Iona
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#168
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#265
Pace71.0#134
Improvement-0.4#211

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#164
First Shot+0.4#171
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#172
Layup/Dunks-2.8#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#156
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#83
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement-1.3#283

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#191
First Shot+1.2#135
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#301
Layups/Dunks+1.7#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#160
Freethrows-1.6#274
Improvement+0.9#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.4% 36.6% 29.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 81.1% 90.1% 74.3%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 96.1% 92.1%
Conference Champion 36.6% 42.0% 32.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four5.2% 3.4% 6.5%
First Round30.1% 34.9% 26.4%
Second Round2.0% 2.7% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 416 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 107   @ College of Charleston L 69-71 24%     0 - 1 +5.0 -3.0 +8.1
  Nov 10, 2023 292   Sacred Heart W 88-81 82%     1 - 1 -3.1 +9.8 -13.0
  Nov 20, 2023 205   High Point L 68-82 57%     1 - 2 -16.0 -5.6 -11.3
  Nov 21, 2023 139   Long Beach St. L 76-80 43%     1 - 3 -2.3 -5.2 +3.3
  Nov 22, 2023 321   Buffalo W 89-64 79%     2 - 3 +16.2 +13.4 +3.4
  Nov 26, 2023 40   @ Colorado L 68-85 9%     2 - 4 -2.7 +1.7 -4.2
  Nov 29, 2023 234   Marist L 64-68 73%     2 - 5 -10.5 -11.8 +1.5
  Dec 01, 2023 308   @ Fairfield W 78-67 68%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +5.9 +6.3 +0.0
  Dec 06, 2023 100   Hofstra L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 10, 2023 349   St. Francis (PA) W 80-64 93%    
  Dec 16, 2023 96   Saint Joseph's L 70-75 32%    
  Dec 21, 2023 127   Colgate W 73-72 51%    
  Dec 30, 2023 150   @ Harvard L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 05, 2024 249   @ St. Peter's W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 07, 2024 293   Niagara W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 14, 2024 265   Mount St. Mary's W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 19, 2024 199   Canisius W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 21, 2024 268   @ Quinnipiac W 78-75 59%    
  Jan 26, 2024 350   @ Siena W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 02, 2024 308   Fairfield W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 04, 2024 273   Rider W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 08, 2024 293   @ Niagara W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 10, 2024 199   @ Canisius L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 16, 2024 322   Manhattan W 78-66 85%    
  Feb 18, 2024 249   St. Peter's W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 23, 2024 273   @ Rider W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 25, 2024 265   @ Mount St. Mary's W 70-68 59%    
  Mar 01, 2024 268   Quinnipiac W 81-72 79%    
  Mar 03, 2024 234   @ Marist W 68-67 51%    
  Mar 07, 2024 322   @ Manhattan W 75-69 69%    
  Mar 09, 2024 350   Siena W 77-61 92%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 14 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.2 9.0 9.7 7.5 3.6 1.1 36.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 5.9 8.1 5.2 2.1 0.3 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.7 5.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.0 1.3 0.2 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 3.3 5.3 8.9 11.3 14.3 14.9 14.7 11.8 7.8 3.6 1.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1
18-2 100.0% 3.6    3.5 0.1
17-3 96.4% 7.5    6.8 0.7 0.0
16-4 81.9% 9.7    7.3 2.3 0.1
15-5 61.1% 9.0    5.2 3.2 0.5 0.0
14-6 28.3% 4.2    1.5 1.8 0.8 0.1
13-7 9.8% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.6% 36.6 25.7 8.6 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.1% 73.4% 73.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3
18-2 3.6% 70.6% 70.6% 13.6 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.1
17-3 7.8% 58.5% 58.5% 14.1 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.3 0.2 3.3
16-4 11.8% 48.3% 48.3% 14.6 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.5 0.7 6.1
15-5 14.7% 40.2% 40.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.6 1.7 8.8
14-6 14.9% 33.0% 33.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.3 10.0
13-7 14.3% 26.4% 26.4% 15.6 0.1 1.3 2.3 10.5
12-8 11.3% 17.1% 17.1% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.5 9.4
11-9 8.9% 14.1% 14.1% 15.9 0.1 1.1 7.6
10-10 5.3% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.5 4.8
9-11 3.3% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.3 3.0
8-12 1.5% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.1 1.4
7-13 0.8% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.4% 32.4% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.7 7.6 10.7 10.8 67.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 81.1% 11.2 6.7 48.9 25.6