Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 #168
Expected Predictive Rating -0.3 #167
Pace 72.7 #80
Improvement -3.5 #318

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #153 C+ B- D+ D+ D
Defense #203 C+ C+ C D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #350 1.31 #40 -2.8 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #88 0.71 #244 +1.2 #108
Three Pointers 45% #100 1.06 #120 +2.9 #87
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #136 +1.4 #135
Freethrows 0.26 #311 74% #119 0.19 #285
Second Chance 31.9% #142 1.15 #59 0.37 #79
Turnovers 17.8% #275
Total Offense +0.3 #153

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #285 1.15 #170 +2.1 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #81 0.75 #159 -1.1 #277
Three Pointers 41% #177 1.01 #168 +0.0 #174
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #148 +1.0 #147
Freethrows 0.35 #317 72% #149 0.25 #312
Second Chance 32.5% #271 0.90 #33 0.29 #110
Turnovers 16.1% #200
Total Defense -0.9 #203

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #319 -1.3% #76
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.1% #95 -0.7% #171
Possession Length 15.7 #43 17.8 #258
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #92 0.18 #221
Improvement -1.0 #235 -2.5 #313

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 14.6% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 94.8% 98.8% 92.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 95.9% 80.9%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.1% 14.6% 7.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 36.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 412 - 519 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 171 @Massachusetts W 78 - 72 40% +5  1 - 0 +8 -4 A C F +11 C A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 164 @Toledo W 85 - 73 38% -1  2 - 0 +15 +9 A D- D- +5 B B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 193 Elon W 96 - 89 67% +6  3 - 0 +2 +9 B+ A+ D- -8 C+ C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 22 @Virginia L 78 - 104 4% -20  3 - 1 -6 +7 C- A+ F+ -12 C- D+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98 - 70 88% +5  4 - 1 +15 +10 A+ F C+ +2 A C+ B
 Sun, Nov 23 308 Mercyhurst W 69 - 60 85% +5  5 - 1 -3 +1 B+ F+ C -2 B+ C C
 Wed, Nov 26 169 Lipscomb L 67 - 90 62% -17  5 - 2 -27 -14 F C+ F+ -11 F A B+
 Wed, Dec 3 121 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 70 28% -1  5 - 3 +5 +7 C- A+ F+ -3 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 214 @Ohio L 81 - 88 49% -6  5 - 4 -7 +6 C- B C -12 D C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 10 166 Western Kentucky W 77 - 61 61% +7  6 - 4 +12 +5 D+ B+ A+ +7 B- A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 151 Wright St. W 76 - 74 58% -1  7 - 4 -1 +8 C+ A- C -9 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 113 @Troy L 63 - 70 25% -6  7 - 5 0 - 1 -1 -7 F D D- +7 A A- B-
 Wed, Dec 31 270 Georgia St. W 84 - 80 79% +2  8 - 5 1 - 1 -5 +4 B- A F+ -9 D D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 200 Appalachian St. W 88 - 81 69% +8  9 - 5 2 - 1 +1 +14 A+ F B+ -12 D D C
 Wed, Jan 7 210 @James Madison W 66 - 64 48% +8  10 - 5 3 - 1 +2 -0 F B+ B +3 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 270 @Georgia St. L 73 - 81 60% +3  10 - 6 3 - 2 -11 -2 C- B- F -9 B F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 236 Coastal Carolina L 83 - 85 74% -5  10 - 7 3 - 3 -9 +9 A- D+ B+ -18 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 210 James Madison W 77 - 72 70% -0  11 - 7 4 - 3 -1 +1 D B+ F -2 B- F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 361 Louisiana Monroe W 115 - 60 95% +28  12 - 7 5 - 3 +36 +27 A+ A+ D- +6 A+ C- C-
 Wed, Jan 28 271 @Texas St. L 68 - 72 60% -4  12 - 8 5 - 4 -7 -3 D F+ A+ -4 D+ F+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 156 @Arkansas St. L 81 - 85 36%
 Wed, Feb 4 259 Southern Miss W 80 - 72 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 91 Miami (OH) L 80 - 84 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 222 @Old Dominion W 77 - 76 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 245 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 82 53%
 Mon, Feb 16 192 South Alabama W 74 - 70 66%
 Thu, Feb 19 200 @Appalachian St. L 69 - 70 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 236 @Coastal Carolina W 76 - 75 53%
 Tue, Feb 24 222 Old Dominion W 80 - 74 71%
 Fri, Feb 27 245 Georgia Southern W 86 - 79 74%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 -1 +0 C+ B- D+ -1 C+ C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.1 1st
2nd 0.1 4.5 10.7 5.5 0.8 21.6 2nd
3rd 1.7 10.9 4.3 0.2 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 6.6 6.4 0.2 13.2 4th
5th 0.9 9.2 1.2 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 4.1 4.7 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.2 7.0 0.7 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 4.4 0.1 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.8 0.9 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 2.9 0.1 3.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 0.7 2.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.4 9.2 17.5 23.0 23.1 15.5 6.2 1.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 25.9% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.7% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1
12-6 1.6% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.1% 29.0% 29.0% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 6.2% 32.0% 32.0% 13.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 4.2
12-6 15.5% 20.7% 20.7% 13.8 0.0 0.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 12.3
11-7 23.1% 10.8% 10.8% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 20.6
10-8 23.0% 6.0% 6.0% 14.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 21.6
9-9 17.5% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 17.0
8-10 9.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.0
7-11 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 14.0 89.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.5 50.0 47.1 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%