East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#123
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#162
Pace68.9#200
Improvement+2.1#58

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#125
First Shot+3.5#83
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#296
Layup/Dunks+5.7#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#238
Freethrows-0.9#242
Improvement+2.4#35

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#127
First Shot-1.1#214
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#34
Layups/Dunks+3.7#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#329
Freethrows-1.6#281
Improvement-0.3#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.4% 44.5% 35.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 12.8 13.7
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.8% 98.0%
Conference Champion 52.3% 63.2% 51.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round36.3% 44.5% 35.6%
Second Round3.1% 5.5% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 418 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 263 @Presbyterian L 64-68 70%     0 - 1 -6.5 -3.0 -3.8
  Wed, Nov 12 193 Northern Kentucky W 75-63 78%     1 - 1 +6.9 -2.6 +9.1
  Sat, Nov 15 195 @North Alabama W 78-74 59%     2 - 1 +4.6 +7.7 -3.0
  Fri, Nov 21 322 Morehead St. W 77-62 92%     3 - 1 +2.4 +4.1 -0.5
  Sun, Nov 23 358 Louisiana Monroe W 97-55 96%     4 - 1 +24.7 +16.7 +8.5
  Sat, Nov 29 283 Central Arkansas W 80-57 87%     5 - 1 +13.5 +2.7 +10.2
  Tue, Dec 2 73 @Dayton L 71-88 22%     5 - 2 -6.1 +0.7 -6.0
  Fri, Dec 5 179 South Alabama W 91-65 76%     6 - 2 +21.7 +18.7 +3.6
  Fri, Dec 12 192 @Austin Peay L 75-76 58%     6 - 3 -0.1 +5.5 -5.6
  Tue, Dec 16 23 @North Carolina L 68-83 7%    
  Sat, Dec 20 254 Jacksonville St. W 74-63 85%    
  Wed, Dec 31 361 @The Citadel W 79-64 92%    
  Sat, Jan 3 168 Mercer W 81-74 73%    
  Wed, Jan 7 331 VMI W 82-66 94%    
  Sat, Jan 10 281 UNC Greensboro W 80-68 87%    
  Wed, Jan 14 296 @Western Carolina W 79-72 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 237 @Samford W 77-73 65%    
  Wed, Jan 21 225 @Chattanooga W 76-72 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 361 The Citadel W 82-61 97%    
  Thu, Jan 29 296 Western Carolina W 82-69 88%    
  Sat, Jan 31 246 @Wofford W 76-71 67%    
  Wed, Feb 4 151 Furman W 75-70 69%    
  Sat, Feb 7 331 @VMI W 79-69 82%    
  Wed, Feb 11 225 Chattanooga W 79-69 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 237 Samford W 80-70 82%    
  Wed, Feb 18 151 @Furman L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 281 @UNC Greensboro W 77-71 72%    
  Wed, Feb 25 246 Wofford W 79-68 83%    
  Sat, Feb 28 168 @Mercer W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.3 10.8 14.7 12.5 6.9 2.1 52.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 5.0 8.4 6.3 2.3 0.4 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.8 1.0 0.1 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.8 7.7 11.5 15.1 17.5 17.0 12.9 6.9 2.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-1 100.0% 6.9    6.9 0.1
16-2 97.0% 12.5    11.6 0.9 0.0
15-3 86.6% 14.7    11.4 3.2 0.1
14-4 62.0% 10.8    6.2 4.0 0.7 0.0
13-5 28.5% 4.3    1.4 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.3% 52.3 39.6 10.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.1% 63.1% 63.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.8
17-1 6.9% 57.3% 57.3% 12.6 0.2 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.0
16-2 12.9% 50.9% 50.9% 13.1 0.0 1.3 3.4 1.7 0.1 6.3
15-3 17.0% 42.9% 42.9% 13.5 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.7
14-4 17.5% 39.1% 39.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.2 0.0 10.6
13-5 15.1% 30.2% 30.2% 14.1 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.3 0.1 10.6
12-6 11.5% 25.4% 25.4% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.1 8.6
11-7 7.7% 20.5% 20.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 6.1
10-8 4.8% 15.9% 15.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 4.0
9-9 2.6% 15.0% 15.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.2
8-10 1.2% 10.8% 10.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
7-11 0.5% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.2% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.4% 36.4% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.3 11.7 12.7 6.0 1.1 63.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.5 1.9 5.7 5.7 1.9 15.1 52.8 17.0