Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.7 #342
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 #310
Pace 62.5 #339
Improvement +0.8 #147

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #355 F+ D+ D D+ D+
Defense #268 D+ C D C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #259 0.81 #365 -7.9 #361
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #100 0.76 #169 +1.4 #103
Three Pointers 40% #199 0.95 #264 -1.9 #248
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #360 -8.4 #360
Freethrows 0.28 #254 69% #279 0.19 #270
Second Chance 26.9% #280 0.99 #248 0.27 #283
Turnovers 18.6% #316
Total Offense -8.7 #355

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #270 1.28 #320 -0.3 #187
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #271 0.83 #296 +0.4 #162
Three Pointers 47% #38 1.04 #222 -3.5 #317
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #288 -3.5 #287
Freethrows 0.28 #126 72% #189 0.20 #130
Second Chance 31.3% #215 1.02 #138 0.32 #187
Turnovers 14.0% #321
Total Defense -3.0 #268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #282 0.3% #189
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.1% #360 6.5% #301
Possession Length 19.5 #345 17.5 #204
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #264 0.19 #250
Improvement -1.6 #262 +2.4 #55

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.1% 6.1% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.6% 5.9% 18.1%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 20.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 410 - 1010 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 85 @Dayton L 48 - 88 3% -21  0 - 1 -30 -13 F C F -22 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 141 @St. Bonaventure L 70 - 89 8% -7  0 - 2 -15 +4 B+ F+ C- -20 C- F D-
 Wed, Nov 12 308 Mercyhurst W 58 - 55 49% +3  1 - 2 -9 -10 C F F+ +2 C B B
 Mon, Nov 17 96 @High Point L 50 - 93 4% -25  1 - 3 -34 -19 F C+ F -18 F D- F+
 Fri, Nov 21 332 Maryland Eastern Shore W 60 - 57 57% +3  2 - 3 -11 -5 C+ C+ D -5 C D C-
 Sun, Nov 23 362 Binghamton W 75 - 66 76% +3  3 - 3 -10 +3 D A+ C- -12 C F+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 185 Buffalo L 53 - 71 25% -8  3 - 4 -23 -21 F D+ D -4 C+ C C-
 Fri, Dec 5 226 @St. Peter's L 57 - 69 15% -6  3 - 5 0 - 1 -13 -9 F B- C -5 B+ F+ D+
 Sun, Dec 7 173 @Siena L 52 - 74 10% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -20 -15 F D F -7 D A F
 Sat, Dec 13 336 @Maine W 70 - 43 36% +16  4 - 6 +19 +5 B- C F +17 A+ D- A-
 Tue, Dec 16 109 @Rhode Island L 45 - 62 5% -3  4 - 7 -10 -18 F F F +6 B+ A C+
 Mon, Dec 22 122 @Duquesne L 59 - 103 6% -22  4 - 8 -39 -14 D D+ F -23 F D+ F+
 Fri, Jan 2 272 Fairfield W 85 - 81 40% +4  5 - 8 1 - 2 -5 +10 C B+ A+ -15 C- D D-
 Sun, Jan 4 277 Sacred Heart W 82 - 78 42% -4  6 - 8 2 - 2 -6 +4 F+ B D+ -10 D- C D+
 Fri, Jan 9 326 @Manhattan W 70 - 64 33% -1  7 - 8 3 - 2 -1 -5 F F+ B +4 C- A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 11 225 @Iona L 48 - 74 15% -8  7 - 9 3 - 3 -27 -16 F C A+ -14 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 349 Niagara L 54 - 59 64% -3  7 - 10 3 - 4 -20 -14 F F+ F -7 D A- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 286 Mount St. Mary's L 68 - 78 44% +3  7 - 11 3 - 5 -20 -5 C+ F D+ -16 F B B
 Thu, Jan 22 277 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 69 22% +2  7 - 12 3 - 6 -7 -10 D+ F D+ +3 D A- D
 Sat, Jan 24 272 @Fairfield L 55 - 61 21% -7  7 - 13 3 - 7 -9 -13 F C F +3 D+ B- A-
 Fri, Jan 30 159 Marist L 57 - 66 21%
 Sun, Feb 1 173 Siena L 61 - 69 23%
 Tue, Feb 3 349 @Niagara L 61 - 63 41%
 Thu, Feb 5 176 @Quinnipiac L 63 - 76 11%
 Fri, Feb 13 225 Iona L 66 - 71 32%
 Sun, Feb 15 326 Manhattan W 71 - 69 55%
 Fri, Feb 20 352 @Rider L 63 - 65 45%
 Sun, Feb 22 286 @Mount St. Mary's L 62 - 69 24%
 Fri, Feb 27 206 Merrimack L 61 - 67 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 176 Quinnipiac L 66 - 73 25%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 14 -12 -9 F+ D+ D -3 D+ C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.8 5.2 1.3 0.1 10.8 9th
10th 0.9 6.3 9.4 2.9 0.1 0.0 19.7 10th
11th 0.1 2.1 11.7 15.4 5.4 0.5 0.0 35.0 11th
12th 1.3 7.5 8.7 2.9 0.3 20.7 12th
13th 2.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.0 13th
Total 3.5 12.8 21.9 25.1 19.2 10.8 4.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
9-11 4.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.7
8-12 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
7-13 19.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 19.1
6-14 25.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 25.0
5-15 21.9% 21.9
4-16 12.8% 12.8
3-17 3.5% 3.5
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.5%