Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#225
Expected Predictive Rating-8.8#300
Pace65.4#287
Improvement+3.0#23

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#157
First Shot+2.5#103
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#316
Layup/Dunks-2.8#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#40
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement+0.5#138

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#311
First Shot-2.3#252
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#301
Layups/Dunks+2.4#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#310
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+2.6#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 8.6% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 36.7% 47.3% 24.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.7% 72.5% 62.4%
Conference Champion 7.1% 8.6% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.5% 2.7%
First Four2.0% 1.7% 2.3%
First Round6.5% 7.8% 4.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 411 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 39 @St. Mary's L 66-87 5%     0 - 1 -5.9 +4.7 -11.4
  Sat, Nov 8 141 @UNLV L 69-101 22%     0 - 2 -27.6 +0.3 -28.9
  Sat, Nov 15 185 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73-91 31%     0 - 3 -16.6 +0.4 -17.2
  Wed, Nov 19 360 @South Carolina St. W 78-66 78%     1 - 3 +0.3 -1.8 +1.7
  Sat, Nov 22 195 North Alabama W 71-57 57%     2 - 3 +8.6 +7.1 +3.7
  Sun, Nov 30 235 Tennessee St. L 64-70 63%     2 - 4 -13.1 -4.6 -8.9
  Sat, Dec 6 214 Southeast Missouri St. L 70-74 60%     2 - 5 -10.3 -0.8 -9.7
  Sat, Dec 13 28 Auburn L 78-92 6%     2 - 6 +0.4 +9.4 -9.0
  Wed, Dec 17 295 @Bellarmine W 76-75 53%    
  Sun, Dec 21 290 @Alabama A&M W 71-70 52%    
  Thu, Jan 1 281 @UNC Greensboro L 74-75 49%    
  Sat, Jan 3 331 @VMI W 76-72 63%    
  Wed, Jan 7 151 Furman L 72-73 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 237 Samford W 76-73 63%    
  Wed, Jan 14 246 @Wofford L 73-75 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 296 @Western Carolina W 76-75 53%    
  Wed, Jan 21 123 East Tennessee St. L 72-76 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 237 @Samford L 73-76 41%    
  Thu, Jan 29 246 Wofford W 76-72 65%    
  Sun, Feb 1 151 @Furman L 69-76 26%    
  Thu, Feb 5 168 Mercer W 78-77 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 361 The Citadel W 79-65 90%    
  Wed, Feb 11 123 @East Tennessee St. L 69-79 20%    
  Sat, Feb 14 296 Western Carolina W 79-72 72%    
  Thu, Feb 19 168 @Mercer L 75-81 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 361 @The Citadel W 76-68 77%    
  Thu, Feb 26 281 UNC Greensboro W 77-71 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 331 VMI W 79-69 81%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.7 5.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.4 5.5 1.4 0.1 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.5 4.9 1.0 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.5 4.0 0.8 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.4 3.0 0.6 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.9 9.0 11.6 13.6 14.1 13.5 10.7 7.9 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 95.6% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
15-3 78.1% 1.9    1.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 46.6% 2.1    1.0 0.9 0.2
13-5 19.5% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 3.7 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 38.3% 38.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.8% 30.3% 30.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6
15-3 2.4% 23.2% 23.2% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.8
14-4 4.5% 19.9% 19.9% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.6
13-5 7.9% 16.1% 16.1% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 6.6
12-6 10.7% 11.0% 11.0% 15.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 9.6
11-7 13.5% 8.1% 8.1% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 12.4
10-8 14.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.1 0.7 13.2
9-9 13.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 13.0
8-10 11.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 11.3
7-11 9.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.9
6-12 5.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.9
5-13 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 3.7 92.7 0.0%