McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#70
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#67
Pace67.3#244
Improvement+1.3#91

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#108
First Shot+1.8#125
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#112
Layup/Dunks+0.4#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#227
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement-0.5#223

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#49
First Shot+7.8#13
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#330
Layups/Dunks+9.2#7
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#248
Freethrows-1.9#299
Improvement+1.9#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.8% 61.2% 52.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
Conference Champion 77.5% 80.4% 62.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round59.7% 61.1% 51.9%
Second Round13.2% 14.0% 8.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 3.5% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Away) - 84.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 37 - 39 - 5
Quad 415 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 74 @Santa Clara L 67-79 39%     0 - 1 -1.2 +0.8 -2.5
  Fri, Nov 14 325 Louisiana W 88-62 96%     1 - 1 +13.3 +16.2 -1.6
  Sun, Nov 23 82 George Washington W 92-86 52%     2 - 1 +13.3 +15.1 -2.1
  Mon, Nov 24 99 Murray St. W 73-60 62%     3 - 1 +17.9 -4.0 +21.1
  Tue, Nov 25 157 Middle Tennessee W 72-62 77%     4 - 1 +10.2 +16.0 -3.5
  Mon, Dec 1 191 @Incarnate Word L 67-71 74%     4 - 2 0 - 1 -2.9 -3.7 +0.5
  Fri, Dec 5 273 Northwestern St. W 92-54 93%     5 - 2 1 - 1 +29.1 +17.0 +13.8
  Tue, Dec 9 115 @Rhode Island W 66-64 56%     6 - 2 +8.3 -1.1 +9.4
  Fri, Dec 12 303 East Texas A&M W 102-66 95%     7 - 2 2 - 1 +25.1 +14.4 +6.6
  Mon, Dec 15 274 @Houston Christian W 75-64 84%    
  Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 64-86 2%    
  Sat, Jan 3 223 Lamar W 73-58 91%    
  Mon, Jan 5 140 Stephen F. Austin W 75-65 81%    
  Sat, Jan 10 258 SE Louisiana W 76-60 93%    
  Mon, Jan 12 259 Nicholls St. W 78-62 93%    
  Sat, Jan 17 207 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-67 77%    
  Mon, Jan 19 210 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-64 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 247 New Orleans W 83-67 92%    
  Mon, Jan 26 258 @SE Louisiana W 73-63 82%    
  Sat, Jan 31 223 @Lamar W 70-61 78%    
  Mon, Feb 2 140 @Stephen F. Austin W 72-68 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 191 Incarnate Word W 77-64 88%    
  Mon, Feb 9 274 Houston Christian W 78-61 93%    
  Sat, Feb 14 303 @East Texas A&M W 77-64 87%    
  Mon, Feb 16 273 @Northwestern St. W 76-65 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-61 89%    
  Mon, Feb 23 207 UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-64 89%    
  Sat, Feb 28 247 @New Orleans W 80-70 81%    
  Mon, Mar 2 259 @Nicholls St. W 75-65 82%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 18 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.3 9.9 16.7 20.0 17.2 8.1 77.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 4.5 4.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.6 9.6 14.2 19.0 20.8 17.3 8.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 8.1    8.1
20-2 99.8% 17.2    16.9 0.3
19-3 96.4% 20.0    18.6 1.4
18-4 87.5% 16.7    13.9 2.7 0.1 0.0
17-5 69.6% 9.9    7.0 2.7 0.3 0.0
16-6 45.3% 4.3    2.2 1.8 0.3 0.0
15-7 19.9% 1.1    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
14-8 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 77.5% 77.5 67.1 9.4 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 8.1% 78.5% 77.6% 0.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 4.2 1.1 0.0 1.7 3.9%
20-2 17.3% 70.9% 70.7% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.2 5.5 6.3 0.3 5.0 0.7%
19-3 20.8% 66.5% 66.5% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 2.6 9.7 1.5 0.0 7.0 0.1%
18-4 19.0% 60.0% 60.0% 12.2 0.9 7.9 2.5 0.1 7.6
17-5 14.2% 54.1% 54.1% 12.4 0.2 4.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 6.5
16-6 9.6% 48.4% 48.4% 12.6 0.1 2.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.9
15-7 5.6% 39.6% 39.6% 12.9 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.4
14-8 2.9% 30.2% 30.2% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0
13-9 1.4% 22.0% 22.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-10 0.6% 20.0% 20.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
11-11 0.3% 11.6% 11.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-12 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1
9-13 0.1% 0.1
8-14 0.0% 0.0
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 59.8% 59.7% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 13.4 32.3 11.2 1.5 0.1 40.2 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 7.6 3.3 14.8 14.8 18.0 14.8 9.8 14.8 9.8