Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.2#329
Expected Predictive Rating-9.9#311
Pace62.1#350
Improvement-3.5#351

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#329
First Shot-6.5#343
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#147
Layup/Dunks-1.1#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#344
Freethrows-4.7#360
Improvement+0.7#119

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#313
First Shot-2.4#254
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#299
Layups/Dunks-3.7#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows-2.1#308
Improvement-4.1#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 13.7% 40.3% 13.1%
.500 or above in Conference 55.0% 73.1% 54.5%
Conference Champion 4.1% 9.1% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.3% 4.1% 8.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 2.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 911 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 58 @Northwestern L 47-70 3%     0 - 1 -10.7 -20.1 +8.6
  Thu, Nov 6 287 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 27%     1 - 1 +4.1 -0.3 +4.7
  Wed, Nov 12 340 @Canisius L 55-58 42%     1 - 2 -11.2 -12.1 +0.5
  Sat, Nov 15 359 Morgan St. W 86-72 76%     2 - 2 -3.6 +6.4 -9.6
  Thu, Nov 20 106 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 7%     2 - 3 +1.9 +5.2 -3.7
  Sun, Nov 23 161 @Marshall L 60-69 11%     2 - 4 -5.9 -5.1 -1.8
  Sun, Nov 30 64 @West Virginia L 38-70 3%     2 - 5 -20.4 -22.0 -3.3
  Fri, Dec 5 319 @Lafayette L 71-79 36%     2 - 6 -14.4 +3.5 -18.7
  Sat, Dec 13 127 @Davidson L 47-80 8%     2 - 7 -27.8 -14.4 -19.7
  Wed, Dec 17 68 @Syracuse L 58-79 2%    
  Sat, Dec 20 356 Binghamton W 70-63 74%    
  Fri, Jan 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-67 77%    
  Sun, Jan 4 307 Le Moyne W 73-72 54%    
  Thu, Jan 8 211 @LIU Brooklyn L 65-75 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 301 @Wagner L 65-70 31%    
  Sat, Jan 17 341 Stonehill W 67-63 65%    
  Mon, Jan 19 242 Central Connecticut St. L 64-67 41%    
  Fri, Jan 23 337 @New Haven L 63-65 41%    
  Sun, Jan 25 338 Chicago St. W 72-68 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 337 New Haven W 66-62 63%    
  Sat, Jan 31 338 @Chicago St. L 69-71 42%    
  Thu, Feb 5 363 St. Francis (PA) W 73-65 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-70 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 301 Wagner W 68-67 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 211 LIU Brooklyn L 68-72 36%    
  Thu, Feb 26 242 @Central Connecticut St. L 61-70 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 341 @Stonehill L 64-66 43%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.8 3.9 0.7 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 6.3 5.1 0.8 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 5.8 5.6 1.0 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.9 6.1 1.4 0.0 13.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 3.4 1.0 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 5.3 9.0 12.0 14.8 15.2 13.7 11.0 7.8 4.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 96.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 88.1% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
13-3 64.0% 1.2    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-4 32.3% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
11-5 6.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.2% 0.2
14-2 0.7% 0.7
13-3 1.9% 1.9
12-4 4.2% 4.2
11-5 7.8% 7.8
10-6 11.0% 11.0
9-7 13.7% 13.7
8-8 15.2% 15.2
7-9 14.8% 14.8
6-10 12.0% 12.0
5-11 9.0% 9.0
4-12 5.3% 5.3
3-13 2.6% 2.6
2-14 1.0% 1.0
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%