McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.1 #82
Expected Predictive Rating +9.2 #66
Pace 66.1 #259
Improvement -1.6 #262

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #73 C B- A- C+ C+
Defense #106 C+ D- A+ F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #48 1.20 #128 +4.0 #54
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #195 0.86 #50 +0.8 #141
Three Pointers 36% #279 0.93 #284 -3.9 #313
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #150 +0.8 #150
Freethrows 0.30 #179 77% #35 0.23 #129
Second Chance 36.4% #33 0.99 #245 0.36 #93
Turnovers 12.9% #16
Total Offense +4.6 #73

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #323 1.12 #128 +4.2 #54
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #287 0.67 #48 +2.1 #40
Three Pointers 51% #9 1.00 #158 -4.4 #334
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #124 +1.8 #124
Freethrows 0.38 #348 73% #215 0.28 #346
Second Chance 34.9% #326 1.14 #303 0.40 #339
Turnovers 23.6% #1
Total Defense +2.5 #106

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #122 0.0% #165
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #165 -3.6% #114
Possession Length 16.4 #90 19.1 #358
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #27 0.14 #69
Improvement +0.2 #167 -1.9 #292

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.3% 56.2% 52.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 51.4% 57.0% 35.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round55.2% 56.1% 52.7%
Second Round8.9% 9.3% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.6% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Away) - 74.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 13 - 3
Quad 36 - 29 - 5
Quad 415 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 50 @Santa Clara L 67 - 79 26% -5  0 - 1 +2 +3 F+ A+ C -1 B- B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 314 Louisiana W 88 - 62 95% +18  1 - 1 +14 +16 A+ F C -1 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 65 George Washington W 92 - 86 44% +6  2 - 1 +15 +16 C A+ A+ -2 A- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 103 Murray St. W 73 - 60 59% +16  3 - 1 +18 -4 C- F A+ +21 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 142 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 62 72% -3  4 - 1 +11 +18 F A+ A -4 C- B- B+
 Mon, Dec 1 240 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 71 79% -5  4 - 2 0 - 1 -5 -2 D- A D -4 D- F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 268 Northwestern St. W 92 - 54 92% +24  5 - 2 1 - 1 +29 +17 A+ C- B +14 B A A+
 Tue, Dec 9 109 @Rhode Island W 66 - 64 52% +2  6 - 2 +9 -0 C- F A +9 D+ C A+
 Fri, Dec 12 311 East Texas A&M W 102 - 66 95% +26  7 - 2 2 - 1 +24 +14 A+ B+ D- +6 C+ C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 300 @Houston Christian W 78 - 68 87% -1  8 - 2 3 - 1 +5 +13 C+ A+ A- -7 B F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 71 - 112 4% -30  8 - 3 -13 +1 C- D+ A+ -8 C- F A-
 Fri, Jan 2 205 Lamar W 82 - 70 88% +4  9 - 3 4 - 1 +6 +21 B+ B+ A -13 A+ F C-
 Mon, Jan 5 107 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 64 72% -2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +3 +5 B- D+ A -2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 265 SE Louisiana W 73 - 61 92% +7  11 - 3 6 - 1 +3 +8 B D- A- -3 C F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 255 Nicholls St. W 94 - 68 92% +15  12 - 3 7 - 1 +18 +12 C+ B- A+ +4 D+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 79 72% -10  12 - 4 7 - 2 -2 +12 C- C A+ -14 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 189 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 53 72% +6  13 - 4 8 - 2 +17 +14 D+ A+ C+ +7 C A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 220 New Orleans W 82 - 63 89% +9  14 - 4 9 - 2 +12 +4 D+ C C +9 C B- A+
 Tue, Jan 27 265 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 66 82% +8  15 - 4 10 - 2 +7 +9 B C- B- -2 D+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 205 @Lamar W 73 - 66 74%
 Mon, Feb 2 107 @Stephen F. Austin W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 240 Incarnate Word W 79 - 64 91%
 Mon, Feb 9 300 Houston Christian W 81 - 63 96%
 Sat, Feb 14 311 @East Texas A&M W 79 - 66 89%
 Mon, Feb 16 268 @Northwestern St. W 78 - 68 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75 - 63 87%
 Mon, Feb 23 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77 - 65 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 220 @New Orleans W 82 - 74 76%
 Mon, Mar 2 255 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 70 81%
Totals 23 - 6 18 - 4 +7 +5 C B- A- +2 C+ D- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.2 12.1 21.8 13.8 51.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 7.0 15.1 16.9 6.8 48.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.2 7.4 18.3 29.0 28.7 13.8 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 13.8    12.5 1.4
19-3 76.1% 21.8    14.1 7.7
18-4 41.8% 12.1    5.9 6.2
17-5 17.5% 3.2    1.1 2.0 0.0
16-6 6.1% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1
15-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10
11-11
Total 51.4% 51.4 33.7 17.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 13.8% 63.5% 63.3% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 5.5 3.1 0.0 5.0 0.8%
19-3 28.7% 59.0% 58.9% 0.1% 11.8 3.7 12.5 0.8 11.8 0.2%
18-4 29.0% 54.3% 54.2% 0.0% 12.1 1.2 12.3 2.1 0.1 13.2 0.1%
17-5 18.3% 50.2% 50.2% 12.3 0.3 6.5 2.4 0.1 0.0 9.1
16-6 7.4% 48.2% 48.2% 12.5 0.0 2.0 1.5 0.1 3.9
15-7 2.2% 40.1% 40.1% 12.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.3
14-8 0.5% 40.4% 40.4% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 55.3% 55.2% 0.1% 11.9 44.7 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.8% 100.0% 11.3 0.3 1.4 62.8 35.3 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.1% 0.8% 11.0 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9% 0.8% 11.0 0.8