Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.8 #344
Expected Predictive Rating -14.2 #349
Pace 65.5 #268
Improvement +3.9 #30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #321 D D+ C- D+ C
Defense #342 F+ B C- D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #322 1.10 #251 -4.3 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #217 0.80 #114 -0.5 #203
Three Pointers 49% #33 0.85 #348 +0.0 #179
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #318 -4.9 #318
Freethrows 0.27 #273 69% #275 0.19 #287
Second Chance 30.4% #191 0.90 #340 0.27 #271
Turnovers 17.1% #228
Total Offense -5.7 #321

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #190 1.30 #336 -2.8 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #259 0.83 #294 +0.3 #167
Three Pointers 43% #104 1.21 #363 -5.5 #351
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #360 -8.0 #361
Freethrows 0.33 #286 72% #166 0.24 #279
Second Chance 28.2% #93 0.95 #54 0.27 #61
Turnovers 15.3% #247
Total Defense -6.1 #342

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #204 0.7% #231
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.3% #324 14.9% #361
Possession Length 19.2 #336 16.5 #46
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.07 #364 0.18 #228
Improvement +0.0 #181 +3.9 #18

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.0% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 61.4% 82.1% 51.1%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.1% 2.1%
First Four4.5% 4.9% 4.3%
First Round2.1% 1.8% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Away) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 48 - 139 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 6 @Iowa St. L 50 - 88 0% -24  0 - 1 -14 -11 F C D+ -3 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 230 @St. Peter's L 83 - 93 15% -7  0 - 2 -11 +8 A+ B+ F -18 F B- D
 Wed, Nov 12 33 @Texas L 58 - 93 1% -17  0 - 3 -18 -13 F+ F B+ -3 D A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 332 @NJIT L 81 - 93 34% -11  0 - 4 -20 -1 F+ D C -18 F C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 311 East Texas A&M L 65 - 70 50% +5  0 - 5 -17 -8 C+ C- F -9 F B C+
 Wed, Nov 26 334 Army L 73 - 81 59% -2  0 - 6 -22 -5 F A- A -17 D D+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 66 @Providence L 64 - 94 3% -23  0 - 7 -19 -3 D+ C F -17 F B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 193 @Fordham L 54 - 75 12% -11  0 - 8 -20 -12 C F F+ -9 F C B-
 Mon, Dec 22 131 @Boston College L 61 - 72 7% +2  0 - 9 -6 +4 C D+ A+ -12 F+ D- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 73 @Minnesota L 43 - 60 3% -7  0 - 10 -6 -17 F F+ F +8 A B A-
 Fri, Jan 2 299 @Mercyhurst W 74 - 67 26% -0  1 - 10 1 - 0 +2 +8 A+ F+ F -5 C C+ B+
 Sun, Jan 4 353 @St. Francis (PA) L 82 - 85 46% +0  1 - 11 1 - 1 -14 +2 D- C A+ -16 D- F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 358 Chicago St. W 70 - 63 72% +9  2 - 11 2 - 1 -11 -7 F+ F+ D+ -3 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 339 @New Haven L 55 - 65 38% -10  2 - 12 2 - 2 -19 -13 F F B- -7 F B D
 Sat, Jan 17 211 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 66 29% -2  2 - 13 2 - 3 -13 -11 F F C- -3 D- A- C+
 Mon, Jan 19 329 Wagner W 68 - 61 56% +4  3 - 13 3 - 3 -6 +1 C- A- F -6 C+ B+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 293 @Central Connecticut St. W 76 - 66 24% +4  4 - 13 4 - 3 +6 +15 A- D- A -7 C- F B-
 Mon, Jan 26 284 Le Moyne L 74 - 87 43% -13  4 - 14 4 - 4 -23 -0 F A A+ -23 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 337 @Stonehill L 57 - 58 36% -1  4 - 15 4 - 5 -9 -5 F A- C- -4 C+ D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 329 @Wagner L 68 - 72 33%
 Thu, Feb 5 337 Stonehill W 67 - 65 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 299 Mercyhurst L 66 - 67 47%
 Thu, Feb 12 353 St. Francis (PA) W 76 - 71 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 293 Central Connecticut St. L 71 - 72 44%
 Thu, Feb 19 358 @Chicago St. W 72 - 71 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 339 New Haven W 67 - 64 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 284 @Le Moyne L 70 - 78 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 211 @LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 79 14%
Totals 8 - 20 8 - 10 -12 -6 D D+ C- -6 F+ B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.8 1.9 0.2 6.5 3rd
4th 0.6 5.2 5.3 0.5 11.6 4th
5th 0.3 6.1 10.9 2.2 0.0 19.5 5th
6th 0.2 5.0 12.5 4.0 0.2 21.8 6th
7th 0.2 3.5 11.9 4.8 0.3 20.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 6.9 3.6 0.2 13.1 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 1.7 0.2 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.5 4.9 12.3 20.9 24.1 21.1 11.8 3.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-4 13.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 63.6% 63.6% 16.0 0.1 0.0
12-4 0.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
11-5 3.5% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.4 3.1
10-6 11.8% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 1.0 10.9
9-7 21.1% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 1.0 20.1
8-8 24.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 1.0 23.1
7-9 20.9% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.7 20.3
6-10 12.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 12.0
5-11 4.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 4.8
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 16.0 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%