Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #239
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #240
Pace 67.9 #214
Improvement +1.1 #137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #161 D+ D A- C C
Defense #299 C- C F+ C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #247 1.19 #133 -0.8 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #210 0.68 #293 -1.4 #254
Three Pointers 45% #95 0.90 #320 -0.4 #199
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #252 -2.6 #252
Freethrows 0.33 #98 67% #334 0.22 #171
Second Chance 24.0% #338 0.99 #250 0.24 #338
Turnovers 12.4% #10
Total Offense -0.1 #161

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #196 1.11 #108 +1.2 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #11 0.86 #324 -4.8 #363
Three Pointers 33% #356 1.16 #343 +1.9 #111
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #230 -1.7 #233
Freethrows 0.28 #127 77% #347 0.22 #182
Second Chance 27.4% #75 1.16 #311 0.32 #177
Turnovers 12.4% #353
Total Defense -4.4 #299

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #185 -2.2% #28
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #268 5.7% #286
Possession Length 17.6 #198 17.4 #197
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #333 0.15 #114
Improvement +2.8 #51 -1.7 #283

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 7.0% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 26.9% 50.1% 19.9%
.500 or above in Conference 44.0% 69.4% 36.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four1.4% 1.0% 1.5%
First Round4.4% 6.7% 3.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 23.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 11
Quad 412 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 175 @Tulane L 72 - 85 28% -6  0 - 1 -11 +5 D+ B- C+ -18 F A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 359 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 89% +1  1 - 1 -8 -1 F+ D- B- -7 C- C- D-
 Wed, Nov 12 306 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 54% -1  2 - 1 -2 +8 D C B -11 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 21 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 2% -8  2 - 2 +16 +7 B- F+ A+ +9 A A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 219 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 35% -3  3 - 2 +7 +5 C F A+ +1 B- B D+
 Wed, Nov 19 232 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 60% -9  3 - 3 -22 -16 F F+ B- -7 D+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 154 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 23% -10  3 - 4 -6 +8 D- C+ A+ -15 F F+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 270 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 56% +7  4 - 4 +9 +5 C B D- +4 A+ D D-
 Wed, Nov 26 108 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 22% -23  4 - 5 -40 -27 F F D -11 D- C D+
 Fri, Dec 5 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 6% -7  4 - 6 -13 -11 F F B+ -1 C C B
 Sun, Dec 7 174 Cornell W 93 - 90 49% -3  5 - 6 -1 +3 C+ C- C -5 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 353 @VMI W 78 - 58 72% +4  6 - 6 1 - 0 +10 +2 B- F A+ +8 B A- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 305 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 54% -8  6 - 7 1 - 1 -12 +9 C- C A- -22 F+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 274 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 68% -6  7 - 7 2 - 1 -4 +6 C C A- -10 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 254 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 42% -14  7 - 8 2 - 2 -11 +1 C+ F B+ -12 D+ C F
 Wed, Jan 14 158 Furman L 73 - 77 44% -2  7 - 9 2 - 3 -7 -1 C- D- B -6 C+ C F
 Sat, Jan 17 130 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 38% -5  7 - 10 2 - 4 -2 +14 B+ C- A+ -16 D- C F
 Wed, Jan 21 211 @Wofford L 78 - 88 34% -1  7 - 11 2 - 5 -10 +8 B- C B+ -19 F C F+
 Sat, Jan 24 254 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 65% +1  8 - 11 3 - 5 +3 +7 D+ F+ A+ -3 C- C- F+
 Thu, Jan 29 158 @Furman L 70 - 78 23%
 Sat, Jan 31 274 @Western Carolina L 79 - 80 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 351 The Citadel W 79 - 67 86%
 Sat, Feb 7 150 Mercer L 80 - 82 42%
 Wed, Feb 11 211 Wofford W 79 - 77 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 130 @East Tennessee St. L 69 - 78 20%
 Thu, Feb 19 351 @The Citadel W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 150 @Mercer L 77 - 85 23%
 Thu, Feb 26 353 VMI W 82 - 70 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 305 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 75 74%
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 10 -4 +0 D+ D A- -4 C- C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.3 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.3 6.2 2.2 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 5.9 13.6 6.3 0.3 26.5 5th
6th 0.2 5.1 12.9 6.3 0.4 24.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 9.5 5.7 0.5 17.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.4 3.5 0.5 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.2 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.7 9.1 18.5 25.1 22.6 14.1 5.7 1.4 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 57.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 12.1% 12.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 1.4% 14.6% 14.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
11-7 5.7% 10.8% 10.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 5.1
10-8 14.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 12.9
9-9 22.6% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 21.3
8-10 25.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.1 1.0 24.0
7-11 18.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 18.1
6-12 9.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 9.0
5-13 2.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 15.5 95.0 0.0%