Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#85
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#85
Pace69.8#168
Improvement+0.3#161

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#58
First Shot+4.8#58
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#159
Layup/Dunks-0.4#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#24
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement-0.9#255

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#146
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#114
Layups/Dunks+3.3#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#222
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#277
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement+1.2#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 17.2% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.5% 4.6% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.8
.500 or above 93.7% 96.6% 87.8%
.500 or above in Conference 79.0% 81.7% 73.6%
Conference Champion 16.5% 19.0% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.2% 2.0%
First Four1.6% 2.0% 0.7%
First Round14.3% 16.4% 10.0%
Second Round4.6% 5.4% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 7
Quad 38 - 312 - 10
Quad 48 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 193   Cleveland St. W 79-77 84%     1 - 0 -2.4 +3.0 -5.5
  Nov 10, 2023 107   College of Charleston W 90-72 58%     2 - 0 +22.0 +10.6 +9.7
  Nov 13, 2023 261   Stony Brook W 85-63 90%     3 - 0 +13.7 +12.9 +1.6
  Nov 15, 2023 65   Princeton L 67-70 54%     3 - 1 +2.1 +1.4 +0.4
  Nov 17, 2023 273   Rider W 77-58 92%     4 - 1 +9.8 +1.4 +8.5
  Nov 22, 2023 48   @ Nebraska L 79-89 25%     4 - 2 +3.0 +19.1 -17.2
  Nov 29, 2023 78   UC Irvine W 66-62 58%     5 - 2 +7.9 -0.2 +8.2
  Dec 06, 2023 196   @ Marshall W 81-76 67%    
  Dec 08, 2023 249   St. Peter's W 73-59 89%    
  Dec 18, 2023 92   Bradley W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 23, 2023 135   Santa Clara W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 03, 2024 133   @ Massachusetts W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 06, 2024 119   @ Loyola Chicago W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 12, 2024 60   Dayton W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 16, 2024 90   Richmond W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 20, 2024 96   @ Saint Joseph's L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 23, 2024 99   St. Bonaventure W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 27, 2024 170   Fordham W 77-68 81%    
  Jan 31, 2024 338   Chicago St. W 82-61 97%    
  Feb 03, 2024 173   @ Rhode Island W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 07, 2024 123   Davidson W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 10, 2024 99   @ St. Bonaventure L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 13, 2024 60   @ Dayton L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 17, 2024 96   Saint Joseph's W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 20, 2024 188   Saint Louis W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 23, 2024 170   @ Fordham W 74-71 63%    
  Feb 28, 2024 200   La Salle W 82-71 82%    
  Mar 02, 2024 98   @ George Mason L 71-73 45%    
  Mar 05, 2024 93   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 09, 2024 162   George Washington W 84-75 78%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.8 4.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 16.5 1st
2nd 0.6 3.4 4.9 2.9 0.6 0.1 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 5.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.3 3.0 0.3 10.0 4th
5th 0.5 4.4 3.9 0.5 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.5 1.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.9 2.3 0.2 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 3.3 0.4 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.3 2.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.5 12th
13th 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.6 6.1 8.3 10.9 13.3 14.1 12.9 10.8 8.1 5.2 2.7 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 97.6% 2.6    2.3 0.3
15-3 87.2% 4.5    3.3 1.1 0.1
14-4 59.2% 4.8    2.5 1.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 27.5% 3.0    0.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 9.7 4.8 1.4 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 85.9% 29.3% 56.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 80.0%
16-2 2.7% 61.8% 27.7% 34.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 47.2%
15-3 5.2% 43.7% 28.8% 14.9% 10.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.3 2.9 21.0%
14-4 8.1% 27.0% 19.6% 7.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.0 5.9 9.1%
13-5 10.8% 19.0% 17.9% 1.1% 11.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.7 1.3%
12-6 12.9% 14.3% 13.9% 0.4% 11.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 11.1 0.5%
11-7 14.1% 10.9% 10.7% 0.2% 12.1 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 12.6 0.2%
10-8 13.3% 7.3% 7.3% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 12.4
9-9 10.9% 6.1% 6.1% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2
8-10 8.3% 5.5% 5.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.8
7-11 6.1% 3.5% 3.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8
6-12 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 3.5
5-13 1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 1.7
4-14 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.9% 11.9% 3.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 4.3 4.8 1.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 85.1 3.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.1 15.0 42.5 42.5