Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.5 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #298
Pace 61.4 #349
Improvement -0.5 #209

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #333 D D+ C F F+
Defense #231 C D+ C+ D D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #302 1.09 #264 -3.7 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% #11 0.84 #65 +6.4 #4
Three Pointers 32% #337 0.84 #349 -7.3 #354
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #314 -4.6 #314
Freethrows 0.20 #364 70% #244 0.14 #364
Second Chance 25.1% #321 1.08 #128 0.27 #273
Turnovers 16.3% #171
Total Offense -6.8 #333

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #12 1.14 #154 -4.4 #325
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #296 0.61 #11 +2.7 #13
Three Pointers 36% #298 1.02 #192 +2.2 #104
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #166 +0.5 #166
Freethrows 0.35 #314 73% #225 0.26 #320
Second Chance 33.6% #302 1.06 #209 0.36 #271
Turnovers 17.6% #101
Total Defense -1.8 #231

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.0% #354 2.2% #349
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.2% #265 -3.1% #125
Possession Length 21.1 #365 15.7 #11
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #358 0.20 #289
Improvement -0.2 #192 -0.2 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 35.1% 43.6% 16.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 96.9% 83.3%
Conference Champion 4.8% 6.2% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Haven (Home) - 69.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 413 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 61 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0 - 1 -11 -19 F F C+ +7 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 280 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 33% +7  1 - 1 +4 +0 C+ C- F +4 B A- B
 Wed, Nov 12 342 @Canisius L 55 - 58 51% -3  1 - 2 -12 -12 F+ F+ F -0 F A B+
 Sat, Nov 15 356 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 79% +13  2 - 2 -3 +7 C- A+ D+ -10 A F A-
 Thu, Nov 20 91 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  2 - 3 +4 +5 B- C D+ -1 A- C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 168 @Marshall L 60 - 69 15% -5  2 - 4 -7 -6 F C- C -2 D A C
 Sun, Nov 30 57 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 3% -18  2 - 5 -19 -21 F C- F -3 C+ F+ B-
 Fri, Dec 5 316 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 42% -2  2 - 6 -14 +3 F A+ A -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 136 @Davidson L 47 - 80 11% -17  2 - 7 -28 -13 D- F C -21 F D D+
 Wed, Dec 17 76 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  2 - 8 -3 -7 C- C D- +4 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 362 Binghamton W 82 - 61 84% +19  3 - 8 +2 +0 C- D B +1 C A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 346 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 73% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -22 -7 F C F+ -15 F B- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 275 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 53% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +5 +3 D+ B+ C+ +3 A+ D- C-
 Thu, Jan 8 227 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 23% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -3 -5 F+ C C+ +2 B A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 324 @Wagner W 70 - 69 44% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -6 -2 C F A+ -4 C C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 334 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 70% +2  5 - 11 2 - 3 -19 -18 F F D+ -1 C+ C- C
 Mon, Jan 19 296 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 58% +14  6 - 11 3 - 3 +7 +10 A+ C- C -0 A+ F C
 Fri, Jan 23 333 @New Haven W 61 - 57 48% -0  7 - 11 4 - 3 -4 -1 C- F+ B- -2 D C- B+
 Sun, Jan 25 358 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 81% +3  8 - 11 5 - 3 -16 -7 C- F+ D+ -8 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 333 New Haven W 64 - 59 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 358 @Chicago St. W 68 - 65 62%
 Thu, Feb 5 354 St. Francis (PA) W 72 - 64 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 67 - 66 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 275 @Le Moyne L 67 - 72 32%
 Thu, Feb 19 324 Wagner W 69 - 65 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 227 LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 69 42%
 Thu, Feb 26 296 @Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 69 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 334 @Stonehill L 61 - 62 49%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 7 -9 -7 D D+ C -2 C D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.0 0.4 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.8 6.2 1.5 0.0 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 9.7 11.1 2.9 0.1 25.5 3rd
4th 0.7 8.3 10.6 2.6 0.1 22.2 4th
5th 0.2 4.3 8.6 2.5 0.1 15.5 5th
6th 1.3 5.6 2.3 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.6 2.0 0.1 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.2 2.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.7 12.8 20.9 23.8 19.9 11.1 3.7 0.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 91.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-3 55.2% 2.0    0.8 1.0 0.3
12-4 18.5% 2.1    0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1
11-5 1.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 1.4 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.4% 0.4
13-3 3.7% 3.7
12-4 11.1% 11.1
11-5 19.9% 19.9
10-6 23.8% 23.8
9-7 20.9% 20.9
8-8 12.8% 12.8
7-9 5.7% 5.7
6-10 1.5% 1.5
5-11 0.2% 0.2
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4%
Lose Out 0.2%