UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.4 #305
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #292
Pace 68.0 #206
Improvement -2.2 #288

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #200 D+ D+ C+ B- D+
Defense #349 D- C- F+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #267 1.14 #197 -2.2 #260
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #83 0.69 #281 +1.1 #116
Three Pointers 39% #218 0.98 #233 -1.7 #242
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #260 -2.8 #257
Freethrows 0.36 #22 69% #284 0.25 #72
Second Chance 26.9% #279 1.04 #193 0.28 #259
Turnovers 15.3% #110
Total Offense -1.3 #200

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #283 1.29 #329 -0.3 #186
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.76 #182 +0.1 #175
Three Pointers 45% #74 1.18 #348 -5.5 #351
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #336 -5.6 #335
Freethrows 0.26 #53 70% #69 0.18 #45
Second Chance 29.7% #141 1.17 #319 0.35 #258
Turnovers 12.7% #348
Total Defense -7.1 #349

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #296 -0.4% #132
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.9% #244 11.5% #349
Possession Length 17.5 #182 16.7 #78
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #291 0.15 #128
Improvement +1.6 #98 -3.9 #347

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 28.2% 56.6% 23.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.3% 2.2%
First Four1.0% 1.7% 0.9%
First Round0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Away) - 13.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 49 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 87 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 6% -7  0 - 1 -19 -12 D F F -4 D D A-
 Sat, Nov 8 193 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 37% -1  0 - 2 -7 +6 A- F C+ -13 C- B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 24 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 1% -15  0 - 3 -27 -4 F D+ C -20 D+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 172 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 33% -3  0 - 4 -10 -12 D- F B +3 B- C+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 199 @Queens L 94 - 101 20% -8  0 - 5 -7 +20 B- B+ A+ -27 F D F
 Sun, Nov 23 221 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 32% -9  1 - 5 +2 -8 D+ F+ F +11 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 278 Delaware L 60 - 73 43% -1  1 - 6 -20 -10 F F C -11 F A C-
 Wed, Nov 26 91 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 10% +1  1 - 7 -5 -4 D- A- F -1 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 204 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 29% -0  1 - 8 -8 +9 A+ C D+ -17 F F+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 262 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 28% +2  2 - 8 +1 +11 D A+ C+ -10 D+ F A-
 Tue, Dec 16 293 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 58% -6  2 - 9 -16 -9 F C B+ -8 C C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 1 254 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 49% +1  3 - 9 1 - 0 -3 +3 C C F+ -6 F A D+
 Sat, Jan 3 239 Samford W 89 - 82 46% +8  4 - 9 2 - 0 -0 +17 C+ B A+ -17 F+ F D-
 Wed, Jan 7 211 @Wofford L 85 - 97 21% -11  4 - 10 2 - 1 -12 +11 B- B B -23 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 130 @East Tennessee St. L 60 - 86 11% -10  4 - 11 2 - 2 -21 -12 F B F -9 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 351 The Citadel W 69 - 66 OT 76% -4  5 - 11 3 - 2 -13 -11 F F C -1 D A D+
 Sat, Jan 17 150 Mercer L 92 - 102 28% -12  5 - 12 3 - 3 -13 +11 B+ F+ A+ -23 F F B+
 Wed, Jan 21 353 @VMI W 85 - 78 57% +6  6 - 12 4 - 3 -3 +11 D+ D A+ -14 D+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 158 Furman L 66 - 89 30% -5  6 - 13 4 - 4 -26 -1 C D C+ -27 F C F
 Thu, Jan 29 150 @Mercer L 76 - 88 13%
 Sat, Jan 31 351 @The Citadel W 74 - 73 56%
 Wed, Feb 4 274 Western Carolina W 80 - 79 53%
 Sun, Feb 8 158 @Furman L 69 - 81 14%
 Wed, Feb 11 353 VMI W 81 - 73 77%
 Sat, Feb 14 211 Wofford L 78 - 80 41%
 Wed, Feb 18 274 @Western Carolina L 77 - 82 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 130 East Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 24%
 Thu, Feb 26 254 @Chattanooga L 73 - 79 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 239 @Samford L 75 - 82 26%
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 10 -8 -1 D+ D+ C+ -7 D- C- F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.3 5.0 9.2 4.1 0.4 0.0 19.0 5th
6th 0.1 4.6 11.6 4.5 0.3 21.0 6th
7th 0.0 3.1 11.9 6.1 0.4 21.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.9 10.8 6.8 0.7 21.3 8th
9th 0.8 3.6 2.7 0.3 7.3 9th
10th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 1.1 6.7 16.7 23.9 23.4 15.7 8.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 42.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.7% 6.1% 6.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 3.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.2
10-8 8.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 8.2
9-9 15.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 15.5
8-10 23.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 23.2
7-11 23.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 23.7
6-12 16.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.6
5-13 6.7% 6.7
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%