Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 #286
Expected Predictive Rating -9.3 #318
Pace 60.5 #359
Improvement -1.3 #243

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #182 B- D+ D+ D+ C+
Defense #345 D- C F+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #259 1.18 #149 -1.3 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #297 0.86 #52 -1.3 #246
Three Pointers 49% #32 1.10 #64 +6.4 #22
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #71 +3.8 #71
Freethrows 0.27 #284 70% #263 0.19 #289
Second Chance 25.6% #310 1.05 #174 0.27 #279
Turnovers 18.1% #289
Total Offense -0.5 #182

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.19 #229 -1.7 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #194 0.92 #358 -1.5 #300
Three Pointers 40% #222 1.19 #356 -2.8 #300
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #343 -6.0 #343
Freethrows 0.29 #146 71% #132 0.21 #134
Second Chance 30.2% #162 1.07 #213 0.32 #187
Turnovers 12.2% #357
Total Defense -6.5 #345

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #122 0.4% #201
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.3% #79 11.3% #349
Possession Length 19.4 #340 17.4 #190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #355 0.15 #117
Improvement -3.7 #343 +2.4 #56

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 8.0% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.9% 8.9% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 35.1% 51.1% 19.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 4.1% 19.2%
First Four5.1% 5.9% 4.2%
First Round3.8% 5.2% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Away) - 49.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 412 - 1113 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 252 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 OT 32% -2  1 - 0 -1 -5 D D+ D- +4 A- C+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 59 @Northwestern L 52 - 76 5% -18  1 - 1 -12 -8 C+ F F -8 D- A- F+
 Wed, Nov 12 265 Brown W 90 - 77 57% +14  2 - 1 +4 +26 A+ A+ F+ -20 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 209 Merrimack L 79 - 91 45% -10  2 - 2 -18 +12 A+ C B+ -30 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 169 @Columbia L 49 - 54 19% -12  2 - 3 -3 -15 F C- A +11 B A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 178 Harvard W 75 - 74 29% -2  3 - 3 -0 +8 A+ C- F -9 F D+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 116 @Penn St. L 87 - 96 12% -12  3 - 4 -3 +23 A+ B- A -27 F F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 176 @Northern Kentucky L 65 - 74 21% +2  3 - 5 -7 +0 B C- F -9 A+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 314 @New Hampshire L 82 - 88 OT 47% +6  3 - 6 -12 +1 D+ B D+ -13 F D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 336 Maine L 59 - 69 75% -7  3 - 7 -24 -9 F B F -17 F A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 235 @Dartmouth L 64 - 77 29% -9  3 - 8 -14 -5 D D F+ -10 D A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 321 Umass Lowell W 88 - 76 71% +9  4 - 8 -1 +16 A+ A+ F+ -16 F D D-
 Wed, Dec 31 175 @Navy L 77 - 82 21% -5  4 - 9 0 - 1 -3 +11 B F+ A+ -14 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 233 American L 62 - 64 50% -5  4 - 10 0 - 2 -9 -1 F B- A -8 D- A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 315 @Lafayette W 83 - 67 47% +10  5 - 10 1 - 2 +10 +13 A D C -2 D+ A F
 Sat, Jan 10 334 Army W 100 - 91 75% +8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -5 +20 A+ D+ D -25 F F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 304 Lehigh L 91 - 93 OT 66% -6  6 - 11 2 - 3 -13 +5 A- F B- -19 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 318 @Loyola Maryland L 57 - 74 48% -1  6 - 12 2 - 4 -23 -20 F F F -3 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 315 Lafayette W 77 - 73 OT 70% -2  7 - 12 3 - 4 -8 -3 B- F+ F -5 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 214 @Colgate L 79 - 80 OT 26% +3  7 - 13 3 - 5 -1 +2 A- F D- -3 C- F+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 175 Navy L 50 - 58 40% +2  7 - 14 3 - 6 -12 -10 D+ C- F -4 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 322 @Bucknell L 69 - 70 49%
 Mon, Feb 2 323 @Holy Cross L 69 - 70 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 318 Loyola Maryland W 76 - 71 69%
 Wed, Feb 11 334 @Army W 74 - 73 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 322 Bucknell W 73 - 67 71%
 Mon, Feb 16 214 Colgate L 72 - 73 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 304 @Lehigh L 69 - 71 45%
 Wed, Feb 25 323 Holy Cross W 73 - 67 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 233 @American L 68 - 74 29%
Totals 12 - 18 8 - 10 -7 -1 B- D+ D+ -7 D- C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.4 2.0 0.4 5.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 10.3 8.0 1.4 0.1 22.7 4th
5th 1.5 11.0 7.2 0.7 0.0 20.4 5th
6th 0.2 6.7 8.2 1.1 16.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.1 9.4 1.4 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.7 6.0 3.2 0.1 10.0 8th
9th 0.3 3.0 3.8 0.2 7.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.6 4.3 10th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.9 12.7 21.0 23.5 19.1 11.2 4.0 0.8 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.8% 30.7% 30.7% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6
11-7 4.0% 14.9% 14.9% 15.6 0.2 0.4 3.4
10-8 11.2% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.1 1.2 10.0
9-9 19.1% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 1.6 17.5
8-10 23.5% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 1.3 22.2
7-11 21.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.8 20.2
6-12 12.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 12.4
5-13 5.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 5.7
4-14 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.9 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.8 24.0 72.0 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.1%