 1.0 33.7 4th
5th 1.1 18.2 3.9 23.1 5th
6th 4.0 6.3 10.3 6th
7th 1.4 1.4 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 6.5 31.9 44.6 17.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 8.8% 1.5    0.1 0.5 1.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 17.0% 9.1% 9.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.7 15.5
12-8 44.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.6 41.5
11-9 31.9% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.1 1.5 30.3
10-10 6.5% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.3 6.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.0 93.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.0% 9.1% 15.4 0.0 0.3 4.9 3.8
Lose Out 6.5% 4.5% 16.0 4.5