SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #265
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #309
Pace 66.8 #237
Improvement +3.9 #29

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #328 D- D C- C+ D+
Defense #147 C C- B+ F C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #265 1.16 #170 -1.7 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #106 0.63 #338 -0.2 #182
Three Pointers 41% #190 0.85 #348 -3.7 #308
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #330 -5.7 #332
Freethrows 0.34 #72 70% #249 0.24 #116
Second Chance 26.2% #301 0.90 #334 0.24 #337
Turnovers 17.5% #252
Total Offense -6.4 #328

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #237 1.20 #239 +0.4 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #115 0.78 #223 -0.9 #251
Three Pointers 41% #181 1.04 #219 -0.5 #203
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #206 -1.0 #209
Freethrows 0.39 #356 75% #305 0.29 #357
Second Chance 30.7% #184 1.11 #280 0.34 #240
Turnovers 19.5% #38
Total Defense +0.6 #147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #275 -0.7% #111
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.9% #328 2.7% #232
Possession Length 17.9 #234 17.5 #201
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #217 0.21 #310
Improvement +1.2 #122 +2.7 #43

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.5% 9.7% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.9% 12.8% 32.2%
First Four0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 11.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 62 - 13
Quad 48 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 64 @Mississippi L 58 - 88 6% -12  0 - 1 -18 -5 D+ F C- -14 F+ D+ B
 Fri, Nov 7 314 @Louisiana L 52 - 58 52% -9  0 - 2 -12 -11 F D D+ -3 F A+ B
 Mon, Nov 10 111 @Georgia Tech L 60 - 70 13% -0  0 - 3 -3 -12 D F F +10 A- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 73 @Mississippi St. L 68 - 75 7% -5  0 - 4 +4 -2 D D C+ +6 C+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 121 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 70 14% +1  0 - 5 -7 -6 D- F+ B+ -3 C B C
 Fri, Nov 28 363 Gardner-Webb W 76 - 68 87% -2  1 - 5 -10 -7 F F C- -3 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 178 Navy W 69 - 65 34% +7  2 - 5 +3 +4 A+ C- F -1 B- C+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 268 Northwestern St. L 68 - 76 62% +3  2 - 6 0 - 1 -17 -7 F D C -10 C- F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 300 @Houston Christian W 74 - 71 OT 48% +3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -3 F D D+ +1 C- C- A-
 Mon, Dec 15 311 East Texas A&M L 69 - 70 72% +1  3 - 7 1 - 2 -13 -1 D+ F A+ -12 F+ B+ C
 Fri, Dec 19 47 @LSU L 65 - 78 4% -12  3 - 8 +1 +7 D A+ B- -7 F A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 30 240 @Incarnate Word L 70 - 79 34% -4  3 - 9 1 - 3 -10 -6 F F C -4 D+ F+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 107 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 73 26% -8  3 - 10 1 - 4 -9 -4 D+ C+ D -5 C+ D+ A
 Mon, Jan 5 205 Lamar W 60 - 52 50% +9  4 - 10 2 - 4 +2 -4 C+ F A +7 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 82 @McNeese St. L 61 - 73 8% -7  4 - 11 2 - 5 -2 -1 D B+ D -3 D- A B+
 Mon, Jan 12 220 New Orleans L 76 - 79 53% -1  4 - 12 2 - 6 -10 -2 F C+ C+ -7 B- F A
 Sat, Jan 17 189 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 56 - 68 26% -14  4 - 13 2 - 7 -11 -13 D F+ F +2 D- D A+
 Mon, Jan 19 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 65 - 68 26% -4  4 - 14 2 - 8 -2 -1 C F B- -1 C C+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 255 Nicholls St. W 67 - 61 60% +2  5 - 14 3 - 8 -2 -10 F F D- +8 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Jan 27 82 McNeese St. L 66 - 76 18% -8  5 - 15 3 - 9 -6 -2 C D+ F+ -4 D B- A
 Sat, Jan 31 107 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 12%
 Mon, Feb 2 205 @Lamar L 63 - 69 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 300 Houston Christian W 71 - 66 70%
 Mon, Feb 9 240 Incarnate Word W 69 - 67 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 268 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 71 40%
 Mon, Feb 16 311 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 68 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 68 47%
 Mon, Feb 23 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 66 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 255 @Nicholls St. L 68 - 72 37%
 Mon, Mar 2 220 @New Orleans L 72 - 77 31%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 15 -6 -6 D- D C- +1 C C- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.2 2.1 0.1 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 6.2 5.7 0.5 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.5 6.1 9.7 1.6 0.0 17.9 9th
10th 0.3 5.1 10.8 3.3 0.1 19.5 10th
11th 0.2 3.4 10.4 4.8 0.3 19.3 11th
12th 0.6 3.7 7.0 3.8 0.5 15.6 12th
Total 0.6 3.9 10.7 19.8 23.0 20.3 12.9 6.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 0.0% 0.0
12-10 0.4% 0.4
11-11 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 2.0
10-12 6.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.2
9-13 12.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.9
8-14 20.3% 20.3
7-15 23.0% 23.0
6-16 19.8% 19.8
5-17 10.7% 10.7
4-18 3.9% 3.9
3-19 0.6% 0.6
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%