College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 #154
Expected Predictive Rating +2.4 #124
Pace 71.1 #119
Improvement +2.3 #83

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #175 C- C C B+ C-
Defense #140 C+ C D- B+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #226 1.28 #66 +1.3 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #140 0.71 #246 +0.2 #167
Three Pointers 41% #184 0.88 #333 -2.8 #287
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #218 -1.3 #217
Freethrows 0.36 #33 74% #124 0.27 #30
Second Chance 30.3% #195 1.04 #180 0.32 #174
Turnovers 16.2% #161
Total Offense -0.3 #175

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 1.19 #217 +3.8 #62
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #79 0.75 #164 -1.2 #281
Three Pointers 45% #71 0.94 #76 -0.3 #198
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #112 +2.3 #109
Freethrows 0.24 #32 69% #44 0.17 #22
Second Chance 30.5% #178 1.03 #148 0.31 #170
Turnovers 13.4% #335
Total Defense +0.6 #140

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #234 -1.8% #46
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #202 -2.8% #130
Possession Length 17.2 #154 17.2 #155
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #161 0.18 #214
Improvement -1.8 #280 +4.1 #12

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 14.7% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.7
.500 or above 97.7% 99.5% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.8% 97.7%
Conference Champion 27.5% 33.6% 17.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.9% 14.7% 12.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 37 - 68 - 11
Quad 411 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 91 @Liberty L 75 - 90 20% -8  0 - 1 -6 +13 B A C- -20 D F F
 Sat, Nov 8 107 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 36% -15  0 - 2 -13 +9 C D A- -23 C F F
 Fri, Nov 14 360 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 95% +14  1 - 2 +9 +11 C+ C+ A -1 C+ B+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 150 Drake L 62 - 71 61% -5  1 - 3 -12 -11 F D+ C- -1 C+ B A
 Fri, Nov 21 170 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 55% -1  2 - 3 +3 -2 F+ A B+ +5 C- C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 23 71 Yale L 63 - 74 23% -9  2 - 4 -3 -5 D- F C+ +1 C- A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 268 Evansville W 78 - 59 73% +12  3 - 4 +13 +5 C+ C C +8 A A+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 78 Belmont L 73 - 96 35% -19  3 - 5 -19 +0 F B- A+ -18 F A- F
 Wed, Dec 10 67 @South Florida L 75 - 81 15% -2  3 - 6 +5 +8 D B C -3 C+ B- D+
 Sun, Dec 14 164 Charlotte W 74 - 67 64% +4  4 - 6 +4 -1 B- C+ D +5 B+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 347 The Citadel W 82 - 78 92% -2  5 - 6 -11 -2 C F D+ -10 D- C C-
 Sun, Dec 21 176 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 45% +4  6 - 6 +13 +8 B+ C+ C- +4 C B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 201 Drexel W 72 - 63 71% -1  7 - 6 1 - 0 +4 +8 B+ A D -3 C+ C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 183 @Elon W 85 - 81 46% +7  8 - 6 2 - 0 +5 +5 D- B C- +0 B+ B- F
 Mon, Jan 5 135 William & Mary W 88 - 79 57% +6  9 - 6 3 - 0 +8 +1 B+ F D- +5 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 237 Hampton W 74 - 70 77% +5  10 - 6 4 - 0 -3 +8 C+ C+ B+ -11 B D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 168 @Towson L 52 - 61 43% -9  10 - 7 4 - 1 -7 -16 F C- F +9 A+ D C
 Sat, Jan 17 223 @Stony Brook L 106 - 112 2OT 53% -3  10 - 8 4 - 2 -7 +12 C- A A- -18 F C F
 Thu, Jan 22 222 Campbell W 87 - 83 74% +3  11 - 8 5 - 2 -3 +6 B C D- -9 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 24 183 Elon W 80 - 70 69% +10  12 - 8 6 - 2 +5 -1 C C- F +6 A+ C+ C
 Thu, Jan 29 134 @Hofstra W 66 - 64 34% -3  13 - 8 7 - 2 +7 -5 F B- C+ +11 A+ C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 252 @Northeastern W 81 - 78 61%
 Thu, Feb 5 288 N.C. A&T W 83 - 73 84%
 Mon, Feb 9 115 UNC Wilmington W 73 - 72 53%
 Thu, Feb 12 134 Hofstra W 74 - 72 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 222 @Campbell W 80 - 79 53%
 Thu, Feb 19 288 @N.C. A&T W 80 - 76 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 199 Monmouth W 75 - 69 71%
 Thu, Feb 26 237 @Hampton W 71 - 69 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 115 @UNC Wilmington L 70 - 76 30%
Totals 18 - 12 12 - 6 +0 +0 C- C C +1 C+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 8.1 10.7 6.0 1.0 27.5 1st
2nd 0.2 6.4 17.0 14.8 5.3 0.3 44.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 7.7 4.3 0.5 14.2 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 3.0 0.2 6.5 4th
5th 1.0 2.8 0.4 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.3 8.2 17.6 23.1 23.4 16.1 6.3 1.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.0    1.0
15-3 94.6% 6.0    4.9 1.1
14-4 66.7% 10.7    6.2 4.5 0.1
13-5 34.6% 8.1    2.5 4.2 1.3 0.0
12-6 6.9% 1.6    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 14.8 10.5 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.0% 35.5% 35.5% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.6
15-3 6.3% 25.2% 25.2% 13.1 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.7
14-4 16.1% 17.6% 17.6% 13.3 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.0 13.2
13-5 23.4% 14.5% 14.5% 13.6 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.2 20.0
12-6 23.1% 13.2% 13.2% 13.8 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 20.1
11-7 17.6% 11.5% 11.5% 13.9 0.5 1.1 0.4 15.6
10-8 8.2% 5.2% 5.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.8
9-9 3.3% 6.0% 6.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.1
8-10 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 13.6 86.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.1 1.4 84.5 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%