Lafayette
Patriot League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#307
Expected Predictive Rating-8.8#309
Pace64.1#300
Improvement+3.5#43

Offense
Total Offense-7.4#341
First Shot-3.9#291
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#346
Layup/Dunks+0.8#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#207
Freethrows-2.3#325
Improvement+3.9#22

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#193
First Shot-0.4#184
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#212
Layups/Dunks+3.0#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#255
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#269
Freethrows-0.7#244
Improvement-0.4#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.4% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 2.4% 1.8%
First Round0.9% 1.1% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Away) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 30 - 61 - 9
Quad 49 - 1110 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 116   @ Saint Joseph's L 60-81 10%     0 - 1 -14.8 -10.0 -5.1
  Nov 10, 2023 88   @ UCLA L 50-68 6%     0 - 2 -8.9 -11.0 +0.4
  Nov 12, 2023 219   @ Pepperdine L 53-76 23%     0 - 3 -23.4 -22.2 -1.3
  Nov 24, 2023 218   @ Penn L 72-74 23%     0 - 4 -2.3 +4.1 -6.6
  Nov 25, 2023 213   Monmouth L 53-63 31%     0 - 5 -12.9 -22.6 +9.9
  Nov 26, 2023 123   Belmont L 69-79 15%     0 - 6 -7.0 -7.6 +1.3
  Nov 29, 2023 134   Drexel L 48-69 24%     0 - 7 -21.6 -19.3 -4.9
  Dec 02, 2023 112   Cornell L 71-79 19%     0 - 8 -6.8 -8.5 +2.3
  Dec 05, 2023 233   @ Columbia L 72-83 25%     0 - 9 -11.9 +0.7 -13.2
  Dec 09, 2023 193   La Salle L 51-67 37%     0 - 10 -20.7 -23.3 +2.0
  Dec 21, 2023 191   Quinnipiac L 60-78 37%     0 - 11 -22.6 -15.3 -7.3
  Dec 30, 2023 78   @ Richmond L 38-59 6%     0 - 12 -11.2 -26.3 +14.5
  Jan 03, 2024 330   Army W 52-47 71%     1 - 12 1 - 0 -8.9 -10.0 +2.4
  Jan 06, 2024 295   @ Boston University W 59-51 36%     2 - 12 2 - 0 +3.5 -11.1 +14.9
  Jan 10, 2024 141   @ Colgate W 69-64 13%     3 - 12 3 - 0 +9.2 +3.9 +5.6
  Jan 13, 2024 323   Navy W 78-62 66%     4 - 12 4 - 0 +3.6 +2.7 +1.5
  Jan 17, 2024 348   @ Holy Cross W 72-68 60%     5 - 12 5 - 0 -6.7 +2.1 -8.3
  Jan 20, 2024 292   Bucknell W 75-72 OT 56%     6 - 12 6 - 0 -6.8 -2.5 -4.3
  Jan 24, 2024 343   @ Loyola Maryland W 70-44 58%     7 - 12 7 - 0 +16.0 +4.9 +15.2
  Jan 27, 2024 295   Boston University L 48-62 57%     7 - 13 7 - 1 -24.0 -22.0 -3.6
  Jan 31, 2024 261   American L 66-69 49%     7 - 14 7 - 2 -10.8 -2.5 -8.7
  Feb 03, 2024 330   @ Army W 64-56 OT 51%     8 - 14 8 - 2 -0.4 -2.1 +2.5
  Feb 07, 2024 348   Holy Cross W 75-59 78%     9 - 14 9 - 2 -0.1 +4.4 -2.0
  Feb 10, 2024 271   @ Lehigh L 90-94 2OT 30%     9 - 15 9 - 3 -6.8 +5.1 -11.3
  Feb 14, 2024 343   Loyola Maryland L 64-79 76%     9 - 16 9 - 4 -30.5 -11.9 -19.2
  Feb 17, 2024 261   @ American W 68-62 29%     10 - 16 10 - 4 +3.6 +2.8 +1.7
  Feb 19, 2024 141   Colgate L 62-67 25%     10 - 17 10 - 5 -6.2 -5.1 -1.5
  Feb 24, 2024 271   Lehigh L 63-71 50%     10 - 18 10 - 6 -16.2 -11.2 -5.1
  Feb 28, 2024 323   @ Navy L 58-62 46%     10 - 19 10 - 7 -10.9 -10.3 -1.1
  Mar 02, 2024 292   @ Bucknell L 61-65 35%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 15.3 35.1 50.4 2nd
3rd 49.6 49.6 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 64.9 35.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 35.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.9 34.3
10-8 64.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 1.2 63.7
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 2.0 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 35.1% 2.4% 16.0 2.4
Lose Out 64.9% 1.8% 16.0 1.8