The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.9 #351
Expected Predictive Rating -13.1 #347
Pace 62.8 #333
Improvement +4.2 #25

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #312 D+ D+ D D+ C
Defense #354 F+ C- D- C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #279 1.03 #317 -4.2 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #235 0.69 #279 -1.6 #265
Three Pointers 47% #60 0.96 #258 +1.7 #123
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #304 -4.1 #303
Freethrows 0.28 #244 69% #290 0.20 #260
Second Chance 27.8% #258 0.99 #247 0.28 #266
Turnovers 18.5% #306
Total Offense -5.4 #312

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.33 #349 -4.7 #330
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #347 0.84 #305 +1.9 #52
Three Pointers 45% #67 1.11 #298 -4.3 #333
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #355 -7.2 #356
Freethrows 0.30 #171 71% #119 0.21 #150
Second Chance 32.9% #283 1.06 #199 0.35 #255
Turnovers 13.2% #342
Total Defense -7.5 #354

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #174 2.0% #337
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.3% #316 11.8% #353
Possession Length 19.7 #353 17.0 #112
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #344 0.20 #281
Improvement -0.6 #219 +4.8 #6

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.6% 3.8% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.4% 4.2% 34.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 45 - 126 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 132 @Boston College L 47 - 76 6% -11  0 - 1 -24 -17 F D- D- -10 C D+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 234 Charleston Southern L 86 - 96 29% -0  0 - 2 -17 +8 A+ F C -25 F F F
 Fri, Nov 14 328 @West Georgia L 92 - 100 29% -8  0 - 3 -15 +8 C+ F+ A- -23 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 303 Bellarmine L 58 - 70 44% -5  0 - 4 -23 -17 F C F -8 D+ C F
 Wed, Nov 26 300 Houston Christian L 65 - 72 43% -6  0 - 5 -18 -3 F+ C+ B- -17 F F C
 Sun, Nov 30 269 Presbyterian L 41 - 69 25% -19  0 - 6 -34 -22 F D F -20 F F D
 Thu, Dec 4 136 @Davidson L 63 - 79 6% -9  0 - 7 -11 -0 B- D F+ -13 C D F
 Sat, Dec 13 90 @South Carolina L 55 - 71 3% -5  0 - 8 -7 -10 F+ F+ B- +2 A C- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 160 @College of Charleston L 78 - 82 8% +2  0 - 9 -1 +4 B D+ F+ -5 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 117 @Richmond L 56 - 80 5% -11  0 - 10 -18 -10 C D- F -10 F B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 30 130 East Tennessee St. L 49 - 74 14% -13  0 - 11 0 - 1 -26 -19 F B- F -10 D D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 211 Wofford L 86 - 95 26% -8  0 - 12 0 - 2 -15 +12 A- A+ F -28 F B+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 150 @Mercer L 63 - 101 7% -21  0 - 13 0 - 3 -35 -6 C- B F -31 F F C
 Sat, Jan 10 274 Western Carolina W 79 - 77 OT 36% -2  1 - 13 1 - 3 -7 -0 F+ A- C- -7 C B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 305 @UNC Greensboro L 66 - 69 OT 24% +4  1 - 14 1 - 4 -8 -11 D F F +3 C B D
 Sat, Jan 17 353 @VMI W 82 - 68 40% +10  2 - 14 2 - 4 +4 +6 B F D -1 F A- C
 Wed, Jan 21 158 Furman W 77 - 75 OT 17% -6  3 - 14 3 - 4 -1 +3 D+ B- C+ -4 C A- F+
 Fri, Jan 23 130 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 84 6% -18  3 - 15 3 - 5 -24 -10 D- F A- -17 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 353 VMI W 74 - 71 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 305 UNC Greensboro L 73 - 74 44%
 Thu, Feb 5 239 @Samford L 67 - 79 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 254 @Chattanooga L 65 - 76 16%
 Wed, Feb 11 274 @Western Carolina L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 14 150 Mercer L 71 - 81 16%
 Thu, Feb 19 239 Samford L 70 - 76 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 254 Chattanooga L 68 - 73 34%
 Wed, Feb 25 158 @Furman L 62 - 78 7%
 Sat, Feb 28 211 @Wofford L 67 - 80 12%
Totals 6 - 22 6 - 12 -13 -5 D+ D+ D -8 F+ C- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 3.5 0.3 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.1 6.9 1.4 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.3 4.9 12.3 4.1 0.1 21.8 8th
9th 2.8 15.7 21.8 8.5 0.6 49.4 9th
10th 2.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.4 10th
Total 5.7 18.7 27.5 24.2 14.7 6.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.5% 0.5
9-9 1.9% 1.9
8-10 6.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.7
7-11 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.7
6-12 24.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.1
5-13 27.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.5
4-14 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.7
3-15 5.7% 5.7
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.5%