Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.5 #150
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #144
Pace 74.2 #51
Improvement -0.7 #223

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #109 C+ C+ C+ C+ C-
Defense #237 D+ C C+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 1.27 #73 +0.4 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #130 0.75 #191 +0.8 #136
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.04 #160 +0.5 #153
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #130 +1.8 #129
Freethrows 0.31 #146 74% #117 0.23 #130
Second Chance 33.8% #93 1.06 #155 0.36 #101
Turnovers 15.6% #126
Total Offense +2.4 #109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.09 #89 +0.2 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.85 #319 -1.1 #276
Three Pointers 38% #256 1.18 #352 -1.9 #275
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #271 -2.8 #272
Freethrows 0.25 #41 73% #233 0.18 #47
Second Chance 33.1% #288 0.95 #58 0.31 #169
Turnovers 17.1% #136
Total Defense -1.9 #237

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #251 0.2% #186
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.4% #106 5.3% #279
Possession Length 16.6 #108 16.8 #90
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #89 0.21 #301
Improvement -0.2 #190 -0.5 #221

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.2% 24.0% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 97.4% 98.3% 92.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.5% 94.8%
Conference Champion 21.3% 23.3% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round23.2% 23.9% 18.0%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Home) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 415 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 20 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 4% -11  0 - 1 +5 -2 F D+ A+ +7 B+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 169 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 65% +8  1 - 1 +11 +20 A+ A+ A+ -8 C- D- C
 Sat, Nov 15 126 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 33% -16  1 - 2 -31 -12 F+ D F -14 F D+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 263 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 62% +11  2 - 2 +9 +16 A+ B F -7 C C D+
 Wed, Nov 26 200 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 72% -3  3 - 2 +2 +10 C- A C -7 B- D D-
 Sat, Nov 29 193 @Elon W 91 - 84 48% +1  4 - 2 +8 +7 C F+ A- +0 B+ B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 270 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 82% +5  5 - 2 +2 +2 D+ B- C+ -0 F A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 32 @Clemson L 63 - 70 7% +0  5 - 3 +10 +7 A D- A- +3 C A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 49 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 11% -10  5 - 4 -4 -6 D- C+ F +2 B+ B+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 131 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 34% -4  5 - 5 -1 +0 C- C- B- -1 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 158 @Furman L 72 - 74 40% -3  5 - 6 0 - 1 +1 +4 D- B A -3 D B D
 Sat, Jan 3 130 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 34% -1  5 - 7 0 - 2 -1 +4 C D- C+ -5 A- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 351 The Citadel W 101 - 63 93% +21  6 - 7 1 - 2 +22 +26 A+ A+ D- -1 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 211 Wofford W 109 - 97 74% +7  7 - 7 2 - 2 +6 +22 A+ A+ D+ -17 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 353 @VMI W 77 - 67 84% +2  8 - 7 3 - 2 -0 +2 F A+ F+ -2 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 305 @UNC Greensboro W 102 - 92 72% +12  9 - 7 4 - 2 +5 +18 A+ A+ F -14 F B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 274 Western Carolina W 88 - 76 82% +14  10 - 7 5 - 2 +3 +9 D- A+ A -6 C F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 211 @Wofford L 77 - 80 52% -1  10 - 8 5 - 3 -3 +2 C F C+ -5 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 29 305 UNC Greensboro W 88 - 76 87%
 Sat, Jan 31 353 VMI W 88 - 71 94%
 Thu, Feb 5 254 @Chattanooga W 80 - 77 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 239 @Samford W 82 - 80 58%
 Wed, Feb 11 158 Furman W 78 - 75 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 351 @The Citadel W 81 - 71 84%
 Thu, Feb 19 254 Chattanooga W 83 - 74 79%
 Sat, Feb 21 239 Samford W 85 - 77 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 274 @Western Carolina W 85 - 81 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 130 East Tennessee St. W 78 - 76 56%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 6 +0 +2 C+ C+ C+ -2 D+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 6.0 9.5 4.9 21.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 11.5 16.5 5.7 0.4 36.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 9.1 10.0 2.6 0.1 23.6 3rd
4th 0.9 5.3 5.4 1.3 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.2 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 8.9 17.3 23.6 25.1 15.3 5.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 92.4% 4.9    3.7 1.2 0.0
14-4 62.2% 9.5    4.1 4.8 0.6 0.0
13-5 23.9% 6.0    1.0 2.9 1.9 0.2
12-6 3.6% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.3% 21.3 8.8 9.2 2.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 5.3% 37.9% 37.9% 12.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.3
14-4 15.3% 31.9% 31.9% 13.5 0.2 2.3 2.2 0.3 10.4
13-5 25.1% 26.3% 26.3% 13.9 0.0 1.6 3.8 1.3 18.5
12-6 23.6% 22.4% 22.4% 14.2 0.7 2.9 1.7 0.0 18.3
11-7 17.3% 15.8% 15.8% 14.5 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.1 14.6
10-8 8.9% 12.6% 12.6% 14.9 0.2 0.8 0.1 7.8
9-9 3.3% 12.7% 12.7% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.9
8-10 1.0% 6.9% 6.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9
7-11 0.1% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 14.0 76.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 12.7 1.2 35.6 52.7 10.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%