Lamar
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #205
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #223
Pace 64.2 #304
Improvement +1.7 #106

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #244 D+ C+ C D- F
Defense #169 C- C C+ D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 0.99 #344 -6.8 #351
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #13 0.78 #142 +5.1 #10
Three Pointers 35% #299 1.04 #149 -2.4 #266
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #299 -4.0 #298
Freethrows 0.24 #341 72% #185 0.17 #332
Second Chance 33.8% #91 1.05 #182 0.35 #107
Turnovers 16.6% #188
Total Offense -2.7 #244

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.21 #255 -1.5 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #170 0.70 #95 +0.5 #148
Three Pointers 40% #215 1.07 #256 -0.5 #200
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #225 -1.5 #225
Freethrows 0.38 #352 69% #39 0.26 #331
Second Chance 31.7% #233 1.03 #159 0.33 #208
Turnovers 17.6% #99
Total Defense -0.1 #169

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.2% #359 0.1% #174
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.8% #241 2.8% #235
Possession Length 17.9 #233 17.8 #260
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #132 0.20 #267
Improvement +3.6 #25 -2.0 #297

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.5% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 44.0% 66.6% 36.0%
.500 or above in Conference 61.7% 81.9% 54.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round2.2% 3.5% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 26.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 412 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 45 @TCU L 65 - 78 6% -2  0 - 1 +2 +7 C+ C A+ -6 D+ F A
 Mon, Nov 17 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 66 83% +9  1 - 1 +0 -2 F D- B +2 C D B-
 Sun, Nov 23 161 @Montana W 68 - 63 29% +0  2 - 1 +8 -5 F A D- +13 A+ A B+
 Mon, Nov 24 135 Oakland L 68 - 83 33% -4  2 - 2 -13 -9 F A- F -4 B- F B
 Wed, Dec 3 314 Louisiana W 65 - 55 81% -2  3 - 2 -2 -2 D- D A- +1 D+ F+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 49 - 57 58% -1  3 - 3 0 - 1 -13 -15 F+ D B- +0 C- C- A-
 Wed, Dec 10 41 @San Diego St. L 71 - 89 6% -10  3 - 4 -3 +2 B- D+ F+ -3 C C+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 83 59% -12  3 - 5 0 - 2 -16 -1 B- F C- -15 F B D+
 Sat, Dec 20 243 Nebraska Omaha L 82 - 85 OT 68% -7  3 - 6 -11 +2 F+ A+ C -12 F D B
 Mon, Dec 29 268 @Northwestern St. W 76 - 61 51% +12  4 - 6 1 - 2 +12 +5 B+ D- D +8 B+ B+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 311 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 62 62% -0  5 - 6 2 - 2 +1 -0 F A A- +2 B+ F A
 Fri, Jan 2 82 @McNeese St. L 70 - 82 12% -4  5 - 7 2 - 3 -2 +12 F A+ A+ -16 F+ D C
 Mon, Jan 5 265 @SE Louisiana L 52 - 60 50% -9  5 - 8 2 - 4 -11 -9 F B- D+ -3 F A F+
 Sat, Jan 10 240 Incarnate Word W 63 - 51 67% +5  6 - 8 3 - 4 +5 -5 D F+ F+ +11 D+ A+ A
 Mon, Jan 12 300 Houston Christian W 64 - 56 79% -1  7 - 8 4 - 4 -3 -8 D F+ F +6 A B- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 255 @Nicholls St. W 90 - 80 48% +5  8 - 8 5 - 4 +8 +18 A+ A+ C -10 D+ F B
 Mon, Jan 19 220 @New Orleans L 76 - 89 41% -4  8 - 9 5 - 5 -14 -2 C D- C- -11 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 107 Stephen F. Austin L 81 - 88 36% -4  8 - 10 5 - 6 -6 +14 B- A+ C- -20 F B+ F+
 Tue, Jan 27 311 East Texas A&M W 82 - 61 80% +7  9 - 10 6 - 6 +9 +9 B+ B- D +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 82 McNeese St. L 66 - 73 26%
 Mon, Feb 2 265 SE Louisiana W 69 - 63 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 73 18%
 Mon, Feb 9 268 Northwestern St. W 73 - 67 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 189 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64 - 68 37%
 Mon, Feb 16 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 70 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 220 New Orleans W 77 - 73 64%
 Mon, Feb 23 255 Nicholls St. W 73 - 68 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 240 @Incarnate Word L 68 - 69 46%
 Mon, Mar 2 300 @Houston Christian W 70 - 68 58%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 11 -3 -3 D+ C+ C +0 C- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.5 7.4 4.3 1.1 0.1 17.9 3rd
4th 0.4 5.3 9.8 4.1 0.5 0.0 20.1 4th
5th 0.1 3.5 10.9 5.0 0.5 19.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 8.5 6.0 0.7 0.0 16.7 6th
7th 0.5 5.5 6.2 0.9 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.4 2.1 0.8 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.4 5.2 12.2 19.4 23.6 19.9 11.9 4.8 1.2 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 4.3% 0.0    0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.1% 8.7% 8.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1
15-7 1.2% 14.5% 14.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
14-8 4.8% 8.0% 8.0% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5
13-9 11.9% 3.6% 3.6% 14.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.5
12-10 19.9% 3.3% 3.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 19.3
11-11 23.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 23.3
10-12 19.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.1 0.1 19.2
9-13 12.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.2
8-14 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
7-15 1.4% 1.4
6-16 0.2% 0.2
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 14.7 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%