East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #130
Expected Predictive Rating +0.1 #157
Pace 65.1 #281
Improvement -1.0 #235

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #141 C C C+ C+ B-
Defense #131 C- B B C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #44 1.23 #99 +5.0 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #206 0.82 #97 +0.0 #173
Three Pointers 37% #278 0.93 #292 -4.0 #314
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #145 +1.1 #143
Freethrows 0.30 #193 76% #67 0.23 #149
Second Chance 26.8% #286 1.15 #61 0.31 #204
Turnovers 15.9% #144
Total Offense +0.7 #141

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #249 1.21 #254 +0.4 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #324 0.66 #38 +2.7 #12
Three Pointers 48% #22 1.07 #265 -5.2 #345
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #252 -2.0 #252
Freethrows 0.29 #150 74% #278 0.21 #167
Second Chance 30.2% #160 0.86 #11 0.26 #45
Turnovers 19.3% #42
Total Defense +1.1 #131

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #101 1.0% #267
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.8% #161 3.0% #237
Possession Length 18.4 #280 17.2 #160
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #204 0.21 #290
Improvement -0.6 #218 -0.4 #217

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.3% 34.0% 28.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 72.7% 76.1% 52.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round33.3% 34.0% 28.8%
Second Round1.6% 1.7% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 85.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 34 - 6
Quad 418 - 422 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 269 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 68% -2  0 - 1 -7 -5 F A F+ -3 C F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 179 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 73% +8  1 - 1 +8 -3 A F F +10 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 330 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 81% -8  2 - 1 -4 +2 B+ F B+ -6 D F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 299 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 88% +2  3 - 1 +4 +3 F+ C+ C +3 D A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 361 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 96% +20  4 - 1 +23 +16 A A C+ +7 A+ C B-
 Sat, Nov 29 219 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 78% +10  5 - 1 +17 +2 A+ F B+ +14 A+ B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 85 @Dayton L 71 - 88 23% -10  5 - 2 -7 +2 B C+ F -8 F C+ A-
 Fri, Dec 5 192 South Alabama W 91 - 65 75% +5  6 - 2 +21 +19 C A+ A+ +2 F+ A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 172 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 49% -6  6 - 3 +1 +5 C+ D+ B+ -4 F+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 28 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 8% -10  6 - 4 -1 +1 D+ B- B+ -5 D+ C C-
 Sat, Dec 20 184 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 74% -1  6 - 5 -11 +11 A+ D+ D+ -22 F C- B
 Tue, Dec 30 351 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 86% +13  7 - 5 1 - 0 +15 +3 C- C+ F+ +15 A- C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 150 Mercer W 77 - 71 66% +1  8 - 5 2 - 0 +3 +4 F A+ C- -1 C- A+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 353 VMI W 81 - 67 94% +10  9 - 5 3 - 0 -2 +3 B D- B- -5 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 305 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 60 89% +10  10 - 5 4 - 0 +15 +2 B+ F+ B- +11 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 274 @Western Carolina L 68 - 72 69% +0  10 - 6 4 - 1 -7 -0 D- F A+ -7 F C A-
 Sat, Jan 17 239 @Samford W 76 - 75 62% +5  11 - 6 5 - 1 -0 +13 B C B -13 F C+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 254 @Chattanooga W 67 - 66 66% +2  12 - 6 6 - 1 -1 -5 F B+ C- +3 D A- A+
 Fri, Jan 23 351 The Citadel W 84 - 55 94% +18  13 - 6 7 - 1 +13 +10 B B+ C+ +6 C A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 274 Western Carolina W 81 - 70 85%
 Sat, Jan 31 211 @Wofford W 75 - 73 57%
 Wed, Feb 4 158 Furman W 72 - 67 67%
 Sat, Feb 7 353 @VMI W 78 - 66 88%
 Wed, Feb 11 254 Chattanooga W 76 - 66 83%
 Sat, Feb 14 239 Samford W 78 - 69 80%
 Wed, Feb 18 158 @Furman L 69 - 70 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 305 @UNC Greensboro W 78 - 71 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 211 Wofford W 78 - 70 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 150 @Mercer L 76 - 78 44%
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 +2 +1 C C C+ +1 C- B B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 9.5 21.7 23.3 13.2 3.7 72.7 1st
2nd 0.4 4.4 8.1 2.8 0.0 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 4.0 1.5 0.1 7.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.3 10.4 19.0 24.5 23.3 13.2 3.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 3.7    3.7
16-2 100.0% 13.2    13.2
15-3 100.0% 23.3    21.5 1.8 0.0
14-4 88.4% 21.7    14.2 6.9 0.6 0.0
13-5 49.9% 9.5    2.7 4.4 2.2 0.2
12-6 11.5% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 72.7% 72.7 55.5 13.6 3.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 3.7% 46.9% 46.9% 12.5 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.0
16-2 13.2% 41.2% 41.2% 13.3 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.1 0.1 7.8
15-3 23.3% 38.1% 38.1% 13.8 0.2 2.7 5.1 1.0 14.5
14-4 24.5% 32.6% 32.6% 14.1 0.1 1.4 4.5 2.0 0.0 16.5
13-5 19.0% 28.9% 28.9% 14.3 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.2 0.1 13.5
12-6 10.4% 26.5% 26.5% 14.6 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.1 7.6
11-7 4.3% 17.9% 17.9% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.5
10-8 1.2% 13.2% 13.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
9-9 0.3% 9.3% 9.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 13.9 66.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 12.5 2.6 51.0 42.9 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%