VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.4#331
Expected Predictive Rating-11.5#322
Pace67.7#228
Improvement+1.4#81

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#275
First Shot-4.3#296
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#155
Layup/Dunks-7.6#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#82
Freethrows-0.9#237
Improvement+1.7#60

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#347
First Shot-0.6#197
After Offensive Rebounds-5.8#363
Layups/Dunks-0.1#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#258
Freethrows+2.3#57
Improvement-0.3#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 3.5% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 12.5% 17.4% 11.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 24.8% 18.9% 26.4%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 22.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 108 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 317 @Southern Indiana W 78-74 34%     1 - 0 -2.3 -4.2 +1.5
  Sun, Nov 9 48 @Missouri L 68-106 2%     1 - 1 -24.0 -5.6 -15.5
  Sat, Nov 15 305 Jacksonville L 67-69 52%     1 - 2 -12.9 -6.9 -6.2
  Wed, Nov 19 102 @Richmond L 54-87 6%     1 - 3 -25.3 -11.8 -15.5
  Sat, Nov 22 347 @Stetson L 80-99 44%     1 - 4 -27.9 +7.6 -36.6
  Mon, Nov 24 216 Buffalo L 70-78 25%     1 - 5 -11.4 -3.4 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 26 124 Bowling Green L 48-81 12%     1 - 6 -30.6 -19.8 -12.4
  Sat, Nov 29 57 @Central Florida L 57-82 3%     1 - 7 -12.5 -10.3 -2.9
  Tue, Dec 9 339 Loyola Maryland W 86-70 64%     2 - 7 +1.9 +14.6 -10.8
  Sun, Dec 21 255 @Radford L 75-83 22%    
  Thu, Jan 1 237 Samford L 74-77 38%    
  Sat, Jan 3 225 Chattanooga L 72-76 37%    
  Wed, Jan 7 123 @East Tennessee St. L 66-82 6%    
  Sat, Jan 10 151 @Furman L 66-80 10%    
  Thu, Jan 15 168 Mercer L 75-82 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 361 The Citadel W 76-69 75%    
  Wed, Jan 21 281 UNC Greensboro L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 296 @Western Carolina L 73-79 29%    
  Thu, Jan 29 361 @The Citadel W 73-72 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 168 @Mercer L 72-85 13%    
  Wed, Feb 4 246 Wofford L 72-75 41%    
  Sat, Feb 7 123 East Tennessee St. L 69-79 18%    
  Wed, Feb 11 281 @UNC Greensboro L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Feb 14 151 Furman L 69-77 24%    
  Wed, Feb 18 246 @Wofford L 69-78 22%    
  Sat, Feb 21 296 Western Carolina L 75-76 49%    
  Thu, Feb 26 237 @Samford L 71-80 20%    
  Sat, Feb 28 225 @Chattanooga L 69-79 19%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.3 1.8 0.2 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.0 5.8 2.8 0.3 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.7 7.4 3.2 0.4 20.2 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 6.0 9.9 7.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 28.7 9th
10th 0.5 2.8 4.7 4.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 15.7 10th
Total 0.5 3.0 6.5 10.9 14.7 16.0 14.5 12.2 9.3 6.2 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 62.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 61.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 32.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 8.8% 8.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.7% 6.4% 6.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.9% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.8
10-8 3.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.2
9-9 6.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 6.0
8-10 9.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.2
7-11 12.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.2
6-12 14.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.4
5-13 16.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-14 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
3-15 10.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.9
2-16 6.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.5
1-17 3.0% 3.0
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%