UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #191
Expected Predictive Rating -3.2 #218
Pace 67.9 #211
Improvement +0.2 #175

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #253 C D+ C- F+ C
Defense #136 C B- C C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #223 1.16 #164 -0.9 #213
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #219 0.67 #310 -1.7 #270
Three Pointers 45% #98 1.07 #103 +3.3 #74
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #154 +0.7 #154
Freethrows 0.21 #362 74% #132 0.16 #355
Second Chance 26.6% #290 0.98 #257 0.26 #294
Turnovers 17.2% #233
Total Offense -2.9 #253

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #264 1.21 #253 +0.8 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.67 #55 +0.7 #142
Three Pointers 43% #107 1.00 #152 -0.7 #209
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #156 +0.8 #154
Freethrows 0.33 #270 72% #152 0.24 #261
Second Chance 30.6% #182 0.89 #22 0.27 #75
Turnovers 17.0% #149
Total Defense +0.9 #136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #166 -0.5% #120
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.0% #158 -0.9% #169
Possession Length 17.8 #214 17.4 #180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #274 0.17 #175
Improvement -1.6 #264 +1.8 #75

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.7% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 32.9% 47.0% 19.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.1% 86.3% 60.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.9% 3.7% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 48.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 410 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 @Baylor L 81 - 96 8% -6  0 - 1 -1 +5 A- F+ C -4 F+ A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 282 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 58% +11  1 - 1 +19 +17 A+ D+ D- +1 C+ B+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 58 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 9% -9  1 - 2 -8 -6 B D F -0 C+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 183 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 37% +2  1 - 3 -6 +2 F+ A+ F -9 C- A F
 Mon, Nov 24 6 @Illinois L 73 - 87 2% -8  1 - 4 +10 +9 B- C+ A+ +1 C A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 20% -8  1 - 5 0 - 1 -6 -6 F+ F A- +0 B B D
 Sun, Dec 7 172 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 57% +0  2 - 5 +9 -9 F+ A F +18 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 11 157 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 53% -0  2 - 6 -11 -10 D F C- -3 C C+ B
 Tue, Dec 16 205 @Lamar W 83 - 72 41% +12  3 - 6 1 - 1 +11 +12 A+ F B -0 D- A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 220 New Orleans L 69 - 85 67% -8  3 - 7 1 - 2 -23 -10 B- F F -13 C F F
 Wed, Dec 31 255 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 73% -2  3 - 8 1 - 3 -10 -7 F B F -3 C D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 61% -1  3 - 9 1 - 4 -9 -6 F F B -4 C F+ B-
 Mon, Jan 5 240 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 70% +8  4 - 9 2 - 4 +6 +10 C B+ B- -3 B+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 311 @East Texas A&M L 69 - 77 64% -9  4 - 10 2 - 5 -14 +0 B- F+ C- -15 F F C
 Mon, Jan 12 268 @Northwestern St. L 63 - 64 53% +4  4 - 11 2 - 6 -4 -9 F+ F F+ +5 B B B
 Sat, Jan 17 82 McNeese St. W 79 - 76 28% +10  5 - 11 3 - 6 +7 +14 A+ B- A- -7 B A- D+
 Mon, Jan 19 265 SE Louisiana W 68 - 65 74% +4  6 - 11 4 - 6 -6 -1 C F+ A+ -4 D A- D
 Sat, Jan 24 300 @Houston Christian W 68 - 51 62% +8  7 - 11 5 - 6 +12 +1 B+ F C- +13 C- B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 26 189 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64 - 55 38% +3  8 - 11 6 - 6 +10 +2 D+ C+ C +9 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 240 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 71 48%
 Mon, Feb 2 300 Houston Christian W 75 - 66 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 220 @New Orleans L 75 - 77 44%
 Mon, Feb 9 255 @Nicholls St. W 73 - 72 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 107 Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 70 38%
 Mon, Feb 16 205 Lamar W 70 - 66 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 265 @SE Louisiana W 68 - 67 53%
 Mon, Feb 23 82 @McNeese St. L 65 - 77 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 311 East Texas A&M W 75 - 65 82%
 Mon, Mar 2 268 Northwestern St. W 75 - 68 74%
Totals 13 - 16 11 - 11 -2 -3 C D+ C- +1 C B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 5.0 9.9 6.5 1.8 0.1 23.9 3rd
4th 0.3 5.8 12.3 6.2 1.3 0.1 25.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.1 10.1 5.5 0.6 0.0 19.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 7.2 5.5 0.6 0.0 14.4 6th
7th 0.3 3.4 4.7 0.8 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.6 7.9 15.9 22.8 23.4 16.8 7.9 2.0 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 4.4% 0.0    0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.2% 22.2% 22.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-7 2.0% 9.2% 9.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
14-8 7.9% 7.8% 7.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 7.3
13-9 16.8% 4.7% 4.7% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 16.0
12-10 23.4% 3.0% 3.0% 14.9 0.1 0.6 0.0 22.7
11-11 22.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.3 0.1 22.4
10-12 15.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 15.7
9-13 7.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.9
8-14 2.6% 2.6
7-15 0.5% 0.5
6-16 0.1% 0.1
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 14.6 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%