Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.4 #315
Expected Predictive Rating -11.9 #336
Pace 67.6 #215
Improvement +0.9 #145

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #311 D D C C- B-
Defense #294 C- D D C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.06 #288 -0.6 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #249 0.56 #358 -3.0 #322
Three Pointers 42% #153 0.96 #253 -0.6 #202
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #308 -4.2 #308
Freethrows 0.29 #238 70% #271 0.20 #245
Second Chance 25.3% #320 1.00 #231 0.25 #308
Turnovers 16.0% #151
Total Offense -5.2 #311

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.19 #222 -1.1 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #69 0.77 #207 -1.6 #305
Three Pointers 36% #298 1.13 #319 +0.4 #163
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #261 -2.4 #261
Freethrows 0.29 #160 78% #357 0.23 #168
Second Chance 32.0% #252 1.17 #316 0.37 #304
Turnovers 14.0% #323
Total Defense -4.2 #294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #105 -0.8% #101
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.3% #325 5.4% #285
Possession Length 18.0 #238 17.0 #112
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #323 0.19 #245
Improvement -0.6 #220 +1.5 #90

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.4% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 15.5% 34.6% 10.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.5% 10.8% 28.3%
First Four2.6% 3.4% 2.4%
First Round1.3% 1.5% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Away) - 21.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 49 - 1310 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 139 @Saint Joseph's L 76 - 85 11% -6  0 - 1 -5 +7 C- B- B -12 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 8 33 @Texas L 60 - 97 2% -18  0 - 2 -20 -8 D- B F -13 C+ F C-
 Thu, Nov 13 174 Cornell L 78 - 97 31% -7  0 - 3 -23 -9 F D B -13 C F D
 Mon, Nov 17 57 @West Virginia L 59 - 81 3% -11  0 - 4 -9 -3 B D+ F -7 D D C
 Fri, Nov 21 337 @Stonehill L 70 - 74 45% -4  0 - 5 -12 -3 F+ D F -9 F B- C
 Fri, Nov 28 284 Le Moyne L 63 - 76 52% -1  0 - 6 -23 -14 F F+ F -9 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 297 Ball St. W 55 - 37 55% +4  1 - 6 +7 -15 F D+ A+ +25 A+ A- B
 Sun, Nov 30 199 Monmouth L 74 - 88 35% -13  1 - 7 -19 +0 C D C+ -19 F A+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 299 Mercyhurst W 79 - 71 56% +2  2 - 7 -3 +11 A+ B- F -13 B F F
 Mon, Dec 8 192 @Penn L 72 - 74 17% -6  2 - 8 -1 -3 C+ F D- +2 B- B+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 164 @Charlotte L 67 - 81 13% -11  2 - 9 -11 +5 C- C+ C- -19 F C F
 Sat, Dec 20 110 @Georgia Tech L 81 - 95 8% -7  2 - 10 -7 +12 A- F A- -20 D+ F F
 Wed, Dec 31 214 Colgate L 77 - 85 38% -1  2 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -4 D C+ D -10 D A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 318 @Loyola Maryland W 79 - 64 39% +15  3 - 11 1 - 1 +9 +8 C A+ B +2 C+ A- F+
 Wed, Jan 7 286 Boston University L 67 - 83 53% -10  3 - 12 1 - 2 -26 -10 D- F A -17 F+ C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 175 @Navy L 50 - 76 15% -20  3 - 13 1 - 3 -24 -17 F+ F F+ -8 F C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 322 @Bucknell L 69 - 76 40% +6  3 - 14 1 - 4 -14 -1 D- D- C- -13 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 323 Holy Cross W 74 - 55 64% +12  4 - 14 2 - 4 +6 +0 D- C+ A+ +7 A+ C+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 286 @Boston University L 73 - 77 OT 30% +2  4 - 15 2 - 5 -8 -6 F+ F C+ -2 C- C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 304 @Lehigh L 59 - 64 35% -7  4 - 16 2 - 6 -10 -11 F F+ B +0 B- F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 322 Bucknell W 81 - 79 63% +6  5 - 16 3 - 6 -11 +9 C- C B+ -20 D- D- C
 Sat, Jan 31 233 @American L 68 - 76 22%
 Wed, Feb 4 175 Navy L 66 - 71 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 334 @Army L 74 - 75 46%
 Wed, Feb 11 318 Loyola Maryland W 76 - 73 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 304 Lehigh W 72 - 70 58%
 Wed, Feb 18 323 @Holy Cross L 70 - 72 42%
 Sun, Feb 22 233 American L 71 - 73 41%
 Wed, Feb 25 214 @Colgate L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 334 Army W 77 - 72 68%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -9 -5 D D C -4 C- D D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.5 2.2 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 1.3 8.8 4.6 0.2 14.9 5th
6th 0.3 8.5 7.0 0.7 0.0 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 3.5 10.8 1.7 16.0 7th
8th 1.8 10.3 3.6 0.1 15.8 8th
9th 1.0 6.7 6.0 0.5 14.3 9th
10th 0.9 4.4 4.4 1.0 10.8 10th
Total 0.9 5.4 13.0 21.2 24.8 19.3 11.0 3.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 30.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.7% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.1 0.6
10-8 3.6% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.2 3.4
9-9 11.0% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.8 10.2
8-10 19.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 18.8
7-11 24.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.5 24.3
6-12 21.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 20.9
5-13 13.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.8
4-14 5.4% 5.4
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 16.0 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%