East Texas A&M
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.8 #311
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 #252
Pace 71.5 #110
Improvement -0.5 #213

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #338 D+ D D F+ C+
Defense #236 D+ D+ C+ C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #238 1.13 #206 -1.7 #246
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #259 0.68 #301 -2.2 #287
Three Pointers 47% #63 0.91 #308 +0.6 #151
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #279 -3.3 #280
Freethrows 0.23 #346 66% #342 0.15 #359
Second Chance 25.4% #315 0.99 #243 0.25 #315
Turnovers 18.5% #303
Total Offense -7.0 #338

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 1.15 #161 -3.9 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #328 0.76 #181 +2.0 #46
Three Pointers 39% #239 1.13 #325 -1.2 #238
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #283 -3.2 #283
Freethrows 0.31 #224 70% #60 0.22 #182
Second Chance 33.2% #290 1.08 #241 0.36 #283
Turnovers 17.1% #132
Total Defense -1.8 #236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #145 2.4% #355
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.0% #301 3.8% #253
Possession Length 17.1 #141 16.7 #81
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #225 0.18 #227
Improvement -0.4 #206 -0.1 #199

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 1.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 46.8% 33.6% 59.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 49 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 42 @New Mexico L 54 - 76 2% -16  0 - 1 -7 -15 F+ D- F +10 A D- A
 Sun, Nov 9 102 @Hawaii L 74 - 100 7% -17  0 - 2 -18 +2 B D+ D -18 F F C
 Fri, Nov 14 232 @Rice L 64 - 71 23% -2  0 - 3 -8 -7 C- F+ F -1 F C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 344 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 70 - 65 50% -5  1 - 3 -4 -4 D+ D F +1 F D A+
 Tue, Nov 25 334 Army W 84 - 67 59% +10  2 - 3 +6 +5 B+ F+ F +1 C C+ C+
 Fri, Dec 5 10 @Connecticut L 59 - 83 1% -13  2 - 4 -1 +3 A F+ C- -5 C+ B- F
 Sun, Dec 7 221 Central Arkansas W 75 - 68 41% +1  3 - 4 +1 -6 F B D+ +6 C A+ C
 Fri, Dec 12 81 @McNeese St. L 66 - 102 5% -26  3 - 5 0 - 1 -26 -10 D+ F F+ -11 F D- A+
 Mon, Dec 15 264 @SE Louisiana W 70 - 69 28% -1  4 - 5 1 - 1 -2 +5 C+ F C+ -7 D- B- F
 Sun, Dec 21 30 @Texas A&M L 77 - 118 2% -22  4 - 6 -23 -0 F D B- -16 F F B-
 Mon, Dec 29 108 Stephen F. Austin L 48 - 75 18% -6  4 - 7 1 - 2 -26 -19 D+ F F -9 C D C
 Wed, Dec 31 207 Lamar L 62 - 69 38% +0  4 - 8 1 - 3 -13 -9 F A- F -4 A F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 253 @Nicholls St. L 58 - 80 27% -12  4 - 9 1 - 4 -24 -19 F F+ F -5 C- D B+
 Mon, Jan 5 220 @New Orleans L 73 - 83 21% -8  4 - 10 1 - 5 -10 -4 D+ F C -7 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77 - 69 36% +9  5 - 10 2 - 5 +3 +9 A- A+ C- -5 D- C C+
 Mon, Jan 12 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 50 - 61 36% -5  5 - 11 2 - 6 -16 -19 F D C- +3 B F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 302 @Houston Christian L 70 - 81 36% +3  5 - 12 2 - 7 -16 -6 D D- D- -11 D- F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 240 @Incarnate Word W 80 - 58 24% +11  6 - 12 3 - 7 +21 +19 A A A+ +5 A+ C- F+
 Tue, Jan 27 207 @Lamar L 61 - 82 20% -7  6 - 13 3 - 8 -21 -8 F B- A -13 F D B
 Sat, Jan 31 253 Nicholls St. L 73 - 74 50%
 Mon, Feb 2 220 New Orleans L 76 - 78 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 269 Northwestern St. W 73 - 72 49%
 Mon, Feb 9 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 78 7%
 Sat, Feb 14 81 McNeese St. L 66 - 79 11%
 Mon, Feb 16 264 SE Louisiana L 68 - 69 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 240 Incarnate Word L 71 - 72 44%
 Mon, Feb 23 302 Houston Christian W 72 - 70 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 65 - 75 19%
 Mon, Mar 2 189 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 73 19%
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 15 -9 -7 D+ D D -2 D+ D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 0.9 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.6 4.8 3.4 0.1 8.9 8th
9th 0.6 5.0 6.9 0.8 13.4 9th
10th 0.2 4.8 11.4 2.7 19.1 10th
11th 0.3 4.6 11.2 5.4 0.2 21.7 11th
12th 1.9 7.6 12.7 6.9 0.9 0.0 30.0 12th
Total 1.9 7.9 17.5 23.5 23.4 15.3 7.7 2.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10 0.1% 0.1
11-11 0.4% 5.6% 5.6% 15.0 0.0 0.4
10-12 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.2
9-13 7.7% 7.7
8-14 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.3
7-15 23.4% 23.4
6-16 23.5% 23.5
5-17 17.5% 17.5
4-18 7.9% 7.9
3-19 1.9% 1.9
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.4 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%