Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.2 #20
Expected Predictive Rating +17.2 #21
Pace 65.0 #284
Improvement -1.2 #242

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #29 B A+ C- B- B-
Defense #15 A- A- C+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #43 1.24 #91 +5.4 #25
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #237 0.81 #101 -0.6 #209
Three Pointers 38% #248 1.13 #47 +0.5 #156
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #52 +5.2 #52
Freethrows 0.36 #27 69% #276 0.25 #73
Second Chance 44.4% #1 1.10 #96 0.49 #4
Turnovers 17.6% #258
Total Offense +8.5 #29

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.03 #44 +4.4 #50
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #159 0.67 #51 +0.8 #136
Three Pointers 44% #84 0.87 #26 +1.6 #121
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #20 +6.8 #21
Freethrows 0.29 #159 66% #10 0.19 #85
Second Chance 26.0% #40 0.85 #9 0.22 #11
Turnovers 17.8% #85
Total Defense +8.7 #15

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #76 -0.6% #113
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.5% #59 -12.6% #12
Possession Length 16.2 #74 19.3 #361
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #42 0.12 #29
Improvement +0.7 #144 -1.8 #289

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.5% 6.1% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 33.8% 40.5% 20.2%
Top 6 Seed 77.5% 84.5% 63.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.6% 97.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.9% 99.6% 97.8%
Average Seed 5.3 4.9 6.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 97.2% 87.5%
Conference Champion 8.5% 11.3% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.0% 0.4% 2.1%
First Round98.6% 99.4% 97.0%
Second Round79.6% 82.9% 72.8%
Sweet Sixteen39.1% 42.9% 31.4%
Elite Eight16.0% 17.8% 12.2%
Final Four6.7% 7.5% 5.0%
Championship Game2.5% 2.8% 2.0%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.7%

Next Game: Auburn (Home) - 67.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 25 - 214 - 11
Quad 32 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 150 Mercer W 76 - 61 96% +11  1 - 0 +12 -0 D+ A+ F +13 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 179 Northern Kentucky W 95 - 56 97% +18  2 - 0 +35 +20 A- A+ B- +15 A+ C+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 348 North Florida W 99 - 66 99% +15  3 - 0 +18 +5 C- A+ F +10 A+ C A-
 Mon, Nov 17 230 Rice W 91 - 66 98% +12  4 - 0 +18 +15 B- A+ C +4 B A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 20 229 Tennessee St. W 89 - 60 98% +22  5 - 0 +22 +2 D A+ F +17 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 119 Rutgers W 85 - 60 91% +19  6 - 0 +28 +17 A- A+ D- +12 A A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 4 Houston W 76 - 73 34% -2  7 - 0 +24 +26 B A+ A+ -1 D+ A B
 Wed, Nov 26 17 Kansas L 76 - 81 47% +3  7 - 1 +13 +14 A- B+ A -1 A A C
 Tue, Dec 2 76 @Syracuse L 60 - 62 74% -2  7 - 2 +9 -7 D C+ F +15 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 6 Illinois L 62 - 75 36% -4  7 - 3 +8 +5 D- A+ F +1 B- B+ F+
 Tue, Dec 16 19 Louisville W 83 - 62 61% +11  8 - 3 +35 +17 A+ A- B- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 94 - 52 100% +26  9 - 3 +21 +11 B+ B- B- +10 B B+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 359 South Carolina St. W 105 - 54 100% +23  10 - 3 +33 +26 A+ A+ C+ +8 A- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 21 @Arkansas L 75 - 86 39% -1  10 - 4 0 - 1 +9 +4 B C+ C- +5 A+ B A+
 Tue, Jan 6 33 Texas W 85 - 71 72% +11  11 - 4 1 - 1 +25 +17 A+ A+ F +9 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 5 @Florida L 67 - 91 26% -10  11 - 5 1 - 2 +0 +2 B C+ F -1 C- A- D+
 Tue, Jan 13 30 Texas A&M W 87 - 82 2OT 71% -3  12 - 5 2 - 2 +17 +6 F A+ D +10 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 27 Kentucky L 78 - 80 69% +7  12 - 6 2 - 3 +10 +20 A+ C- D -10 C+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 16 @Alabama W 79 - 73 36% -1  13 - 6 3 - 3 +27 +17 A+ C C +11 A+ B C-
 Wed, Jan 28 29 @Georgia W 86 - 85 OT 48% -1  14 - 6 4 - 3 +19 +22 B+ A+ B- -3 D- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 25 Auburn W 78 - 73 67%
 Tue, Feb 3 64 Mississippi W 75 - 64 86%
 Sat, Feb 7 27 @Kentucky L 72 - 73 46%
 Wed, Feb 11 73 @Mississippi St. W 75 - 69 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 47 LSU W 78 - 69 80%
 Wed, Feb 18 54 Oklahoma W 79 - 69 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 12 @Vanderbilt L 73 - 78 33%
 Tue, Feb 24 56 @Missouri W 75 - 71 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 16 Alabama W 83 - 81 59%
 Tue, Mar 3 90 @South Carolina W 74 - 66 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 12 Vanderbilt W 76 - 75 54%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 7 +17 +9 B A+ C- +9 A- A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.9 4.1 1.3 8.5 1st
2nd 0.1 3.5 7.3 2.3 0.2 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 8.8 4.1 0.2 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.2 6.0 7.3 0.7 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 9.2 2.1 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.5 6.0 4.8 0.2 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 6.1 0.9 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.9 2.0 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.3 4.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.5 0.6 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.3 9.5 16.7 22.5 22.2 15.1 6.6 1.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 86.2% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 62.0% 4.1    1.4 1.9 0.7 0.1
13-5 19.1% 2.9    0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 2.5 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.5% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 2.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.6% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 3.0 0.4 1.5 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.1% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 3.8 0.1 1.1 4.3 5.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 22.2% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 4.6 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.6 8.3 3.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 22.5% 100.0% 6.8% 93.2% 5.4 0.1 0.8 3.4 7.5 7.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 16.7% 99.6% 4.8% 94.8% 6.2 0.1 0.7 3.5 5.9 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.6%
9-9 9.5% 99.4% 3.2% 96.3% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.4 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
8-10 4.3% 94.0% 1.9% 92.2% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.3 93.9%
7-11 1.4% 74.6% 1.5% 73.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 74.3%
6-12 0.3% 40.0% 40.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 40.0%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.0% 9.5% 89.5% 5.3 1.0 98.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.5 54.9 42.3 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 2.2 28.8 36.5 25.0 9.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 2.4 5.3 56.0 32.0 5.3 1.3