The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.8#361
Expected Predictive Rating-20.2#361
Pace62.8#334
Improvement+0.8#122

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#317
First Shot-5.1#317
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#204
Layup/Dunks-1.6#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#239
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#197
Freethrows-1.8#291
Improvement-2.1#327

Defense
Total Defense-9.3#364
First Shot-7.2#358
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#311
Layups/Dunks-6.1#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#119
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#281
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+2.9#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 2.6% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 69.2% 58.1% 69.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 5.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 43 - 144 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 148 @Boston College L 47-76 5%     0 - 1 -25.3 -18.2 -8.9
  Mon, Nov 10 267 Charleston Southern L 86-96 27%     0 - 2 -18.6 +7.7 -26.0
  Fri, Nov 14 314 @West Georgia L 92-100 20%     0 - 3 -14.0 +8.9 -22.3
  Mon, Nov 24 295 Bellarmine L 58-70 33%     0 - 4 -22.4 -13.9 -10.4
  Wed, Nov 26 274 Houston Christian L 65-72 29%     0 - 5 -15.9 -1.4 -15.9
  Sun, Nov 30 263 Presbyterian L 41-69 19%     0 - 6 -33.5 -20.9 -20.7
  Thu, Dec 4 127 @Davidson L 63-79 4%     0 - 7 -10.8 -1.3 -11.1
  Sat, Dec 13 87 @South Carolina L 55-71 2%     0 - 8 -6.9 -10.0 +2.1
  Wed, Dec 17 170 @College of Charleston L 63-80 6%    
  Sat, Dec 20 102 @Richmond L 62-84 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 123 East Tennessee St. L 64-79 8%    
  Sat, Jan 3 246 Wofford L 68-75 25%    
  Wed, Jan 7 168 @Mercer L 67-84 6%    
  Sat, Jan 10 296 Western Carolina L 71-75 35%    
  Thu, Jan 15 281 @UNC Greensboro L 67-78 15%    
  Sat, Jan 17 331 @VMI L 69-76 25%    
  Wed, Jan 21 151 Furman L 65-77 13%    
  Sat, Jan 24 123 @East Tennessee St. L 61-82 3%    
  Thu, Jan 29 331 VMI L 72-73 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 281 UNC Greensboro L 70-75 31%    
  Thu, Feb 5 237 @Samford L 66-80 11%    
  Sat, Feb 7 225 @Chattanooga L 65-79 10%    
  Wed, Feb 11 296 @Western Carolina L 68-78 17%    
  Sat, Feb 14 168 Mercer L 70-81 16%    
  Thu, Feb 19 237 Samford L 69-77 25%    
  Sat, Feb 21 225 Chattanooga L 68-76 23%    
  Wed, Feb 25 151 @Furman L 62-80 5%    
  Sat, Feb 28 246 @Wofford L 65-78 12%    
Projected Record 3 - 25 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 3.4 0.9 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 6.3 8.6 5.4 1.3 0.1 24.0 9th
10th 6.1 13.8 17.2 13.0 5.3 1.1 0.1 56.6 10th
Total 6.1 14.0 19.3 19.6 15.8 11.3 6.8 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 9.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 4.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
8-10 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
7-11 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
5-13 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
4-14 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
3-15 19.6% 19.6
2-16 19.3% 19.3
1-17 14.0% 14.0
0-18 6.1% 6.1
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.2%