Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.4 #329
Expected Predictive Rating -15.8 #354
Pace 63.5 #317
Improvement -5.1 #349

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #284 D+ C+ D+ D C
Defense #343 C- C- D- F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #150 0.97 #352 -3.0 #286
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #149 0.83 #80 +1.3 #105
Three Pointers 38% #239 1.03 #163 -1.0 #220
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #257 -2.7 #255
Freethrows 0.27 #283 69% #299 0.18 #305
Second Chance 32.1% #138 1.12 #88 0.36 #94
Turnovers 18.0% #286
Total Offense -4.3 #284

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #59 1.11 #110 -1.7 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #289 0.77 #197 +1.3 #90
Three Pointers 40% #220 1.13 #328 -1.7 #263
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #252 -2.1 #252
Freethrows 0.39 #357 75% #306 0.29 #359
Second Chance 31.3% #211 1.08 #243 0.34 #237
Turnovers 13.1% #342
Total Defense -6.2 #343

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #203 1.6% #318
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.1% #266 2.5% #228
Possession Length 18.6 #302 15.3 #3
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #312 0.22 #320
Improvement -2.1 #295 -2.9 #329

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 8.1% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.2% 14.2% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.9% 15.6% 31.4%
First Four7.0% 8.0% 5.1%
First Round3.2% 3.6% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 48 - 138 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 2% -12  0 - 1 -16 -0 D C D -13 C- F D+
 Fri, Nov 7 53 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 2% -3  0 - 2 +6 +4 A+ A- F +1 B- C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 193 @Fordham L 61 - 63 15% +2  0 - 3 -1 +1 D- A D -2 B C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 260 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 23% +1  0 - 4 -4 -10 F C F +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 89 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 4% -11  0 - 5 -8 +1 C+ C- F -8 D+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 326 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 38% -8  1 - 5 -5 +14 A+ B+ D+ -20 D F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 106 @Maryland L 63 - 89 6% -9  1 - 6 -19 -9 F+ F+ F -8 B- C F
 Wed, Dec 17 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 62% +6  2 - 6 +0 +7 C- A A+ -5 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 358 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 55% +4  3 - 6 1 - 0 -5 +8 D B A+ -12 C- B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 337 Stonehill L 60 - 69 64% -2  3 - 7 1 - 1 -23 -6 D- B- F -18 F+ C F
 Thu, Jan 8 353 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 73% +1  3 - 8 1 - 2 -19 -6 F C+ D -13 D- D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 299 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 52% +1  3 - 9 1 - 3 -12 -1 C C+ C- -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 339 @New Haven L 74 - 80 43% -8  3 - 10 1 - 4 -15 +11 A A- F -27 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 344 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 61 - 68 44% -4  3 - 11 1 - 5 -16 -4 F C B- -13 D- F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 284 @Le Moyne L 67 - 69 27% +2  3 - 12 1 - 6 -6 +2 B+ D+ F -8 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 293 Central Connecticut St. L 55 - 62 49% -2  3 - 13 1 - 7 -17 -15 F C C+ -4 C B- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 344 Fairleigh Dickinson W 72 - 68 67%
 Thu, Feb 5 284 Le Moyne L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 293 @Central Connecticut St. L 68 - 74 28%
 Thu, Feb 12 211 LIU Brooklyn L 70 - 74 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 337 @Stonehill L 65 - 67 43%
 Thu, Feb 19 299 @Mercyhurst L 63 - 69 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 353 @St. Francis (PA) W 73 - 72 52%
 Thu, Feb 26 339 New Haven W 67 - 63 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 358 Chicago St. W 75 - 68 77%
Totals 7 - 18 5 - 12 -10 -4 D+ C+ D+ -6 C- C- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 1.0 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 3.5 0.3 7.1 6th
7th 0.3 3.4 7.4 1.7 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.6 5.4 12.7 4.2 0.1 23.0 8th
9th 0.8 4.6 13.1 15.2 7.4 0.4 0.0 41.5 9th
10th 0.4 2.1 3.8 3.7 1.0 0.0 11.0 10th
Total 0.4 2.9 8.4 17.3 21.9 23.5 15.4 7.7 2.3 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.2% 0.2
9-7 2.3% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 0.3 2.0
8-8 7.7% 14.2% 14.2% 16.0 1.1 6.6
7-9 15.4% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 1.5 13.9
6-10 23.5% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 1.7 21.8
5-11 21.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 1.2 20.7
4-12 17.3% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.8 16.5
3-13 8.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 8.2
2-14 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.8
1-15 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-16
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 16.0 92.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%