Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#83
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#43
Pace67.6#231
Improvement+1.2#99

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#52
First Shot+5.3#53
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#90
Layup/Dunks-1.3#233
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#21
Freethrows+2.8#41
Improvement+0.9#107

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#153
First Shot-0.7#204
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#105
Layups/Dunks-0.3#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#286
Freethrows+1.3#101
Improvement+0.4#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 25.8% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 2.8% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.6
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 95.5% 92.2%
Conference Champion 32.1% 36.0% 25.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.2% 1.6% 0.5%
First Round22.7% 25.0% 18.8%
Second Round5.5% 6.4% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.4% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 4
Quad 310 - 313 - 7
Quad 410 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 115 Rhode Island W 82-65 64%     1 - 0 +20.3 +17.9 +3.6
  Wed, Nov 12 300 @Oral Roberts W 88-87 86%     2 - 0 -3.8 +7.9 -11.7
  Mon, Nov 17 67 @Kansas St. L 83-84 34%     2 - 1 +10.3 +8.5 +1.9
  Fri, Nov 21 192 Austin Peay W 84-75 87%     3 - 1 +3.9 +13.7 -9.5
  Tue, Nov 25 188 San Jose St. W 81-51 80%     4 - 1 +28.2 +17.3 +15.1
  Wed, Nov 26 93 Northern Iowa W 63-60 56%     5 - 1 +8.6 +3.8 +5.1
  Sat, Dec 6 251 Missouri St. W 98-74 91%     6 - 1 +15.9 +25.6 -8.7
  Wed, Dec 10 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117-84 97%     7 - 1 +17.3 +26.7 -12.5
  Sat, Dec 13 133 New Mexico St. W 83-70 70%     8 - 1 +14.7 +11.3 +3.4
  Fri, Dec 19 147 @Western Kentucky W 81-78 63%    
  Mon, Dec 22 312 Denver W 90-71 96%    
  Wed, Dec 31 208 Rice W 80-67 89%    
  Sun, Jan 4 145 @North Texas W 70-67 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 86 South Florida W 82-78 63%    
  Wed, Jan 14 194 @Charlotte W 75-69 73%    
  Sun, Jan 18 119 @UAB W 79-78 53%    
  Wed, Jan 21 75 Memphis W 78-76 59%    
  Sun, Jan 25 208 @Rice W 77-70 75%    
  Wed, Jan 28 145 North Texas W 73-64 80%    
  Sun, Feb 1 100 Wichita St. W 76-71 69%    
  Wed, Feb 4 117 @Florida Atlantic W 79-78 54%    
  Sun, Feb 8 86 @South Florida L 79-81 42%    
  Wed, Feb 11 119 UAB W 82-75 74%    
  Sat, Feb 14 100 @Wichita St. L 73-74 47%    
  Wed, Feb 18 194 Charlotte W 78-66 87%    
  Sun, Feb 22 286 Texas San Antonio W 84-67 94%    
  Wed, Feb 25 206 @Tulane W 80-73 74%    
  Thu, Mar 5 280 @East Carolina W 80-69 83%    
  Sun, Mar 8 158 Temple W 84-74 81%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.3 8.0 9.4 7.0 3.2 0.8 32.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.9 8.3 6.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 6.7 4.0 0.7 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.5 8.7 11.8 14.5 16.0 14.9 11.5 7.3 3.3 0.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.8% 3.2    3.2 0.1
16-2 96.1% 7.0    6.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 81.6% 9.4    6.4 2.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 53.5% 8.0    3.6 3.5 0.8 0.1
13-5 20.5% 3.3    0.6 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.1% 32.1 20.8 8.7 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 76.2% 49.6% 26.6% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 52.8%
17-1 3.3% 59.6% 42.7% 16.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.1 1.3 29.5%
16-2 7.3% 46.1% 40.3% 5.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.4 0.4 3.9 9.9%
15-3 11.5% 34.2% 32.2% 2.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 2.5 1.2 0.0 7.6 2.9%
14-4 14.9% 29.0% 28.4% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 2.3 1.9 0.1 10.6 0.8%
13-5 16.0% 23.1% 23.0% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 1.2 2.3 0.2 12.3 0.2%
12-6 14.5% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 11.9 0.5 1.7 0.2 12.0 0.1%
11-7 11.8% 13.6% 13.6% 12.0 0.2 1.1 0.3 10.2
10-8 8.7% 9.1% 9.1% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.9
9-9 5.5% 5.8% 5.8% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.2
8-10 3.0% 4.2% 4.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
7-11 1.6% 3.1% 3.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.7% 2.2% 2.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.3% 21.7% 1.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 10.3 9.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 76.7 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 6.4 2.0 15.8 15.8 26.7 10.9 11.9 7.9 5.9 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 67.4% 9.1 2.3 4.7 4.7 9.3 16.3 14.0 16.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 44.4% 9.6 11.1 11.1 7.4 14.8