Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#237
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#204
Pace69.2#192
Improvement+1.5#79

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#181
First Shot-1.3#214
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#138
Layup/Dunks-1.9#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#145
Freethrows-0.2#195
Improvement-0.7#237

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#287
First Shot-4.1#311
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#136
Layups/Dunks-1.5#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#343
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#209
Freethrows+0.9#126
Improvement+2.2#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.2% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 52.1% 62.2% 35.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.0% 73.9% 47.9%
Conference Champion 5.3% 7.3% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.9% 4.5%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.4%
First Round5.7% 6.7% 3.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 61.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 206 @Tulane L 72-85 35%     0 - 1 -13.0 +2.3 -16.3
  Fri, Nov 7 360 South Carolina St. W 82-72 89%     1 - 1 -7.7 -0.6 -7.4
  Wed, Nov 12 318 @Texas Southern W 93-90 OT 58%     2 - 1 -3.3 +9.5 -13.1
  Fri, Nov 14 21 @Arkansas L 75-79 3%     2 - 2 +14.6 +7.9 +6.8
  Sun, Nov 16 283 @Central Arkansas W 84-77 OT 48%     3 - 2 +3.5 +5.8 -2.8
  Wed, Nov 19 185 Florida Gulf Coast L 62-77 52%     3 - 3 -19.6 -13.3 -6.5
  Fri, Nov 21 133 @New Mexico St. L 72-81 20%     3 - 4 -4.3 +10.7 -16.1
  Tue, Nov 25 334 Georgia St. W 78-63 73%     4 - 4 +4.4 +2.1 +2.3
  Wed, Nov 26 84 Utah Valley L 45-89 15%     4 - 5 -37.2 -24.2 -11.0
  Fri, Dec 5 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57-83 6%     4 - 6 -12.1 -8.0 -4.1
  Sun, Dec 7 164 Cornell W 93-90 46%     5 - 6 -0.1 +6.0 -6.4
  Thu, Jan 1 331 @VMI W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 3 281 @UNC Greensboro L 75-76 48%    
  Wed, Jan 7 296 Western Carolina W 80-74 72%    
  Sat, Jan 10 225 @Chattanooga L 73-76 37%    
  Wed, Jan 14 151 Furman L 73-75 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 123 East Tennessee St. L 73-77 35%    
  Wed, Jan 21 246 @Wofford L 74-76 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 225 Chattanooga W 76-73 59%    
  Thu, Jan 29 151 @Furman L 70-78 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 296 @Western Carolina W 77-76 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 361 The Citadel W 80-66 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 168 Mercer L 79-80 48%    
  Wed, Feb 11 246 Wofford W 77-73 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 123 @East Tennessee St. L 70-80 18%    
  Thu, Feb 19 361 @The Citadel W 77-69 75%    
  Sat, Feb 21 168 @Mercer L 76-82 28%    
  Thu, Feb 26 331 VMI W 80-71 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 281 UNC Greensboro W 78-73 68%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.3 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.9 5.1 1.2 0.1 16.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.0 5.2 1.1 0.0 16.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.2 4.5 0.9 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.6 6.6 9.6 13.1 14.7 15.0 12.6 9.8 6.1 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 96.4% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 82.3% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.5% 1.7    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 19.7% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 28.0% 28.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 35.1% 35.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.6% 26.2% 26.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
14-4 3.5% 17.6% 17.6% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.9
13-5 6.1% 13.6% 13.6% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 5.3
12-6 9.8% 11.2% 11.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 8.7
11-7 12.6% 7.5% 7.5% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 11.7
10-8 15.0% 5.8% 5.8% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 14.1
9-9 14.7% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.1 0.5 14.1
8-10 13.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.7
7-11 9.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.5
6-12 6.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.5
5-13 3.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 2.4 93.8 0.0%