Radford
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.6 #243
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 #267
Pace 76.0 #31
Improvement +4.5 #24

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #176 C C- C- B+ C+
Defense #297 D+ D C+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #211 1.11 #237 -1.6 #239
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #284 0.73 #206 -1.9 #279
Three Pointers 47% #65 1.01 #200 +2.8 #90
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #196 -0.8 #197
Freethrows 0.36 #25 73% #164 0.26 #35
Second Chance 27.6% #264 1.03 #198 0.29 #249
Turnovers 17.0% #219
Total Offense -0.3 #176

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #107 1.16 #180 -1.8 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #293 0.78 #226 +1.2 #100
Three Pointers 42% #159 1.13 #326 -2.8 #297
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #287 -3.4 #287
Freethrows 0.35 #309 72% #140 0.25 #301
Second Chance 33.2% #295 1.16 #313 0.38 #324
Turnovers 17.0% #141
Total Defense -4.2 #297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #117 1.4% #296
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.5% #217 5.1% #276
Possession Length 16.3 #74 16.9 #104
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #88 0.19 #244
Improvement +3.2 #36 +1.3 #101

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 4.7% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 25.8% 42.1% 14.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 97.2% 78.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 1.2% 2.3%
First Round3.3% 4.2% 2.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 413 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 359 Western Illinois W 80 - 75 89% +5  1 - 0 -13 +10 C+ A B+ -23 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 11 28 @North Carolina L 74 - 89 3% -11  1 - 1 +3 -3 D C- C +8 A+ B- C+
 Sat, Nov 15 148 Wright St. L 59 - 92 31% -13  1 - 2 -32 -17 F+ F F+ -14 F D C
 Sun, Nov 16 319 Cleveland St. L 82 - 87 68% +9  1 - 3 -15 -11 F D+ F+ -3 D B- C+
 Tue, Nov 18 90 @South Carolina L 58 - 87 10% -15  1 - 4 -20 -11 F D+ F -9 D- F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 115 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 81 33% -8  1 - 5 -8 -0 B- D F -7 F D- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 37 @SMU L 72 - 89 3% -11  1 - 6 -0 -3 F B- A +4 A- F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 266 Southern Miss L 75 - 82 66% -6  1 - 7 -16 -5 F D+ B -10 C+ C- C
 Sun, Dec 7 353 St. Francis (PA) W 89 - 56 87% +17  2 - 7 +16 +9 C A C +7 B- B+ B
 Sun, Dec 14 364 Coppin St. W 107 - 77 95% +12  3 - 7 +7 +12 A+ C+ D- -8 F C- A+
 Thu, Dec 18 135 @William & Mary L 83 - 96 20% -3  3 - 8 -8 +2 D+ B- C -9 B- F D-
 Sun, Dec 21 357 VMI W 97 - 90 88% +2  4 - 8 -10 +10 A+ A D -21 F F B
 Wed, Dec 31 301 @South Carolina Upstate W 76 - 69 52% +4  5 - 8 1 - 0 +2 +0 C- C F+ +1 B F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 255 Presbyterian W 80 - 61 65% +6  6 - 8 2 - 0 +11 +14 A F A- -1 B C F+
 Sat, Jan 10 205 UNC Asheville L 72 - 91 55% -9  6 - 9 2 - 1 -25 -6 F F+ A+ -17 F A C-
 Wed, Jan 14 363 @Gardner-Webb W 89 - 80 84% +5  7 - 9 3 - 1 -6 +8 D D- B+ -14 D- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 261 Longwood W 85 - 83 65% +11  8 - 9 4 - 1 -7 +9 B+ F+ B- -15 F F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 123 @Winthrop L 75 - 76 18% +2  8 - 10 4 - 2 +4 +5 A+ D- F -1 F B+ B
 Fri, Jan 23 100 High Point L 83 - 93 26% -1  8 - 11 4 - 3 -8 +3 A- D- F -11 F A- D-
 Thu, Jan 29 247 @Charleston Southern W 84 - 75 39% +8  9 - 11 5 - 3 +7 +3 C+ B F +4 B+ C B
 Sat, Jan 31 255 @Presbyterian L 75 - 77 42%
 Wed, Feb 4 123 Winthrop L 81 - 85 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 100 @High Point L 79 - 92 12%
 Sat, Feb 14 247 Charleston Southern W 84 - 81 62%
 Thu, Feb 19 363 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 74 94%
 Sat, Feb 21 205 @UNC Asheville L 75 - 80 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 301 South Carolina Upstate W 81 - 74 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 261 @Longwood L 79 - 81 43%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 7 -5 +0 C C- C- -4 D+ D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.5 0.1 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.2 15.7 19.1 7.6 0.9 46.4 3rd
4th 0.8 12.4 10.9 1.9 0.0 26.1 4th
5th 0.1 5.1 7.3 1.1 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 1.6 4.3 0.9 6.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 0.4 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.2 3.1 10.5 23.8 27.7 21.8 10.0 2.7 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 73.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-4 10.5% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1
11-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 2.7% 9.0% 9.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.4
11-5 10.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.4 0.3 0.2 9.5
10-6 21.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 20.6
9-7 27.7% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.1 1.1 26.6
8-8 23.8% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.9 22.9
7-9 10.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.3
6-10 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.1
5-11 0.2% 0.2
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 15.8 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%