Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.7 #343
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 #312
Pace 62.5 #339
Improvement +0.8 #149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #355 F+ D+ D D+ D+
Defense #269 D+ C D C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 0.81 #365 -7.9 #360
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #103 0.76 #166 +1.4 #100
Three Pointers 40% #199 0.95 #266 -1.9 #248
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #360 -8.3 #360
Freethrows 0.28 #254 69% #280 0.19 #268
Second Chance 26.9% #281 0.99 #247 0.27 #284
Turnovers 18.7% #316
Total Offense -8.8 #355

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #271 1.28 #320 -0.3 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #268 0.83 #296 +0.4 #160
Three Pointers 47% #37 1.04 #220 -3.5 #318
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #289 -3.5 #290
Freethrows 0.28 #124 72% #185 0.20 #131
Second Chance 31.3% #212 1.02 #141 0.32 #184
Turnovers 14.0% #320
Total Defense -3.0 #269

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #276 0.3% #186
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.0% #359 6.5% #302
Possession Length 19.5 #346 17.5 #207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #264 0.19 #251
Improvement -1.5 #262 +2.3 #62

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.3% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.1% 6.4% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.4% 3.8% 18.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 19.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 410 - 1010 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 84 @Dayton L 48 - 88 3% -21  0 - 1 -30 -13 F C F -22 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 142 @St. Bonaventure L 70 - 89 8% -7  0 - 2 -15 +4 A- F+ C- -21 C- F D-
 Wed, Nov 12 299 Mercyhurst W 58 - 55 47% +3  1 - 2 -8 -10 C+ F F +2 C B+ B+
 Mon, Nov 17 100 @High Point L 50 - 93 4% -25  1 - 3 -35 -20 F C F -18 F D- D-
 Fri, Nov 21 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 60 - 57 57% +3  2 - 3 -11 -5 C+ C+ D -5 C D C-
 Sun, Nov 23 362 Binghamton W 75 - 66 76% +3  3 - 3 -10 +3 D A+ D+ -12 C F+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 187 Buffalo L 53 - 71 26% -8  3 - 4 -23 -21 F D+ D -4 C+ C C-
 Fri, Dec 5 230 @St. Peter's L 57 - 69 15% -6  3 - 5 0 - 1 -13 -9 F B- C -5 B+ F+ D+
 Sun, Dec 7 172 @Siena L 52 - 74 10% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -20 -15 F D F -7 D A F
 Sat, Dec 13 336 @Maine W 70 - 43 36% +16  4 - 6 +19 +4 B- C F +17 A+ D- A-
 Tue, Dec 16 109 @Rhode Island L 45 - 62 5% -3  4 - 7 -10 -18 F F F +6 B+ A C+
 Mon, Dec 22 121 @Duquesne L 59 - 103 6% -22  4 - 8 -38 -14 D D+ F -23 F D+ F+
 Fri, Jan 2 272 Fairfield W 85 - 81 40% +4  5 - 8 1 - 2 -5 +10 C B+ A+ -15 C- D D-
 Sun, Jan 4 277 Sacred Heart W 82 - 78 42% -4  6 - 8 2 - 2 -6 +4 F+ B D+ -10 D- C D+
 Fri, Jan 9 326 @Manhattan W 70 - 64 33% -1  7 - 8 3 - 2 -1 -5 F F+ B +4 C- A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 11 229 @Iona L 48 - 74 15% -8  7 - 9 3 - 3 -27 -16 F C A+ -14 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 349 Niagara L 54 - 59 64% -3  7 - 10 3 - 4 -20 -14 F F+ F -7 D A- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 291 Mount St. Mary's L 68 - 78 44% +3  7 - 11 3 - 5 -20 -5 C+ F D+ -16 F B B
 Thu, Jan 22 277 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 69 22% +2  7 - 12 3 - 6 -7 -10 D+ F D+ +3 D+ A- D
 Sat, Jan 24 272 @Fairfield L 55 - 61 21% -7  7 - 13 3 - 7 -9 -13 F C F +3 D+ B- A-
 Fri, Jan 30 159 Marist L 57 - 66 20%
 Sun, Feb 1 172 Siena L 61 - 69 22%
 Tue, Feb 3 349 @Niagara L 61 - 63 41%
 Thu, Feb 5 177 @Quinnipiac L 63 - 76 11%
 Fri, Feb 13 229 Iona L 66 - 71 33%
 Sun, Feb 15 326 Manhattan W 71 - 69 56%
 Fri, Feb 20 352 @Rider L 63 - 65 45%
 Sun, Feb 22 291 @Mount St. Mary's L 62 - 69 24%
 Fri, Feb 27 209 Merrimack L 60 - 66 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 177 Quinnipiac L 66 - 73 24%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 14 -12 -9 F+ D+ D -3 D+ C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.3 0.3 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.3 1.2 0.1 11.0 9th
10th 0.8 6.1 9.2 3.1 0.2 19.2 10th
11th 0.0 2.5 11.3 15.8 5.2 0.4 35.3 11th
12th 1.4 7.5 8.5 2.7 0.2 20.3 12th
13th 2.5 3.0 0.7 0.0 6.3 13th
Total 4.0 13.0 21.3 25.2 18.6 11.1 4.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.4% 0.4
10-10 1.6% 1.6
9-11 4.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.7
8-12 11.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.0
7-13 18.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 18.5
6-14 25.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.2
5-15 21.3% 21.3
4-16 13.0% 13.0
3-17 4.0% 4.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%