Delaware
Colonial Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#156
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#163
Pace67.3#229
Improvement-2.2#310

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#155
First Shot+1.4#141
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#216
Layup/Dunks+4.3#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#272
Freethrows-1.5#261
Improvement-2.3#335

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#185
First Shot+1.9#115
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#318
Layups/Dunks-1.4#233
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#147
Freethrows+2.9#36
Improvement+0.1#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.3% 10.2% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 87.3% 96.2% 86.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.5% 92.2% 86.9%
Conference Champion 12.0% 15.8% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round8.2% 10.2% 7.9%
Second Round0.8% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 10.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 414 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 306   @ Bucknell W 78-57 69%     1 - 0 +16.1 +3.7 +12.5
  Nov 12, 2023 203   Air Force W 65-57 69%     2 - 0 +3.2 +7.8 -2.7
  Nov 15, 2023 328   @ Delaware St. W 78-67 76%     3 - 0 +4.1 +6.2 -1.8
  Nov 24, 2023 232   Brown W 67-59 64%     4 - 0 +4.8 -9.1 +13.4
  Nov 25, 2023 103   UNC Greensboro L 77-88 34%     4 - 1 -6.5 +6.9 -13.5
  Nov 26, 2023 162   George Washington L 71-81 51%     4 - 2 -9.9 -6.4 -3.0
  Dec 02, 2023 129   @ Ohio L 73-74 31%     4 - 3 +4.4 +2.6 +1.7
  Dec 05, 2023 45   @ Xavier L 67-80 10%    
  Dec 11, 2023 299   @ Robert Morris W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 16, 2023 173   Rhode Island W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 20, 2023 273   Rider W 75-65 81%    
  Dec 30, 2023 65   Princeton L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 04, 2024 327   Hampton W 82-69 89%    
  Jan 06, 2024 100   @ Hofstra L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 11, 2024 317   @ Campbell W 68-62 70%    
  Jan 13, 2024 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 18, 2024 261   Stony Brook W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 20, 2024 124   @ Drexel L 61-66 30%    
  Jan 25, 2024 361   N.C. A&T W 87-67 96%    
  Jan 27, 2024 219   Towson W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 01, 2024 315   @ William & Mary W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 03, 2024 239   Monmouth W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 08, 2024 219   @ Towson L 63-64 49%    
  Feb 10, 2024 315   William & Mary W 79-67 86%    
  Feb 15, 2024 297   @ Elon W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 17, 2024 361   @ N.C. A&T W 84-70 89%    
  Feb 22, 2024 107   College of Charleston L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 26, 2024 124   Drexel W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 29, 2024 210   Northeastern W 75-70 69%    
  Mar 02, 2024 261   @ Stony Brook W 69-66 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 2.8 4.2 2.9 1.0 0.2 12.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.2 5.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.5 6.6 2.1 0.2 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.0 7.1 2.0 0.2 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.2 2.0 0.1 12.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.5 2.3 0.2 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 3.4 2.5 0.2 7.5 7th
8th 0.5 2.7 1.8 0.4 5.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.3 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.4 6.4 8.3 13.0 14.9 15.8 13.8 10.5 6.7 3.3 1.0 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.6% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-2 88.8% 2.9    2.1 0.8 0.0
15-3 62.6% 4.2    2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 26.6% 2.8    0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 6.0 4.2 1.4 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 47.8% 47.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 31.9% 31.9% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.3% 27.4% 27.4% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 2.4
15-3 6.7% 21.6% 21.6% 13.4 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 5.2
14-4 10.5% 14.3% 14.3% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.0
13-5 13.8% 9.2% 9.2% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 12.5
12-6 15.8% 7.1% 7.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 14.7
11-7 14.9% 5.9% 5.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 14.0
10-8 13.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.5
9-9 8.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 8.1
8-10 6.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.3
7-11 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.7 1.8 1.0 91.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 75.0% 9.3 25.0 25.0 25.0