Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#301
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#288
Pace68.7#208
Improvement-2.6#330

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#308
First Shot-6.4#340
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#101
Layup/Dunks-4.9#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#188
Freethrows-1.6#280
Improvement-0.9#258

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#257
First Shot+0.5#153
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#346
Layups/Dunks+2.1#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#129
Freethrows-3.4#341
Improvement-1.7#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 17.3% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.3 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 43.9% 50.5% 25.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 85.2% 75.9%
Conference Champion 22.1% 24.3% 15.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.0% 3.8%
First Four12.4% 12.9% 10.8%
First Round9.4% 10.5% 6.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 74.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 413 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74-103 3%     0 - 1 -15.1 +3.3 -16.2
  Fri, Nov 7 56 @Seton Hall L 61-68 4%     0 - 2 +5.5 +1.7 +3.2
  Tue, Nov 11 196 @Fordham L 61-63 21%     0 - 3 -1.4 -0.5 -1.3
  Sun, Nov 16 285 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70-71 OT 35%     0 - 4 -4.8 -11.1 +6.4
  Sat, Nov 22 101 @Georgetown L 75-92 8%     0 - 5 -9.1 +0.8 -8.9
  Wed, Nov 26 320 @Manhattan W 103-101 OT 45%     1 - 5 -4.4 +13.7 -18.3
  Tue, Dec 2 94 @Maryland L 63-89 7%     1 - 6 -17.5 -9.0 -7.1
  Wed, Dec 17 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-62 74%    
  Fri, Jan 2 338 @Chicago St. W 74-73 51%    
  Sun, Jan 4 341 Stonehill W 71-65 73%    
  Thu, Jan 8 363 St. Francis (PA) W 77-66 84%    
  Sat, Jan 10 329 Mercyhurst W 70-65 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 337 @New Haven W 67-66 50%    
  Mon, Jan 19 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 76-72 65%    
  Fri, Jan 23 307 @Le Moyne L 75-77 41%    
  Sun, Jan 25 211 @LIU Brooklyn L 69-77 25%    
  Thu, Jan 29 242 Central Connecticut St. L 68-69 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 79-69 82%    
  Thu, Feb 5 307 Le Moyne W 78-74 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 242 @Central Connecticut St. L 65-71 29%    
  Thu, Feb 12 211 LIU Brooklyn L 72-74 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 341 @Stonehill W 69-68 52%    
  Thu, Feb 19 329 @Mercyhurst L 67-68 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 363 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-69 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 337 New Haven W 70-64 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 338 Chicago St. W 77-71 71%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.7 5.9 5.5 3.5 1.7 21.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 5.6 7.1 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.1 5.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 5.3 4.8 1.0 0.1 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.1 3.9 0.7 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.7 0.9 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.8 6.9 9.4 11.9 13.6 13.2 12.8 9.7 6.8 3.7 1.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 98.7% 1.7    1.7 0.1
15-1 94.3% 3.5    3.2 0.3 0.0
14-2 81.9% 5.5    4.2 1.3 0.1
13-3 60.7% 5.9    3.2 2.3 0.4 0.0
12-4 28.9% 3.7    1.2 1.7 0.7 0.1
11-5 7.1% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 21.4% 21.4 13.5 6.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.8% 43.1% 43.1% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.0
15-1 3.7% 39.9% 39.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3
14-2 6.8% 34.0% 34.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.5
13-3 9.7% 26.6% 26.6% 16.0 0.1 2.5 7.1
12-4 12.8% 22.7% 22.7% 16.0 0.0 2.9 9.9
11-5 13.2% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 0.0 2.1 11.1
10-6 13.6% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 1.5 12.0
9-7 11.9% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.9 11.0
8-8 9.4% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.5 8.9
7-9 6.9% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.3 6.6
6-10 4.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 4.7
5-11 2.7% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 2.6
4-12 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-13 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.8 14.8 84.3 0.0%