Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.0 #70
Expected Predictive Rating +9.8 #61
Pace 69.3 #167
Improvement +0.5 #161

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #30 B+ B+ B A- A-
Defense #178 C C C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #29 1.15 #181 +3.7 #62
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #353 0.84 #69 -4.1 #347
Three Pointers 46% #80 1.19 #12 +6.5 #21
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #37 +6.1 #37
Freethrows 0.34 #58 82% #1 0.28 #10
Second Chance 32.0% #141 1.31 #5 0.42 #31
Turnovers 14.1% #43
Total Offense +8.4 #30

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #213 1.19 #214 -0.1 #178
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #187 0.64 #25 +1.3 #95
Three Pointers 42% #154 1.06 #243 -1.3 #246
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #186 -0.1 #186
Freethrows 0.27 #71 74% #269 0.20 #104
Second Chance 26.3% #46 1.17 #318 0.31 #147
Turnovers 16.0% #210
Total Defense -0.4 #178

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.0% #10 0.0% #161
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.6% #65 0.3% #189
Possession Length 16.5 #100 17.9 #268
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #136 0.14 #65
Improvement +0.8 #138 -0.2 #212

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.8% 27.1% 22.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 43.5% 51.8% 23.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round25.5% 26.6% 22.6%
Second Round5.2% 5.5% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 4
Quad 312 - 215 - 6
Quad 410 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 109 Rhode Island W 82 - 65 66% +9  1 - 0 +21 +19 B+ A+ C +3 B D+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 331 @Oral Roberts W 88 - 87 92% -2  2 - 0 -7 +8 D+ B- D+ -15 F D+ F+
 Mon, Nov 17 87 @Kansas St. L 83 - 84 44% -3  2 - 1 +9 +9 C C A+ -0 A F+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 172 Austin Peay W 84 - 75 86% -2  3 - 1 +5 +14 A+ C- B+ -8 F+ B- D
 Tue, Nov 25 249 San Jose St. W 81 - 51 88% +13  4 - 1 +25 +16 B+ A+ A +13 A+ B- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 114 Northern Iowa W 63 - 60 67% +3  5 - 1 +6 +4 B D+ B- +3 A- D+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 183 Missouri St. W 98 - 74 88% +14  6 - 1 +19 +27 A+ C+ A+ -7 F A- B+
 Wed, Dec 10 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117 - 84 97% +16  7 - 1 +20 +26 A+ A+ B- -10 F D C+
 Sat, Dec 13 154 New Mexico St. W 83 - 70 77% +13  8 - 1 +13 +8 A A+ F +5 A B+ C+
 Fri, Dec 19 166 @Western Kentucky W 82 - 81 70% -3  9 - 1 +3 +11 B D+ A+ -7 D C- D-
 Mon, Dec 22 284 Denver W 90 - 85 94% +4  10 - 1 -5 -2 F+ C+ C+ -4 B F A
 Wed, Dec 31 230 Rice W 97 - 48 91% +16  11 - 1 1 - 0 +42 +27 A+ B C+ +19 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 144 @North Texas L 67 - 72 65% +0  11 - 2 1 - 1 -1 +10 C- A+ C+ -11 D D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 67 South Florida L 78 - 93 60% -8  11 - 3 1 - 2 -10 +3 C F+ B- -12 F D+ C
 Wed, Jan 14 165 @Charlotte W 86 - 74 70% +10  12 - 3 2 - 2 +15 +16 A+ D+ F+ -1 C A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 18 118 @UAB W 99 - 77 58% +10  13 - 3 3 - 2 +28 +27 A+ C+ B+ +1 C- A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 21 100 Memphis W 83 - 66 71% +3  14 - 3 4 - 2 +19 +20 C- A+ A+ -0 A- C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 230 @Rice W 87 - 81 80% +13  15 - 3 5 - 2 +5 +17 C- A+ C+ -12 F D- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 144 North Texas W 82 - 66 83% +4  16 - 3 6 - 2 +14 +13 B+ A B+ +1 C+ A C
 Sun, Feb 1 99 Wichita St. W 80 - 74 71%
 Wed, Feb 4 101 @Florida Atlantic L 81 - 82 50%
 Sun, Feb 8 67 @South Florida L 83 - 86 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 118 UAB W 85 - 77 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 99 @Wichita St. L 76 - 77 49%
 Wed, Feb 18 165 Charlotte W 82 - 71 86%
 Sun, Feb 22 341 Texas San Antonio W 91 - 68 98%
 Wed, Feb 25 175 @Tulane W 81 - 75 72%
 Thu, Mar 5 262 @East Carolina W 83 - 72 84%
 Sun, Mar 8 147 Temple W 83 - 73 83%
Totals 23 - 6 13 - 5 +8 +8 B+ B+ B +0 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 8.3 18.3 13.0 3.4 43.5 1st
2nd 0.2 6.0 13.8 5.4 0.4 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 9.9 3.4 0.2 15.3 3rd
4th 0.2 4.3 3.1 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.0 0.3 4.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 9.9 19.9 25.6 23.8 13.4 3.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.4    3.4
15-3 97.0% 13.0    11.1 1.9 0.0
14-4 76.6% 18.3    9.1 7.9 1.2
13-5 32.5% 8.3    1.3 3.6 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.5% 43.5 24.9 13.4 4.1 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.4% 44.0% 38.5% 5.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.0 1.9 8.9%
15-3 13.4% 36.0% 34.7% 1.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 3.4 1.3 0.0 8.6 2.1%
14-4 23.8% 28.7% 28.2% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 3.7 3.1 0.0 17.0 0.7%
13-5 25.6% 25.8% 25.7% 0.0% 11.7 2.2 4.2 0.2 19.0 0.1%
12-6 19.9% 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 11.8 0.9 3.0 0.1 15.8 0.0%
11-7 9.9% 16.3% 16.3% 12.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.3
10-8 3.0% 8.4% 8.4% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.8
9-9 0.8% 6.7% 6.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.8% 25.3% 0.5% 11.5 74.2 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 10.4 0.4 3.1 14.2 19.9 60.9 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 14.5% 10.9 1.4 13.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 6.5% 11.0 6.5