Le Moyne
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 #284
Expected Predictive Rating -6.0 #257
Pace 70.9 #128
Improvement +1.0 #139

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #258 C C- D B- C+
Defense #290 C D+ D+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.15 #179 +0.1 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #265 0.68 #302 -2.3 #292
Three Pointers 45% #107 1.00 #209 +1.5 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #192 -0.7 #194
Freethrows 0.34 #86 73% #179 0.24 #92
Second Chance 27.0% #276 1.05 #159 0.28 #251
Turnovers 18.7% #319
Total Offense -3.1 #258

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #182 1.09 #96 +1.1 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #265 0.57 #4 +2.7 #13
Three Pointers 43% #106 1.14 #330 -3.8 #322
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #180 +0.0 #179
Freethrows 0.31 #231 74% #285 0.23 #251
Second Chance 32.4% #267 1.11 #280 0.36 #286
Turnovers 14.7% #288
Total Defense -3.9 #290

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #111 0.8% #235
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.3% #208 -0.8% #169
Possession Length 16.6 #103 16.7 #83
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #193 0.20 #274
Improvement -3.2 #339 +4.2 #11

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 80.8% 88.4% 59.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.0%
Conference Champion 21.7% 26.6% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 73.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 415 - 716 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 82 @Xavier L 69 - 74 7% -4  0 - 1 +5 +2 A+ F F +3 C- A A-
 Sun, Nov 9 146 @Bowling Green L 60 - 83 16% -6  0 - 2 -19 -11 D+ C- F -8 C- A+ F
 Thu, Nov 13 170 @Massachusetts L 80 - 94 19% -11  0 - 3 -12 +2 C- C- B+ -13 F F+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 349 Niagara W 74 - 68 79% +4  1 - 3 -9 -2 C+ F F -7 D- C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 272 Fairfield L 83 - 97 59% -12  1 - 4 -23 +3 D A+ F -26 F F+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 315 @Lafayette W 76 - 63 48% +1  2 - 4 +7 +2 D+ A+ F+ +5 B C+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 199 Monmouth W 83 - 79 32% +1  3 - 4 +2 +13 A- C+ D -11 A- F F
 Sun, Nov 30 297 Ball St. L 85 - 96 53% -0  3 - 5 -19 +12 A F+ B -31 D+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 362 @Binghamton W 78 - 63 72% +10  4 - 5 +2 +3 B- D+ D- -1 B+ D+ D
 Tue, Dec 16 33 @Texas L 53 - 95 2% -18  4 - 6 -25 -18 F C- D -4 C+ F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 20 142 @St. Bonaventure L 81 - 92 15% -1  4 - 7 -7 +10 C- A- C -18 D- D- D-
 Sun, Dec 28 131 @Boston College L 64 - 72 14% -2  4 - 8 -3 -5 C D F +2 D+ A C
 Fri, Jan 2 353 @St. Francis (PA) W 84 - 58 64% +9  5 - 8 1 - 0 +15 +10 A B+ F+ +6 A- A- D-
 Sun, Jan 4 299 @Mercyhurst L 60 - 74 42% -8  5 - 9 1 - 1 -19 -7 F C+ C -13 C- F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 339 New Haven W 73 - 47 76% +16  6 - 9 2 - 1 +11 +6 B C B+ +9 B+ B B-
 Sat, Jan 10 293 Central Connecticut St. L 59 - 69 63% -6  6 - 10 2 - 2 -20 -21 F D+ F +1 A- C C+
 Sat, Jan 17 358 @Chicago St. W 72 - 57 68% -0  7 - 10 3 - 2 +3 -5 D C C- +8 D+ A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 19 211 LIU Brooklyn W 83 - 77 46% +4  8 - 10 4 - 2 -0 +7 A+ F D+ -7 B+ F D-
 Fri, Jan 23 329 Wagner W 69 - 67 73% -2  9 - 10 5 - 2 -11 -1 F A C -10 F B B-
 Mon, Jan 26 344 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 87 - 74 57% +13  10 - 10 6 - 2 +4 +14 A+ F+ D -9 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 211 @LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 83 25% -11  10 - 11 6 - 3 -22 -16 F F F+ -5 D B C
 Sat, Jan 31 337 Stonehill W 72 - 65 73%
 Thu, Feb 5 329 @Wagner W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 353 St. Francis (PA) W 81 - 71 82%
 Thu, Feb 12 299 Mercyhurst W 71 - 67 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 358 Chicago St. W 80 - 69 85%
 Thu, Feb 19 293 @Central Connecticut St. L 72 - 75 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 337 @Stonehill W 69 - 68 54%
 Thu, Feb 26 344 Fairleigh Dickinson W 78 - 70 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 339 @New Haven W 69 - 67 54%
Totals 16 - 14 12 - 6 -7 -3 C C- D -4 C D+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.6 8.5 7.5 1.8 21.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 8.4 18.0 12.5 3.7 0.2 43.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.4 9.6 4.4 0.4 18.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.6 1.9 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.4 2.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.1 12.3 20.3 26.0 21.4 11.2 2.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 92.1% 1.8    1.4 0.4
14-2 67.1% 7.5    4.1 3.4 0.1
13-3 39.8% 8.5    2.7 4.9 0.9 0.0
12-4 13.7% 3.6    0.5 1.4 1.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 21.7% 21.7 8.7 10.1 2.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 2.0% 2.0
14-2 11.2% 11.2
13-3 21.4% 21.4
12-4 26.0% 26.0
11-5 20.3% 20.3
10-6 12.3% 12.3
9-7 5.1% 5.1
8-8 1.5% 1.5
7-9 0.2% 0.2
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0%