VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.3 #353
Expected Predictive Rating -14.3 #351
Pace 67.3 #227
Improvement -2.0 #278

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #313 F+ D+ C C- C
Defense #358 D- F C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #343 0.98 #350 -7.3 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #293 0.71 #245 -2.3 #295
Three Pointers 54% #7 0.85 #345 +2.1 #115
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #354 -7.5 #354
Freethrows 0.30 #209 69% #283 0.21 #222
Second Chance 28.2% #250 0.95 #305 0.27 #280
Turnovers 16.5% #182
Total Offense -5.5 #313

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #181 1.28 #324 -2.7 #269
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #246 0.87 #327 -0.1 #193
Three Pointers 43% #120 1.12 #307 -3.2 #310
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #341 -6.0 #341
Freethrows 0.31 #226 72% #197 0.23 #227
Second Chance 40.8% #363 1.06 #206 0.43 #356
Turnovers 16.5% #176
Total Defense -7.9 #358

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #176 0.7% #224
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.8% #359 10.9% #344
Possession Length 19.1 #335 16.0 #21
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #334 0.23 #337
Improvement -1.3 #249 -0.7 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 91.6% 80.5% 98.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 36.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 45 - 125 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 322 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 26% -3  1 - 0 -3 -3 F+ C- B- -0 C- C+ D
 Sun, Nov 9 56 @Missouri L 68 - 106 2% -11  1 - 1 -25 -5 B- F F -17 B- F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 285 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 38% -3  1 - 2 -12 -6 F+ A+ F -6 F+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 117 @Richmond L 54 - 87 5% -21  1 - 3 -27 -14 D C- F -16 F D+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 329 @Stetson L 80 - 99 29% -9  1 - 4 -26 +8 D D+ A+ -35 F F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 185 Buffalo L 70 - 78 14% -1  1 - 5 -10 -3 F B+ A -7 C D+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 145 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 10% -22  1 - 6 -32 -22 F F D+ -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 49 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 1% -9  1 - 7 -11 -9 F C- D+ -3 A A D-
 Tue, Dec 9 317 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 46% +15  2 - 7 +4 +16 A- C A+ -11 C F C
 Sun, Dec 21 253 @Radford L 90 - 97 15% -2  2 - 8 -9 +10 C A+ D -19 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 239 Samford L 58 - 78 28% -4  2 - 9 0 - 1 -27 -18 F F D -10 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 254 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 31% +8  3 - 9 1 - 1 -0 +2 C+ D- D -2 B+ F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 130 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 6% -10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -9 +0 D- F A+ -10 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 158 @Furman L 48 - 69 7% -10  3 - 11 1 - 3 -18 -20 F D+ F +1 C F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 150 Mercer L 67 - 77 16% -2  3 - 12 1 - 4 -13 -5 C+ F C- -8 A- F A
 Sat, Jan 17 351 The Citadel L 68 - 82 60% -10  3 - 13 1 - 5 -30 -12 D- F D- -19 F A C
 Wed, Jan 21 305 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 85 43% -6  3 - 14 1 - 6 -18 +1 F A- B -20 D- D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 274 @Western Carolina L 58 - 88 17% -12  3 - 15 1 - 7 -33 -6 F D C+ -33 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 351 @The Citadel L 71 - 74 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 150 @Mercer L 71 - 88 6%
 Wed, Feb 4 211 Wofford L 73 - 80 25%
 Sat, Feb 7 130 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 78 12%
 Wed, Feb 11 305 @UNC Greensboro L 73 - 81 23%
 Sat, Feb 14 158 Furman L 68 - 78 16%
 Wed, Feb 18 211 @Wofford L 70 - 83 11%
 Sat, Feb 21 274 Western Carolina L 76 - 80 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 239 @Samford L 70 - 82 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 254 @Chattanooga L 68 - 79 15%
Totals 5 - 23 3 - 15 -13 -5 F+ D+ C -8 D- F C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.2 3.3 8th
9th 1.9 6.6 5.3 0.8 0.0 14.5 9th
10th 13.2 28.3 26.0 11.5 1.8 0.1 80.8 10th
Total 13.2 28.3 27.9 18.2 8.5 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.1% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.9% 0.9
6-12 3.0% 3.0
5-13 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.4
4-14 18.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.1
3-15 27.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.8
2-16 28.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 28.3
1-17 13.2% 13.2
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.5%