New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.5 #220
Expected Predictive Rating -2.3 #207
Pace 72.2 #90
Improvement -0.4 #203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #135 C B D B C-
Defense #307 C D+ D D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #155 1.09 #261 -0.7 #205
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #94 0.76 #160 +1.7 #90
Three Pointers 36% #288 1.05 #128 -1.9 #252
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #212 -1.0 #212
Freethrows 0.34 #79 76% #55 0.26 #51
Second Chance 35.9% #45 1.07 #142 0.38 #59
Turnovers 18.5% #305
Total Offense +1.0 #135

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #154 1.05 #62 +1.5 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #258 0.88 #341 -0.2 #199
Three Pointers 42% #137 1.01 #165 -0.5 #202
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #153 +0.8 #152
Freethrows 0.35 #309 73% #211 0.25 #307
Second Chance 35.7% #339 1.01 #122 0.36 #278
Turnovers 13.9% #328
Total Defense -4.5 #307

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #249 0.8% #241
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.1% #192 -2.5% #138
Possession Length 17.4 #176 16.3 #35
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #207 0.18 #233
Improvement +0.6 #150 -0.9 #249

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.7% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 7.3% 9.7% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 57.7% 66.9% 36.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 2.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.4% 1.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 20 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 54 - 12
Quad 49 - 713 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 45 @TCU W 78 - 74 6% +12  1 - 0 +19 +9 B+ A+ F +9 A+ D D
 Mon, Nov 10 47 @LSU L 58 - 93 6% -17  1 - 1 -21 -12 F C B+ -8 C+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 175 @Tulane W 85 - 63 31% +11  2 - 1 +24 +18 A+ A+ D- +7 A+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 18 281 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 52% -6  2 - 2 -15 +2 C C+ F -17 F+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 149 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 25% -4  2 - 3 -5 +1 C- B- F -5 C+ F C
 Mon, Nov 24 73 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 10% +4  2 - 4 +8 +4 C C+ F +4 A- F+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 15 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 2% -12  2 - 5 -11 -15 F C+ F +4 A+ F B+
 Wed, Dec 3 100 @Memphis L 70 - 86 14% -16  2 - 6 -8 +5 C+ D- B- -13 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 300 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 77% -4  2 - 7 0 - 1 -20 +1 D+ D B+ -21 C- F F
 Mon, Dec 8 240 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 65% +8  3 - 7 1 - 1 -6 +9 A+ D- F -15 F F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 4 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  3 - 8 -18 -2 D- A+ F -17 F A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 29 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 33% +8  4 - 8 2 - 1 +17 +15 C A+ B+ +2 C- B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 189 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 33% -6  4 - 9 2 - 2 -13 +2 D+ C D- -15 B- F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 268 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 48% +5  4 - 10 2 - 3 -9 -4 F D+ C -6 A+ F D
 Mon, Jan 5 311 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 79% +8  5 - 10 3 - 3 -2 +6 D+ F A -8 C B F+
 Sat, Jan 10 255 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 68% -7  5 - 11 3 - 4 -21 +10 C A+ D -32 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 265 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 47% +1  6 - 11 4 - 4 +0 +9 D A+ F+ -9 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 107 Stephen F. Austin L 79 - 84 33% -1  6 - 12 4 - 5 -4 +10 A- A- D -15 F+ A- F
 Mon, Jan 19 205 Lamar W 89 - 76 59% +4  7 - 12 5 - 5 +7 +12 A- C- C -5 D+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 82 @McNeese St. L 63 - 82 11% -9  7 - 13 5 - 6 -9 -5 C D F -4 B+ C- B-
 Tue, Jan 27 255 @Nicholls St. W 80 - 62 45% +9  8 - 13 6 - 6 +16 +3 F A+ D- +12 A C+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 268 Northwestern St. W 80 - 75 70%
 Mon, Feb 2 311 @East Texas A&M W 78 - 76 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77 - 75 56%
 Mon, Feb 9 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 300 @Houston Christian W 78 - 76 56%
 Mon, Feb 16 240 @Incarnate Word L 76 - 78 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 205 @Lamar L 73 - 77 36%
 Mon, Feb 23 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 71 - 81 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 82 McNeese St. L 74 - 82 24%
 Mon, Mar 2 265 SE Louisiana W 77 - 72 69%
Totals 13 - 18 11 - 11 -4 +1 C B D -5 C D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.0 6.5 3.8 0.9 0.1 15.9 3rd
4th 0.4 4.7 9.2 3.9 0.4 0.0 18.5 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 10.7 4.5 0.4 0.0 19.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 9.6 6.1 0.6 0.0 18.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 5.8 6.4 1.0 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 4.6 0.9 7.8 8th
9th 0.4 2.6 0.9 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 0.3 1.7 6.4 13.0 20.9 23.1 18.4 10.8 4.3 1.1 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0%
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.1% 23.1% 23.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-7 1.1% 7.1% 7.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
14-8 4.3% 3.3% 3.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1
13-9 10.8% 3.5% 3.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 10.4
12-10 18.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.3 0.1 18.0
11-11 23.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.1 0.2 22.8
10-12 20.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 20.7
9-13 13.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.0
8-14 6.4% 6.4
7-15 1.7% 1.7
6-16 0.3% 0.3
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.0 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%