Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #293
Expected Predictive Rating -5.2 #243
Pace 64.4 #299
Improvement -3.5 #323

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #240 C- D+ C D+ F+
Defense #308 D+ C F+ B- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #336 1.18 #141 -3.6 #305
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #19 0.77 #150 +4.0 #26
Three Pointers 38% #252 1.02 #183 -1.6 #237
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #211 -1.1 #210
Freethrows 0.25 #325 75% #84 0.19 #296
Second Chance 26.7% #288 0.97 #275 0.26 #298
Turnovers 16.0% #154
Total Offense -2.7 #240

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #94 1.11 #108 -1.0 #208
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #354 0.86 #325 +2.0 #44
Three Pointers 45% #78 1.10 #289 -3.6 #319
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #268 -2.6 #267
Freethrows 0.25 #44 79% #364 0.20 #83
Second Chance 32.0% #248 0.98 #90 0.31 #163
Turnovers 12.6% #349
Total Defense -4.7 #308

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #349 2.3% #354
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.4% #151 2.6% #232
Possession Length 18.8 #314 17.7 #242
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #337 0.13 #49
Improvement +0.9 #134 -4.4 #354

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.7% 27.0% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 85.1% 94.2% 77.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.5% 96.7%
Conference Champion 11.6% 22.9% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four12.5% 14.0% 11.3%
First Round14.8% 19.5% 10.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 45.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 4
Quad 414 - 916 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 177 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 20% -12  0 - 1 -20 -21 F D+ A- +0 C A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 131 @Boston College W 60 - 59 13% -4  1 - 1 +6 -2 B+ F F+ +8 A B- C
 Sun, Nov 16 170 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 19% -12  1 - 2 -5 -2 C- D+ C- -2 B- F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 118 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 11% +5  2 - 2 +19 +5 C F A+ +15 A- A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 277 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 59% +2  3 - 2 -8 +13 B A+ C+ -21 F D F
 Wed, Dec 3 53 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 4% -9  3 - 3 -3 +6 A+ F C- -10 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 7 252 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 31% -14  3 - 4 -19 -19 F F A -1 C C D+
 Sat, Dec 13 362 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 71% +8  4 - 4 +4 +11 A+ D- F -6 D D+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 272 Fairfield L 70 - 84 57% -14  4 - 5 -23 -5 F B+ B -19 F C- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 211 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 24% -1  4 - 6 0 - 1 -6 +21 A+ C- A -28 F+ F F
 Sun, Jan 4 339 New Haven W 72 - 61 76% +10  5 - 6 1 - 1 -4 +9 A- C C+ -10 C+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 337 Stonehill W 76 - 69 74% +6  6 - 6 2 - 1 -7 +5 B A F -12 F B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 284 @Le Moyne W 69 - 59 37% +6  7 - 6 3 - 1 +6 -7 F D- D +13 A+ B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 353 @St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 90 63% +7  8 - 6 4 - 1 -3 +23 A F A+ -26 F+ F F
 Mon, Jan 19 299 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 79 41% -14  8 - 7 4 - 2 -23 -3 F B- B- -22 F C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 344 Fairleigh Dickinson L 66 - 76 76% -4  8 - 8 4 - 3 -25 -2 F+ A- D- -25 F B F
 Mon, Jan 26 337 @Stonehill L 59 - 61 53% +3  8 - 9 4 - 4 -10 -9 B- F+ F -1 D+ B+ C
 Thu, Jan 29 329 @Wagner W 62 - 55 51% +2  9 - 9 5 - 4 -0 -5 D F+ D+ +6 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 211 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 73 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 358 Chicago St. W 77 - 66 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 329 Wagner W 74 - 68 72%
 Thu, Feb 12 339 @New Haven W 66 - 65 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 344 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 72 - 71 56%
 Thu, Feb 19 284 Le Moyne W 75 - 72 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 358 @Chicago St. W 74 - 69 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 299 Mercyhurst W 68 - 64 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 353 St. Francis (PA) W 78 - 68 80%
Totals 15 - 12 11 - 7 -7 -3 C- D+ C -5 D+ C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.1 3.2 11.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 7.0 11.8 4.8 0.3 24.5 2nd
3rd 0.9 8.5 15.7 5.4 0.4 31.0 3rd
4th 0.3 5.2 9.7 2.7 0.2 18.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 5.0 1.3 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.2 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.2 1.7 7th
8th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.4 12.4 20.1 25.9 20.4 10.3 3.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 90.9% 3.2    2.0 1.1 0.1
13-3 49.7% 5.1    1.8 2.6 0.7 0.0
12-4 14.5% 3.0    0.4 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
11-5 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 4.3 4.7 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 3.5% 44.2% 44.2% 14.9 0.3 1.2 0.1 2.0
13-3 10.3% 33.0% 33.0% 15.8 0.0 0.7 2.7 6.9
12-4 20.4% 24.9% 24.9% 15.9 0.3 4.7 15.3
11-5 25.9% 22.4% 22.4% 16.0 0.2 5.6 20.1
10-6 20.1% 17.5% 17.5% 16.0 0.0 3.5 16.6
9-7 12.4% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 1.6 10.8
8-8 5.4% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.7 4.7
7-9 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-10 0.3% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 15.9 78.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 14.9 16.5 74.8 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%