Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #255
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 #232
Pace 70.9 #127
Improvement +0.1 #177

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #254 C- D C D C+
Defense #246 F+ D+ A D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #240 1.12 #220 -1.9 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #270 0.59 #351 -3.0 #324
Three Pointers 47% #55 1.04 #158 +3.8 #61
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #216 -1.2 #215
Freethrows 0.29 #240 65% #356 0.19 #302
Second Chance 25.9% #303 0.97 #287 0.25 #317
Turnovers 16.2% #163
Total Offense -3.0 #254

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #100 1.32 #345 -5.3 #345
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #243 0.81 #275 +0.3 #164
Three Pointers 40% #216 1.14 #331 -1.9 #274
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #351 -6.8 #351
Freethrows 0.35 #315 76% #345 0.27 #333
Second Chance 35.1% #329 1.01 #130 0.35 #269
Turnovers 21.4% #9
Total Defense -2.3 #246

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #136 1.0% #266
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.1% #229 12.2% #356
Possession Length 17.2 #160 16.9 #101
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #70 0.20 #282
Improvement +0.2 #166 -0.1 #201

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 1.4% 2.4% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 61.6% 76.2% 45.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 52.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 54 - 13
Quad 48 - 712 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 27 @Kentucky L 51 - 77 3% -15  0 - 1 -8 -13 F F B- +5 D+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 312 @Eastern Illinois L 57 - 65 52% -5  0 - 2 -14 -14 F F B +0 B- F A-
 Wed, Nov 12 167 @Valparaiso L 63 - 68 23% -3  0 - 3 -3 -0 C A- F -3 D+ C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 103 @Murray St. L 79 - 99 11% -11  0 - 4 -12 +1 D+ A- F -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 63 @Oklahoma St. L 81 - 95 6% -12  0 - 5 -2 +1 D+ B- C- -1 F+ A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 175 @Tulane L 72 - 82 25% -7  0 - 6 -8 +1 B+ F B- -9 F A- B+
 Tue, Dec 2 55 @Creighton L 76 - 96 5% -15  0 - 7 -7 +9 A- F A+ -17 F F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 240 Incarnate Word W 74 - 67 58% +3  1 - 7 1 - 0 -0 +3 C+ F A -3 A+ F B
 Wed, Dec 17 300 Houston Christian W 79 - 64 72% +11  2 - 7 2 - 0 +4 -0 D D+ A+ +4 D+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 123 @Pacific L 82 - 95 16% -7  2 - 8 -8 +10 A+ F F -17 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 189 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 71 27% +3  3 - 8 3 - 0 +6 +16 A- A+ C+ -9 F D A+
 Wed, Dec 31 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 69 27% +2  4 - 8 4 - 0 +3 +1 C- B- F +2 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 311 East Texas A&M W 80 - 58 73% +12  5 - 8 5 - 0 +10 -0 C- D+ D +9 C+ C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 268 Northwestern St. W 74 - 72 64% +2  6 - 8 6 - 0 -7 -4 C- F B -3 C F+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 220 @New Orleans W 90 - 77 32% +7  7 - 8 7 - 0 +12 +25 A+ B+ B -11 F F A
 Mon, Jan 12 82 @McNeese St. L 68 - 94 8% -15  7 - 9 7 - 1 -16 -5 B- F D -9 F+ D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 205 Lamar L 80 - 90 52% -5  7 - 10 7 - 2 -16 +7 C B- C- -23 F F A
 Mon, Jan 19 107 Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 79 27% -16  7 - 11 7 - 3 -16 -5 F C C -12 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 265 @SE Louisiana L 61 - 67 40% -2  7 - 12 7 - 4 -9 -10 F F C +1 D+ B- A+
 Tue, Jan 27 220 New Orleans L 62 - 80 55% -9  7 - 13 7 - 5 -25 -20 F F+ F -4 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 311 @East Texas A&M W 74 - 73 52%
 Mon, Feb 2 268 @Northwestern St. L 73 - 75 41%
 Sat, Feb 7 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70 - 71 50%
 Mon, Feb 9 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 73 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 240 @Incarnate Word L 71 - 75 36%
 Mon, Feb 16 300 @Houston Christian L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 78 12%
 Mon, Feb 23 205 @Lamar L 68 - 73 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 265 SE Louisiana W 72 - 68 63%
 Mon, Mar 2 82 McNeese St. L 70 - 79 19%
Totals 11 - 19 11 - 11 -5 -3 C- D C -2 F+ D+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.1 6.8 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.4 5.1 9.3 4.4 0.6 0.0 19.7 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 11.3 4.9 0.4 0.0 20.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 9.6 6.1 0.6 18.3 6th
7th 0.4 5.7 6.0 1.0 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 0.7 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.9 4.7 12.3 20.5 24.0 18.9 11.6 5.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.0% 0.0
16-6 0.3% 6.2% 6.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-7 1.7% 3.6% 3.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 1.6
14-8 5.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.1 0.0 4.9
13-9 11.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 11.4
12-10 18.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 18.7
11-11 24.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 23.9
10-12 20.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 20.5
9-13 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.3
8-14 4.7% 4.7
7-15 0.9% 0.9
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.7 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%