Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.6 #263
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #316
Pace 68.5 #190
Improvement +0.6 #159

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #149 C- B- C- D- D-
Defense #339 D C- D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 24% #365 1.11 #236 -9.1 #365
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #125 0.74 #202 +0.7 #143
Three Pointers 53% #13 1.01 #195 +6.1 #24
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #245 -2.4 #245
Freethrows 0.24 #337 72% #206 0.17 #328
Second Chance 32.9% #114 1.14 #66 0.38 #70
Turnovers 17.2% #241
Total Offense +0.4 #149

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #170 1.28 #325 -2.9 #277
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #120 0.93 #358 -2.5 #339
Three Pointers 39% #247 1.07 #254 +0.2 #167
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #328 -5.2 #327
Freethrows 0.33 #278 74% #271 0.25 #292
Second Chance 32.7% #276 1.07 #220 0.35 #260
Turnovers 14.8% #282
Total Defense -6.0 #339

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #327 -0.3% #138
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #208 10.4% #340
Possession Length 18.9 #320 16.1 #25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #239 0.25 #358
Improvement +2.3 #68 -1.7 #284

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 6.4% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 1.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 29.1% 49.6% 19.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 1.3% 6.6%
First Four4.2% 5.4% 3.6%
First Round3.1% 4.4% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Away) - 31.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 49 - 810 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 166 Western Kentucky L 79 - 87 42% +0  0 - 1 -12 +0 A- F+ D+ -11 F+ A- F
 Wed, Nov 12 12 @Vanderbilt L 62 - 92 1% -19  0 - 2 -8 -3 D- C C -3 D- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 143 @Kent St. L 78 - 93 18% -16  0 - 3 -11 -5 F+ B F -4 D C C+
 Sat, Nov 22 150 Mercer L 83 - 95 38% -11  0 - 4 -15 +5 D B B- -20 F D- A-
 Mon, Nov 24 179 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 82 25% -4  0 - 5 -9 -3 F B- C -7 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 211 Wofford L 77 - 83 52% -8  0 - 6 -12 -3 F A+ B- -9 C C F
 Wed, Dec 3 88 @Illinois St. L 78 - 89 9% -9  0 - 7 -2 +10 B- B+ D+ -11 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 312 @Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 51% +5  1 - 7 +3 +4 C D+ C -0 C+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 13 91 Miami (OH) L 69 - 79 21% -9  1 - 8 -7 -3 D- C+ F+ -5 C D- D+
 Wed, Dec 17 184 @Jacksonville St. W 62 - 59 26% +5  2 - 8 +4 -3 D- A- F +7 B+ A C
 Sun, Dec 21 99 @Wichita St. L 57 - 88 11% -22  2 - 9 -23 -9 F+ D B -15 D- F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 199 @Queens L 89 - 91 28% -1  2 - 10 0 - 1 -2 +12 B- C A+ -14 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 328 @West Georgia L 76 - 88 57% +1  2 - 11 0 - 2 -19 -1 D B- B- -19 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 8 330 North Alabama W 88 - 80 78% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 -6 +13 C- A+ A -18 F C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 219 Central Arkansas W 79 - 75 OT 53% +1  4 - 11 2 - 2 -2 +2 B C C- -4 F+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 172 @Austin Peay L 72 - 74 23% -1  4 - 12 2 - 3 +0 +11 A+ D+ F -11 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 17 303 Bellarmine W 89 - 69 71% +11  5 - 12 3 - 3 +9 +14 C A+ D- -3 A- C- D
 Thu, Jan 22 348 @North Florida L 85 - 87 64% -2  5 - 13 3 - 4 -11 +1 D+ B- D- -12 F+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 285 @Jacksonville L 76 - 81 OT 45% +3  5 - 14 3 - 5 -9 +4 D+ A+ F -13 F F B
 Wed, Jan 28 172 Austin Peay L 82 - 90 43% -10  5 - 15 3 - 6 -12 +5 F C+ A+ -16 F C- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 219 @Central Arkansas L 75 - 80 31%
 Thu, Feb 5 232 Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 79 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 329 Stetson W 81 - 73 77%
 Wed, Feb 11 169 @Lipscomb L 75 - 83 23%
 Sun, Feb 15 330 @North Alabama W 78 - 76 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 328 West Georgia W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 303 @Bellarmine L 80 - 81 49%
 Wed, Feb 25 199 Queens W 83 - 82 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 169 Lipscomb L 78 - 80 43%
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 10 -6 +0 C- B- C- -6 D C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.5 0.1 4.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 8.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 17.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 11.0 7.1 0.7 0.0 20.7 6th
7th 0.4 8.6 8.1 1.0 0.0 18.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.4 9.1 1.9 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 6.6 3.4 0.1 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.9 4.0 0.4 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.6 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.2 1.8 6.6 15.0 23.4 23.9 17.6 8.5 2.7 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.3% 8.2% 8.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 2.7% 16.1% 16.1% 15.9 0.1 0.4 2.3
10-8 8.5% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8 7.7
9-9 17.6% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 1.3 16.3
8-10 23.9% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 1.1 22.8
7-11 23.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.7 22.7
6-12 15.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.8
5-13 6.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.5
4-14 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 16.0 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%