Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.5 #167
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #181
Pace 65.8 #265
Improvement +6.2 #8

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #214 D+ C B- B F+
Defense #125 C+ B- C C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 1.13 #202 -4.9 #333
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #21 0.68 #296 +2.6 #61
Three Pointers 39% #233 1.04 #153 -0.8 #210
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #269 -3.1 #271
Freethrows 0.36 #29 72% #199 0.26 #42
Second Chance 30.0% #205 1.02 #216 0.30 #206
Turnovers 15.0% #91
Total Offense -1.8 #214

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #168 1.23 #275 -1.8 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #95 0.58 #7 +1.1 #108
Three Pointers 38% #269 0.96 #107 +2.6 #82
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #121 +1.9 #122
Freethrows 0.32 #239 71% #116 0.23 #215
Second Chance 31.7% #236 0.89 #19 0.28 #90
Turnovers 16.9% #155
Total Defense +1.3 #125

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.6% #350 -0.5% #124
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.5% #215 -3.4% #118
Possession Length 18.3 #275 17.4 #189
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #359 0.14 #87
Improvement +4.2 #14 +2.0 #63

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.4% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 27.7% 41.8% 16.3%
.500 or above in Conference 33.1% 49.2% 19.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.9% 2.4% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 36 - 66 - 15
Quad 48 - 214 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 312 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 85% +5  1 - 0 -9 -8 F D+ D -1 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 27 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 5% -31  1 - 1 -30 -8 F D A- -18 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 255 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 77% +3  2 - 1 -3 -1 D- D A+ -2 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 344 Bryant W 68 - 50 90% +4  3 - 1 +3 -3 F C+ B +8 A+ D C+
 Wed, Nov 19 321 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 72% +12  4 - 1 +8 +12 B- B- C+ -3 C+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 322 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 87% -6  4 - 2 -21 -20 F C B- -1 C- F+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 273 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 80% +14  5 - 2 +20 +11 B- A D +11 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 93 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 19% +2  5 - 3 +6 -3 C+ C F +9 A A A
 Sat, Dec 13 121 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 50% +2  5 - 4 -3 +4 F A A- -8 B F+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 61 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 12% -12  5 - 5 -4 +4 B- B F -8 D- C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 103 Murray St. L 79 - 85 41% +2  5 - 6 0 - 1 -4 +2 C+ C C+ -6 D- A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 114 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 25% -3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -4 -6 F+ F+ B+ +0 C+ C- B
 Thu, Jan 1 134 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 31% -5  5 - 8 0 - 3 -0 -2 F F+ A +2 A- B- F+
 Sun, Jan 4 138 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 54% -1  6 - 8 1 - 3 +5 +2 D D B +4 C+ B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 88 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 35% +5  7 - 8 2 - 3 +9 +13 A+ F C -3 B+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 10 103 @Murray St. L 79 - 92 21% -6  7 - 9 2 - 4 -5 +2 B D+ F -7 F+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 78 @Belmont L 74 - 78 15% -3  7 - 10 2 - 5 +6 +10 C- A+ C+ -4 C- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 114 Northern Iowa W 54 - 44 47% +2  8 - 10 3 - 5 +10 -3 F B A+ +16 A+ B- C-
 Wed, Jan 21 134 Southern Illinois W 69 - 63 53% +11  9 - 10 4 - 5 +5 +6 B+ D B -0 A- B C+
 Wed, Jan 28 78 Belmont L 77 - 78 32% -2  9 - 11 4 - 6 +3 +7 B C- A -3 D+ D+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 196 @Indiana St. L 72 - 73 45%
 Tue, Feb 3 127 @Bradley L 68 - 74 30%
 Fri, Feb 6 267 Evansville W 72 - 64 79%
 Mon, Feb 9 152 @Drake L 68 - 72 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 88 @Illinois St. L 64 - 74 18%
 Sun, Feb 15 196 Indiana St. W 75 - 70 67%
 Wed, Feb 18 127 Bradley W 72 - 71 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 138 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 72 33%
 Wed, Feb 25 152 Drake W 71 - 69 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 267 @Evansville W 69 - 67 58%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 11 -1 -2 D+ C B- +1 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.6 1.6 0.5 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.0 4th
5th 0.3 4.9 4.4 0.5 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 8.6 1.1 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.3 4.0 11.4 3.6 0.1 19.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.4 12.2 6.0 0.3 24.6 8th
9th 0.6 4.3 8.0 4.5 0.3 17.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.2 2.0 7.0 14.4 20.9 22.4 18.1 9.9 3.9 1.0 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 17.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 3.6% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 1.0% 6.9% 6.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 3.9% 6.6% 6.6% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7
11-9 9.9% 4.8% 4.8% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.4
10-10 18.1% 2.6% 2.6% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 17.7
9-11 22.4% 1.5% 1.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 22.0
8-12 20.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.1 0.1 20.7
7-13 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.4
6-14 7.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.0
5-15 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.1 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%