New Haven
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.9 #334
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #304
Pace 60.8 #355
Improvement +0.4 #166

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #348 D+ D- D- D- D+
Defense #275 D+ C C- C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.25 #81 -0.6 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #113 0.67 #310 +0.1 #167
Three Pointers 42% #171 0.89 #327 -2.2 #264
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #260 -2.7 #260
Freethrows 0.24 #342 71% #231 0.17 #349
Second Chance 22.9% #348 0.91 #321 0.21 #354
Turnovers 19.6% #336
Total Offense -7.7 #348

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #109 1.22 #267 -2.9 #283
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #320 0.72 #118 +2.1 #41
Three Pointers 43% #117 1.07 #256 -2.1 #281
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #279 -3.0 #280
Freethrows 0.27 #71 75% #324 0.20 #116
Second Chance 28.8% #106 1.13 #316 0.33 #220
Turnovers 15.8% #234
Total Defense -3.2 #275

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #273 1.6% #319
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.1% #249 4.2% #263
Possession Length 20.2 #364 16.6 #65
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #319 0.18 #206
Improvement +1.9 #85 -1.5 #267

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 2.1% 9.5% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 75.8% 93.7% 72.9%
Conference Champion 0.8% 4.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 14.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 410 - 911 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 7 @Connecticut L 55 - 79 0% -12  0 - 1 -0 -2 A- F B+ +1 B- C B-
 Fri, Nov 7 182 Columbia L 53 - 71 27% -16  0 - 2 -23 -19 F D F -4 F A B+
 Sat, Nov 8 115 Penn St. L 43 - 87 15% -18  0 - 3 -44 -27 F F F -22 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 314 @Umass Lowell W 73 - 67 32% -1  1 - 3 -0 -1 C C F +1 A+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 353 Delaware St. W 65 - 52 71% +7  2 - 3 -4 -7 C- D- F +4 B+ C D-
 Tue, Nov 18 52 @Seton Hall L 45 - 68 2% -14  2 - 4 -10 -11 D D- C -2 F+ A C
 Sat, Dec 6 127 @Boston College L 63 - 67 8% +3  2 - 5 +1 +5 C+ D C- -4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 324 @NJIT L 64 - 70 35% -4  2 - 6 -13 -7 F D+ B+ -6 F A D+
 Mon, Dec 22 170 @Fordham L 47 - 65 11% -5  2 - 7 -16 -18 D+ F F -0 D+ D- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 13 @Vanderbilt L 53 - 96 1% -24  2 - 8 -21 -9 D+ F C+ -13 F D C
 Fri, Jan 2 328 @Stonehill W 70 - 55 36% +5  3 - 8 1 - 0 +8 +4 B D+ C- +5 B+ D D
 Sun, Jan 4 300 @Central Connecticut St. L 61 - 72 29% -10  3 - 9 1 - 1 -16 -3 F+ A F -15 F D- D+
 Thu, Jan 8 296 @Le Moyne L 47 - 73 28% -16  3 - 10 1 - 2 -31 -21 F F F -13 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 344 Fairleigh Dickinson W 65 - 55 64% +10  4 - 10 2 - 2 -5 -7 C+ D- D +4 A A- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 330 Wagner W 80 - 74 60% +8  5 - 10 3 - 2 -8 +12 A+ F C- -19 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 356 @Chicago St. W 62 - 56 51% -3  6 - 10 4 - 2 -5 -4 D C F +0 D- A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 23 304 Mercyhurst L 57 - 61 51% +0  6 - 11 4 - 3 -15 -8 C+ F+ F -8 F+ B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 304 @Mercyhurst L 51 - 70 29% -13  6 - 12 4 - 4 -24 -15 F F A- -12 A F F
 Sat, Jan 31 358 @St. Francis (PA) W 81 - 69 52% +5  7 - 12 5 - 4 +1 +7 B F B+ -6 C D+ D-
 Thu, Feb 5 195 @LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 73 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 356 Chicago St. W 70 - 64 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 300 Central Connecticut St. W 67 - 66 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 195 LIU Brooklyn L 64 - 70 30%
 Thu, Feb 19 328 Stonehill W 62 - 60 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 344 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 65 - 67 42%
 Thu, Feb 26 330 @Wagner L 64 - 67 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 296 Le Moyne L 68 - 69 50%
Totals 11 - 16 9 - 8 -11 -8 D+ D- D- -3 D+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 3.8 1.4 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.9 3.0 0.1 11.5 3rd
4th 0.7 8.0 6.3 0.4 15.4 4th
5th 0.3 6.4 11.4 1.6 19.6 5th
6th 0.2 5.2 13.5 3.9 0.1 22.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 9.0 4.2 0.1 15.9 7th
8th 0.5 3.0 2.2 0.1 5.7 8th
9th 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 1.2 6.3 16.7 24.8 25.1 16.5 7.3 1.9 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 87.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 23.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
11-5 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.2% 0.2
12-4 1.9% 1.9
11-5 7.3% 7.3
10-6 16.5% 16.5
9-7 25.1% 25.1
8-8 24.8% 24.8
7-9 16.7% 16.7
6-10 6.3% 6.3
5-11 1.2% 1.2
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%
Lose Out 1.2%