UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.8 #118
Expected Predictive Rating +2.5 #125
Pace 72.5 #82
Improvement -2.4 #293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #126 D+ C+ A+ C+ C-
Defense #129 C B C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #22 1.17 #160 +4.4 #44
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #57 0.69 #280 +1.7 #89
Three Pointers 27% #363 0.79 #363 -10.2 #364
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #302 -4.1 #302
Freethrows 0.32 #140 72% #183 0.23 #145
Second Chance 33.5% #99 1.06 #148 0.36 #102
Turnovers 11.4% #1
Total Offense +1.6 #126

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #230 1.19 #224 +0.4 #154
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.64 #20 +1.3 #87
Three Pointers 43% #113 1.04 #215 -1.5 #253
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #170 +0.3 #174
Freethrows 0.25 #48 74% #285 0.19 #70
Second Chance 26.2% #44 0.97 #79 0.25 #39
Turnovers 16.5% #173
Total Defense +1.2 #129

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #237 -0.1% #155
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.3% #301 -0.5% #177
Possession Length 16.1 #62 17.5 #209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #56 0.17 #174
Improvement -1.6 #267 -0.8 #239

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 6.3% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 93.6% 98.2% 89.7%
.500 or above in Conference 74.3% 88.3% 62.5%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.8% 6.3% 3.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 37 - 69 - 12
Quad 49 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106 - 55 99% +29  1 - 0 +24 +5 F+ C+ A+ +10 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 24 @North Carolina St. L 70 - 94 8% -11  1 - 1 -5 +1 F+ B- A- -5 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 318 Alabama St. L 74 - 77 91% -4  1 - 2 -15 -10 F D B- -5 D A- D
 Fri, Nov 14 96 High Point W 91 - 74 51% +3  2 - 2 +20 +7 B- F+ A+ +11 A A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 192 South Alabama W 80 - 72 77% +5  3 - 2 +3 +14 B+ C B+ -10 D- A F
 Mon, Nov 24 134 Southern Illinois W 81 - 73 54% +5  4 - 2 +10 +12 C- A+ A+ -2 B- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 266 UTEP W 75 - 59 79% +7  5 - 2 +10 +9 F B+ A+ +3 D+ A+ B+
 Mon, Dec 1 142 @Middle Tennessee L 61 - 76 45% -4  5 - 3 -11 -5 F A+ C- -7 B- F C-
 Fri, Dec 5 152 @Drake W 74 - 69 47% +2  6 - 3 +8 +5 D- A- C- +4 A- B- D+
 Sun, Dec 14 113 Troy L 85 - 86 59% -0  6 - 4 -1 +14 A B+ B -15 D- C F
 Wed, Dec 17 321 Cleveland St. W 101 - 77 92% +7  7 - 4 +11 +13 B+ C- A -3 F A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 204 UNC Asheville W 72 - 47 79% +13  8 - 4 +19 +3 C- D+ A+ +18 A- A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 99 Wichita St. L 70 - 75 53% +6  8 - 5 0 - 1 -3 +4 D+ B+ A+ -7 D+ C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 67 @South Florida W 109 - 106 2OT 20% -3  9 - 5 1 - 1 +14 +11 C- D- A+ +3 C- A C
 Wed, Jan 7 101 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 76 53% -7  9 - 6 1 - 2 -3 -4 F B- B- +2 A+ B C-
 Sun, Jan 11 262 @East Carolina W 87 - 85 OT 70% +2  10 - 6 2 - 2 -1 +2 D- C A+ -2 D+ C+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 175 @Tulane W 82 - 69 54% +4  11 - 6 3 - 2 +15 +10 D A+ A- +5 B D C+
 Sun, Jan 18 70 Tulsa L 77 - 99 42% -10  11 - 7 3 - 3 -17 +1 D+ D- A+ -17 F A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 67 South Florida L 69 - 82 40% -8  11 - 8 3 - 4 -8 -7 F A- A+ +1 C B- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 341 @Texas San Antonio W 83 - 73 86% +1  12 - 8 4 - 4 +1 +6 C D A+ -5 C+ D F
 Sat, Jan 31 144 @North Texas L 67 - 68 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 100 Memphis W 75 - 74 52%
 Sun, Feb 8 230 Rice W 80 - 70 82%
 Wed, Feb 11 70 @Tulsa L 77 - 85 22%
 Sun, Feb 15 175 Tulane W 79 - 72 74%
 Wed, Feb 18 147 @Temple L 75 - 76 46%
 Sun, Feb 22 100 @Memphis L 72 - 77 31%
 Sun, Mar 1 144 North Texas W 70 - 65 67%
 Wed, Mar 4 165 @Charlotte W 75 - 74 51%
 Sun, Mar 8 262 East Carolina W 80 - 69 85%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 +3 +2 D+ C+ A+ +1 C B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 1.4 0.1 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.2 4.1 0.6 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.4 2.4 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.3 6.7 6.2 0.2 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 9.8 1.4 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 9.8 4.2 0.1 15.3 7th
8th 0.4 6.4 7.7 0.6 15.2 8th
9th 0.4 3.7 7.2 1.3 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 2.6 0.9 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.3 7.2 15.9 22.5 22.6 17.4 8.6 2.7 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 68.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
13-5 23.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 20.5% 20.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 2.7% 16.7% 16.7% 11.8 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.3
12-6 8.6% 11.2% 11.2% 12.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 7.6
11-7 17.4% 7.7% 7.7% 12.3 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 16.0
10-8 22.6% 3.8% 3.8% 12.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 21.8
9-9 22.5% 3.1% 3.1% 12.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 21.8
8-10 15.9% 1.7% 1.7% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 15.6
7-11 7.2% 1.7% 1.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.1
6-12 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 12.4 95.2 0.0%