Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#323
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#315
Pace67.4#241
Improvement-4.6#357

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#285
First Shot-6.2#335
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#65
Layup/Dunks+0.9#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#350
Freethrows-2.8#322
Improvement-1.9#316

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#338
First Shot-0.4#188
After Offensive Rebounds-5.0#362
Layups/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#196
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement-2.7#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 6.2% 11.3% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.4% 18.6% 48.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 81 - 14
Quad 46 - 77 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 231 Appalachian St. W 82-66 40%     1 - 0 +9.0 +13.5 -3.3
  Sat, Nov 8 116 @Bradley L 54-85 8%     1 - 1 -24.7 -13.3 -12.1
  Thu, Nov 13 179 South Alabama L 64-66 21%     1 - 2 -3.3 -0.4 -3.2
  Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82-59 80%     2 - 2 +4.5 +0.2 +4.0
  Thu, Nov 20 193 Northern Kentucky L 66-90 33%     2 - 3 -29.1 -7.7 -22.0
  Sat, Nov 22 88 @Marquette L 71-85 5%     2 - 4 -5.1 +2.4 -7.3
  Tue, Dec 2 287 @Loyola Chicago L 72-83 29%     2 - 5 -14.9 -0.1 -15.3
  Sun, Dec 7 43 @Saint Louis L 65-107 2%     2 - 6 -27.3 +0.1 -27.9
  Sat, Dec 13 197 @Stony Brook L 55-78 17%     2 - 7 -22.4 -12.7 -11.9
  Sat, Dec 20 327 @Northern Illinois L 74-77 40%    
  Mon, Dec 22 40 @Wisconsin L 64-89 1%    
  Tue, Dec 30 175 Ohio L 74-80 30%    
  Sat, Jan 3 167 Toledo L 74-80 29%    
  Tue, Jan 6 65 @Akron L 72-93 3%    
  Sat, Jan 10 131 Kent St. L 77-85 22%    
  Tue, Jan 13 106 @Miami (OH) L 68-85 6%    
  Tue, Jan 20 306 Ball St. W 69-68 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 253 @Western Michigan L 70-78 24%    
  Tue, Jan 27 226 Eastern Michigan L 69-72 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 124 Bowling Green L 68-77 21%    
  Tue, Feb 3 152 @Massachusetts L 70-83 11%    
  Sat, Feb 14 327 Northern Illinois W 77-74 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 226 @Eastern Michigan L 66-75 21%    
  Sat, Feb 21 253 Western Michigan L 73-75 44%    
  Tue, Feb 24 131 @Kent St. L 74-88 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 216 @Buffalo L 70-79 20%    
  Tue, Mar 3 65 Akron L 75-90 9%    
  Fri, Mar 6 306 @Ball St. L 66-71 34%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.1 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.4 0.3 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.1 0.9 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.7 1.8 0.1 12.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 5.2 7.5 2.7 0.2 0.0 16.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.7 6.8 8.4 3.5 0.3 0.0 20.8 12th
13th 1.2 4.9 7.8 7.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 24.4 13th
Total 1.2 4.9 9.4 15.1 17.1 16.2 13.4 10.0 6.3 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 14.3% 0.0    0.0
13-5 21.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.3% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 3.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
8-10 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
7-11 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
6-12 13.4% 13.4
5-13 16.2% 16.2
4-14 17.1% 17.1
3-15 15.1% 15.1
2-16 9.4% 9.4
1-17 4.9% 4.9
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%