Princeton
Ivy League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#65
Expected Predictive Rating+18.7#11
Pace62.4#335
Improvement-3.1#343

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#43
First Shot+6.7#32
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#239
Layup/Dunks+3.4#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#52
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement-1.8#320

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#108
First Shot+1.2#132
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#104
Layups/Dunks-1.6#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#117
Freethrows+3.0#32
Improvement-1.3#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.4% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 5.4% 6.5% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.8% 57.5% 45.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.5% 19.0% 8.7%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 11.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 97.9% 96.8%
Conference Champion 58.9% 61.1% 50.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Four4.6% 5.1% 2.9%
First Round52.3% 54.7% 43.6%
Second Round18.5% 20.1% 12.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.7% 6.2% 3.5%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 23 - 14 - 2
Quad 38 - 212 - 4
Quad 49 - 121 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 63   Rutgers W 68-61 50%     1 - 0 +15.2 +12.2 +3.9
  Nov 10, 2023 100   @ Hofstra W 74-67 51%     2 - 0 +14.7 +6.3 +8.7
  Nov 15, 2023 85   @ Duquesne W 70-67 46%     3 - 0 +12.1 +6.3 +6.1
  Nov 18, 2023 239   @ Monmouth W 82-57 80%     4 - 0 +24.2 +11.6 +13.5
  Nov 22, 2023 206   @ Old Dominion W 76-56 75%     5 - 0 +21.0 +14.5 +9.1
  Nov 25, 2023 210   Northeastern W 80-66 89%     6 - 0 +8.9 +18.0 -6.4
  Nov 29, 2023 306   @ Bucknell W 85-71 88%     7 - 0 +9.1 +23.5 -12.2
  Dec 02, 2023 122   Furman W 70-69 78%     8 - 0 +0.9 -8.5 +9.3
  Dec 05, 2023 124   Drexel W 66-58 78%    
  Dec 10, 2023 96   @ Saint Joseph's W 70-69 50%    
  Dec 30, 2023 156   @ Delaware W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 06, 2024 150   Harvard W 74-64 84%    
  Jan 15, 2024 285   Dartmouth W 77-59 95%    
  Jan 20, 2024 246   @ Columbia W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 27, 2024 121   @ Cornell W 78-76 58%    
  Feb 02, 2024 91   @ Yale L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 03, 2024 232   @ Brown W 73-65 78%    
  Feb 10, 2024 194   Penn W 77-64 87%    
  Feb 16, 2024 232   Brown W 76-62 90%    
  Feb 17, 2024 91   Yale W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 23, 2024 150   @ Harvard W 71-67 66%    
  Feb 24, 2024 285   @ Dartmouth W 74-62 85%    
  Mar 01, 2024 246   Columbia W 78-63 91%    
  Mar 02, 2024 121   Cornell W 81-73 76%    
  Mar 09, 2024 194   @ Penn W 74-67 72%    
Projected Record 21 - 4 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 6.0 14.6 18.0 14.0 5.3 58.9 1st
2nd 1.0 5.1 9.5 5.9 1.3 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.5 1.8 0.1 10.4 3rd
4th 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.1 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.4 6.4 11.3 17.4 20.6 19.3 14.0 5.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 5.3    5.3
13-1 100.0% 14.0    13.6 0.4
12-2 93.0% 18.0    14.9 3.1 0.0
11-3 71.1% 14.6    8.4 5.7 0.6
10-4 34.7% 6.0    2.0 2.7 1.3 0.1
9-5 8.2% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 58.9% 58.9 44.2 12.2 2.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 5.3% 96.7% 72.4% 24.3% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 88.0%
13-1 14.0% 83.2% 61.6% 21.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.2 3.2 0.5 2.4 56.2%
12-2 19.3% 70.7% 57.0% 13.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.6 7.5 2.5 0.0 5.7 31.9%
11-3 20.6% 54.7% 47.0% 7.7% 11.3 0.1 0.9 6.2 3.9 0.2 0.0 9.3 14.5%
10-4 17.4% 40.0% 37.9% 2.1% 11.7 0.1 2.5 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.4 3.3%
9-5 11.3% 32.6% 32.1% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.6 0.7%
8-6 6.4% 22.8% 22.8% 12.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.9
7-7 3.4% 20.5% 20.5% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.7
6-8 1.5% 17.4% 17.4% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
5-9 0.7% 15.4% 15.4% 13.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-10 0.2% 0.2
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 54.8% 45.9% 9.0% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.7 2.9 6.1 20.6 14.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 45.2 16.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 98.5% 4.4 0.1 7.7 20.3 25.5 22.5 15.7 3.1 2.0 1.8