Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.3 #302
Expected Predictive Rating -10.6 #328
Pace 67.4 #226
Improvement +3.2 #47

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #281 D+ C- C- D+ D+
Defense #297 C- F C- D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.11 #231 -0.6 #199
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #56 0.81 #106 +3.3 #41
Three Pointers 34% #322 0.86 #340 -6.4 #345
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #290 -3.7 #288
Freethrows 0.27 #280 71% #227 0.19 #282
Second Chance 27.7% #261 1.05 #166 0.29 #241
Turnovers 17.3% #244
Total Offense -4.0 #281

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #60 1.20 #244 -3.6 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #277 0.71 #99 +1.7 #68
Three Pointers 40% #228 1.04 #217 +0.4 #163
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #228 -1.6 #227
Freethrows 0.36 #324 69% #51 0.25 #297
Second Chance 35.0% #328 1.30 #361 0.45 #361
Turnovers 15.5% #231
Total Defense -4.2 #297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #292 1.4% #304
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #277 1.7% #211
Possession Length 18.6 #303 16.9 #107
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #169 0.21 #293
Improvement +0.6 #151 +2.7 #44

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 1.4% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 46.0% 27.3% 53.6%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Home) - 28.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 62 - 13
Quad 45 - 97 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 200 Appalachian St. W 82 - 66 40% +12  1 - 0 +10 +14 A+ C F+ -3 A+ F+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 127 @Bradley L 54 - 85 11% -14  1 - 1 -26 -15 F D D -11 F C C+
 Thu, Nov 13 192 South Alabama L 64 - 66 27% -3  1 - 2 -4 +0 F+ B- C- -4 B+ F C
 Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82 - 59 86% +13  2 - 2 +3 -1 F+ B+ C +4 A+ F F+
 Thu, Nov 20 179 Northern Kentucky L 66 - 90 35% -13  2 - 3 -28 -8 D A F -21 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 22 93 @Marquette L 71 - 85 7% -5  2 - 4 -5 +2 D+ F+ A -7 F+ C C
 Tue, Dec 2 280 @Loyola Chicago L 72 - 83 34% -2  2 - 5 -15 +0 C+ C- D- -16 C+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 26 @Saint Louis L 65 - 107 2% -23  2 - 6 -24 +3 B C F+ -27 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 13 238 @Stony Brook L 55 - 78 25% -16  2 - 7 -24 -14 F D B+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 310 @Northern Illinois L 73 - 74 40% +10  2 - 8 0 - 1 -7 +3 D A+ D -10 C+ F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 39 @Wisconsin L 61 - 88 2% -15  2 - 9 -11 -3 D D- A- -9 F A- C+
 Tue, Dec 30 214 Ohio L 64 - 80 42% -5  2 - 10 0 - 2 -22 -17 F+ F F+ -3 B C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 164 Toledo L 75 - 78 32% +5  2 - 11 0 - 3 -6 -2 D+ D A -4 A- C+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 62 @Akron L 69 - 82 4% -10  2 - 12 0 - 4 -1 -2 C F F +2 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 143 Kent St. W 87 - 85 27% +1  3 - 12 1 - 4 +0 +9 D- A+ A+ -9 A F B-
 Tue, Jan 13 91 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 100 6% -17  3 - 13 1 - 5 -30 -10 D F F -20 F F D+
 Tue, Jan 20 295 Ball St. L 67 - 68 59% -5  3 - 14 1 - 6 -12 +2 B D+ D -14 F+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 273 @Western Michigan L 65 - 77 31% -3  3 - 15 1 - 7 -15 -9 F C D- -6 B- D+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 242 Eastern Michigan W 100 - 65 47% +9  4 - 15 2 - 7 +28 +18 A+ C- A- +7 C C- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 145 Bowling Green L 71 - 77 29%
 Tue, Feb 3 171 @Massachusetts L 71 - 81 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 314 @Louisiana L 65 - 67 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 310 Northern Illinois W 74 - 71 63%
 Tue, Feb 17 242 @Eastern Michigan L 67 - 74 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 273 Western Michigan W 76 - 75 54%
 Tue, Feb 24 143 @Kent St. L 73 - 85 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 185 @Buffalo L 71 - 80 20%
 Tue, Mar 3 62 Akron L 74 - 88 10%
 Fri, Mar 6 295 @Ball St. L 67 - 71 37%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 13 -8 -4 D+ C- C- -4 C- F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.1 1.9 7th
8th 0.9 3.0 0.6 4.4 8th
9th 1.1 6.5 3.0 0.1 10.7 9th
10th 0.3 7.1 7.0 0.5 14.9 10th
11th 0.0 5.1 11.9 2.0 0.0 19.0 11th
12th 2.9 13.0 5.5 0.2 21.6 12th
13th 4.4 13.7 7.7 0.6 26.4 13th
Total 4.4 16.5 26.2 26.1 16.6 7.3 2.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.4% 0.4
8-10 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
7-11 7.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.3
6-12 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.6
5-13 26.1% 26.1
4-14 26.2% 26.2
3-15 16.5% 16.5
2-16 4.4% 4.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%