Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.6 #136
Expected Predictive Rating +3.8 #106
Pace 62.6 #337
Improvement -3.1 #311

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #173 B- C C D+ C
Defense #112 C+ B- C+ B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 1.15 #187 -2.7 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #185 0.95 #12 +1.8 #86
Three Pointers 46% #89 1.10 #69 +4.2 #52
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #79 +3.3 #79
Freethrows 0.30 #213 67% #335 0.20 #259
Second Chance 30.4% #190 1.02 #212 0.31 #194
Turnovers 16.6% #192
Total Offense -0.3 #173

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #229 1.17 #197 +0.6 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #25 0.84 #306 -3.8 #361
Three Pointers 35% #322 0.93 #70 +4.5 #28
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #136 +1.3 #138
Freethrows 0.28 #116 65% #4 0.18 #55
Second Chance 28.7% #109 0.95 #53 0.27 #74
Turnovers 17.5% #107
Total Defense +1.9 #112

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #223 -2.0% #37
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.1% #68 -0.5% #176
Possession Length 18.3 #268 18.4 #320
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #285 0.17 #195
Improvement -3.0 #331 -0.2 #206

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.3
.500 or above 81.3% 94.0% 74.6%
.500 or above in Conference 57.3% 78.6% 46.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 34.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 53 - 8
Quad 36 - 59 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 131 Washington St. W 85 - 69 61% +16  1 - 0 +15 +10 A+ C- F +5 A+ D A
 Tue, Nov 11 165 @Charlotte W 62 - 55 47% +10  2 - 0 +10 +0 B+ F+ F +11 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 145 Bowling Green W 91 - 87 64% +9  3 - 0 +2 +7 A+ D- F -6 B D- F+
 Fri, Nov 21 132 Boston College W 59 - 49 50% +3  4 - 0 +12 +3 B D- A- +10 B B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 38 Utah St. L 60 - 94 14% -17  4 - 1 -21 -8 C- C- F -12 F A- A
 Fri, Nov 28 293 N.C. A&T W 90 - 74 87% +9  5 - 1 +6 +17 A A+ B+ -10 F A- D+
 Thu, Dec 4 351 The Citadel W 79 - 63 94% +9  6 - 1 +0 +5 D C+ A- -3 D- B B
 Sun, Dec 7 42 St. Mary's L 61 - 70 24% -1  6 - 2 -0 -2 C+ F+ C +1 C+ B B-
 Sat, Dec 13 308 Mercyhurst W 80 - 47 89% +17  7 - 2 +21 +19 A+ C+ B +9 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 147 Temple L 63 - 68 65% -6  7 - 3 -7 -4 F B+ B -4 B A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 17 @Kansas L 61 - 90 5% -20  7 - 4 -8 -4 B- C+ F -3 F+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 122 Duquesne L 83 - 89 2OT 58% +3  7 - 5 0 - 1 -7 +1 D D+ A+ -7 B C- D
 Sat, Jan 3 139 @Saint Joseph's W 62 - 56 40% -5  8 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +3 D A+ F +8 A- C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 280 @Loyola Chicago W 79 - 64 71% +10  9 - 5 2 - 1 +11 +7 A- C D- +4 A D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 109 Rhode Island L 45 - 70 54% -14  9 - 6 2 - 2 -24 -19 F F C- -10 F A+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 65 @George Washington W 84 - 79 17% +9  10 - 6 3 - 2 +17 +19 A+ A C+ -2 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 195 Fordham W 68 - 63 74% -1  11 - 6 4 - 2 -0 -0 C+ D D +1 F+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 75 29% -0  11 - 7 4 - 3 +1 +7 B+ C A+ -7 C- F A
 Wed, Jan 28 86 @George Mason L 52 - 60 22% -3  11 - 8 4 - 4 +2 -6 D C F +6 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 117 @Richmond L 68 - 72 34%
 Tue, Feb 3 26 Saint Louis L 67 - 78 16%
 Fri, Feb 6 280 Loyola Chicago W 75 - 63 87%
 Sun, Feb 15 85 @Dayton L 63 - 71 23%
 Wed, Feb 18 117 Richmond W 71 - 69 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 195 @Fordham W 65 - 64 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 122 @Duquesne L 71 - 75 36%
 Sun, Mar 1 202 La Salle W 70 - 63 76%
 Wed, Mar 4 139 Saint Joseph's W 69 - 66 62%
 Sat, Mar 7 141 @St. Bonaventure L 69 - 72 40%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2 +0 B- C C +2 C+ B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 4.5 1.5 0.1 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 7.9 3.7 0.2 14.0 5th
6th 0.8 7.8 7.1 0.7 16.3 6th
7th 0.1 5.0 9.5 1.9 0.0 16.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 10.3 3.8 0.1 15.6 8th
9th 0.3 5.6 5.2 0.2 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 5.1 0.6 7.4 10th
11th 0.3 2.4 1.2 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 2.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.1 1.4 5.5 13.6 22.0 23.6 19.5 9.9 3.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 7.1% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.6% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.8% 2.5% 2.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.4
11-7 9.9% 1.5% 1.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8
10-8 19.5% 0.8% 0.8% 12.1 0.1 0.0 19.3
9-9 23.6% 0.6% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 23.4
8-10 22.0% 0.2% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.9
7-11 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6
6-12 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 5.5
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 12.2 99.3 0.0%