Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#229
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#253
Pace69.3#154
Improvement+7.7#3

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#206
First Shot-5.0#309
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#11
Layup/Dunks-1.2#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.4#353
Freethrows+2.1#55
Improvement+5.8#4

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#246
First Shot-3.2#292
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#98
Layups/Dunks-0.7#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#256
Freethrows-2.9#335
Improvement+1.9#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 10.9% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.6% 9.0% 8.3%
First Round6.1% 7.2% 5.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Away) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 410 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 10   @ Marquette L 65-95 3%     0 - 1 -10.5 -2.3 -6.3
  Nov 13, 2023 33   @ Nebraska L 50-64 6%     0 - 2 +0.5 -11.8 +11.2
  Nov 17, 2023 109   @ Duquesne L 58-77 17%     0 - 3 -12.1 -9.4 -2.8
  Nov 20, 2023 208   @ Stony Brook L 48-55 37%     0 - 4 -6.9 -25.3 +18.3
  Nov 28, 2023 42   @ Maryland L 76-103 7%     0 - 5 -13.4 +10.6 -22.7
  Dec 01, 2023 355   @ Siena L 65-67 81%     0 - 6 0 - 1 -14.6 -6.6 -8.1
  Dec 03, 2023 180   Fairfield L 81-88 52%     0 - 7 0 - 2 -10.9 +1.7 -12.3
  Dec 08, 2023 360   Stonehill W 73-56 92%     1 - 7 -2.2 -7.1 +4.9
  Dec 16, 2023 213   @ Monmouth L 71-77 38%     1 - 8 -6.2 +2.1 -8.6
  Dec 20, 2023 173   @ Delaware W 88-85 OT 30%     2 - 8 +5.1 +14.5 -9.4
  Dec 23, 2023 218   Penn L 73-77 OT 59%     2 - 9 -9.8 -10.3 +0.8
  Dec 29, 2023 85   @ Penn St. L 63-90 12%     2 - 10 -17.4 -11.9 -2.8
  Jan 05, 2024 191   @ Quinnipiac L 84-88 34%     2 - 11 0 - 3 -3.2 +2.6 -5.4
  Jan 07, 2024 280   Canisius W 79-76 OT 70%     3 - 11 1 - 3 -5.7 -3.8 -2.1
  Jan 12, 2024 345   Manhattan W 71-58 87%     4 - 11 2 - 3 -2.7 -9.1 +6.3
  Jan 14, 2024 224   @ Marist L 60-83 39%     4 - 12 2 - 4 -23.5 -1.6 -24.4
  Jan 19, 2024 251   Niagara L 74-78 65%     4 - 13 2 - 5 -11.2 -1.8 -9.4
  Jan 25, 2024 209   @ St. Peter's W 62-57 37%     5 - 13 3 - 5 +5.0 -1.5 +6.9
  Jan 27, 2024 249   @ Mount St. Mary's W 66-62 44%     6 - 13 4 - 5 +2.3 +0.5 +2.2
  Feb 02, 2024 355   Siena W 91-50 91%     7 - 13 5 - 5 +23.0 +15.4 +9.3
  Feb 04, 2024 214   @ Iona L 93-94 38%     7 - 14 5 - 6 -1.2 +14.2 -15.4
  Feb 08, 2024 180   @ Fairfield L 67-84 32%     7 - 15 5 - 7 -15.4 +4.6 -22.8
  Feb 10, 2024 224   Marist L 62-77 60%     7 - 16 5 - 8 -20.9 -6.5 -14.9
  Feb 16, 2024 249   Mount St. Mary's W 61-57 65%     8 - 16 6 - 8 -3.2 -15.3 +12.1
  Feb 18, 2024 345   @ Manhattan W 104-62 75%     9 - 16 7 - 8 +31.7 +33.7 +0.7
  Feb 23, 2024 214   Iona W 78-75 59%     10 - 16 8 - 8 -2.6 -0.6 -2.1
  Feb 25, 2024 191   Quinnipiac W 88-78 55%     11 - 16 9 - 8 +5.4 +7.9 -3.1
  Mar 01, 2024 251   @ Niagara W 71-61 44%     12 - 16 10 - 8 +8.2 -0.4 +8.9
  Mar 03, 2024 280   @ Canisius L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 07, 2024 209   St. Peter's W 66-64 59%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 1.2 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 10.7 10.9 3rd
4th 6.5 13.5 20.0 4th
5th 1.6 28.6 4.2 34.4 5th
6th 15.7 13.5 29.2 6th
7th 4.2 4.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 21.5 48.8 29.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 29.7% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.5 26.1
11-9 48.8% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 4.6 44.2
10-10 21.5% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6 19.9
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.7 90.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 29.7% 12.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.6
Lose Out 21.5% 7.3% 16.0 0.0 7.3